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The Carolina Hurricanes managed to add two major pieces for their upcoming playoff run ahead of the NHL trade deadline, finalizing a trade for forward Jake Guentzel late last night, before adding Evgeny Kuznetsov from the Washington Capitals this morning.
In exchange for Guentzel, the Hurricanes sent back a huge package of players and picks to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Heading back the other way is forward Michael Bunting, along with prospects Vasily Ponomarev, Ville Koivunen, Cruz Lucius, a conditional 2024 second-round pick and a conditional 2024 fifth-round pick. The second-round pick will upgrade to a first-round pick if the Hurricanes reach the Stanley Cup Final, and the fifth-round pick will be transferred if Carolina wins the Stanley Cup.
As part of the trade, the Hurricanes also acquired defenseman Ty Smith.
Guentzel was possibly the biggest trade piece available at the deadline, and immediately makes the Hurricanes’ top-six a lot more dangerous. He’s spent his entire career with the Penguins to this point, winning a Stanley Cup in his rookie year back in 2017. This season, Guentzel scored 22 goals and 52 points in 50 games. While he’s been out of action since February 14, he was on the ice yesterday prior to the trade and shouldn’t be too far off from a return.
The Hurricanes typically aren’t a team to give up much for a rental, so signs point to the fact that Carolina will do what they can to re-sign Guentzel. While it’s a huge swing for the Hurricanes and Guentzel could be the missing piece to lift the team over the edge, the package they sent back wasn’t insignificant.
Guentzel is obviously a huge upgrade over Michael Bunting, but Bunting was able to provide the impact he was expected to in his limited time with Carolina. He scored 36 points in 60 games, a pace of 49 points per 82, and was able to add some intensity while being versatile enough to move around the lineup if needed. He also had two more years remaining at a $4.5 million cap hit. Obviously, if the Hurricanes can extend Guentzel, Bunting’s loss won’t be felt in future years, but if Guentzel were to walk in the offseason, the Hurricanes would be in a worse spot than if they’d held onto Bunting.
In terms of the prospects dealt away – Carolina benefits from a strong prospect pool, which helped them in being able to make this deal.
Ponomarev is already putting up good numbers in the AHL, scoring 29 points in 39 games with the Chicago Wolves this season. The former second-round pick played his first two NHL games this season, scoring a goal and an assist over that call-up, and at just 21 years old, Ponomarev could certainly turn out to be a solid, middle-six NHL center.
Koivunen, another former second-round pick, has also made some progress in his development, with somewhat of a breakout season this year in Finland. Playing in the country’s top professional league, he’s scored 21 goals and 55 points in 57 games. With Koivunen still just 20 years old, he has a good shot to make an impact with the Penguins upon making the jump to North America full-time.
Then with Cruz Lucius, the former fourth-round pick has posted great numbers in the NCAA, scoring at point-per-game numbers with Wisconsin over the last two seasons.
In terms of the draft picks moved though, the Hurricanes seemingly got off a little easy, possibly based on the quality of prospects they gave up. Carolina will only give up their second-round pick this year, unless they reach the Stanley Cup final.
Even while the prospects given up were quality pieces though, the Hurricanes still managed to retain their more important pieces. They didn't lose any of their younger roster players, and top prospects like Alexander Nikishin, Bradly Nadeau and Scott Morrow were all spared as well. So while the return was sizeable, Carolina's package for Guentzel was still far from an overpayment.
Now, fair or not, the trade evaluation does at least partially hinge on 1) Carolina’s playoff success this season and/or 2) their ability to re-sign Guentzel. If the Hurricanes can win a Cup with Guentzel as a rental, or just manage to extend him long-term, this will look really good on Carolina. But if the Hurricanes suffer an early exit and Guentzel walks in free agency, it’s a bit more of a tough look. However, the Hurricanes have seemingly been very close to acquiring other top forwards in the past in deals that just couldn’t get done, and as an immediate reaction to the deal, taking a swing on Guentzel as Carolina is attempting to contend (and improve scoring) is a potentially necessary move.
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In a smaller, but still fairly significant move, the Hurricanes also added Evgeny Kuznetsov this morning, acquiring the forward from the Washington Capitals for a 2025 third-round pick. As part of the trade, Washington will retain 50 percent of Kuznetsov’s salary.
Kuznetsov has spent his entire career with the Capitals to this point, winning a Stanley Cup with the team in 2018. He’s had a tough couple years with the organization though, and after managing just 17 points in 41 games this season, Kuznetsov ended up on waivers. He has one more year on his contract, at a reduced $3.9 million cap hit for Carolina.
The center needed a change of scenery, but there’s reason to think Kuznetsov could bounce back to an extent with Carolina. He’s still only two years removed from posting a point-per-game pace in the 2021-22 season, and still managed 55 points last season as well. Ever since the Hurricanes parted ways with Vincent Trocheck, they haven’t really had a clear, second-line center in their lineup. With limited term remaining, the deal carries more potential upside than it does risk, and Kuznetsov finding his game again could ultimately have a major impact on Carolina’s playoff chances.
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