At the trade deadline, the New York Islanders made some big moves, acquiring center Jean-Gabriel Pageau from Ottawa and defenseman Andy Greene from New Jersey to bulk up their lineup.
Pageau is likely to be a perfect fit as the Islanders’ third-line center, while Greene was brought in to help offset the loss of Adam Pelech (who at that point, seemed to be out for the season). In the process of acquiring Pageau and Greene, the Islanders most notably gave up a first-round pick and two second-round picks. This article will address whether the Islanders made the right move by making the deals at the deadline.
To start, this isn’t simply my thoughts on either of the deals, as I’ve already done articles giving my thoughts on the individual trades. Essentially, I had said I like Pageau, though they gave up a lot for him. With Greene, I thought they paid too much for what they got but I was more okay with it after seeing them also add Pageau and choose a direction for the team. However, this article will look at whether giving up future assets for current talent was the right direction to choose.
When we look at the shape of the Islanders’ roster, the bulk of their top forwards are quite old, with the exception of Mathew Barzal and Anthony Beauvillier. Anders Lee is turning 30 years old in about a week, while Josh Bailey and Jordan Eberle have already reached that mark and Brock Nelson will be turning 29 later this year as well.
With an aging core, usually it makes sense to try and compete rather than waiting. However, by giving up those assets, the Islanders are a bit stuck heading into next season. They don’t have the cap space to sign top players to bulk up what is a deep roster that lacks star power, and they don’t have the assets to make any other significant trades. This means they’re pretty much set with the roster they have.
Now I know Pageau isn’t a rental like Greene (and I suppose Greene could be brought back, but regardless, he’s not going to be around long-term). However, the reality is the Islanders do have a limited window in the next couple of years before their players in the top-six likely start to decline and they’re stuck with bad contracts taking up their cap space. Not having assets to also trade for the top talent they're lacking in part of that window isn't a great situation.
As of now, New York also doesn’t have a deep prospect pool of forwards who could come in to replace those players in a few years. Oliver Wahlstrom is a quality asset but may not be the star we thought he’d be, while Kieffer Bellows will probably be a third-line player. Simon Holmstrom was fine in the AHL but his numbers in his first season don’t necessarily suggest he’ll be a top-line forward in the NHL.
So this raises the question as to whether it was the right decision to trade away three of their four best draft picks over the next two years for a third-line center in Jean-Gabriel Pageau and a 37-year-old rental defenseman in Andy Greene. Does trading for a third-line center and veteran defenseman really help when you can't also address more pressing needs? While both players add value to the Islanders and filled a need at the time of the trade, I hesitate to say either brings the Islanders to contender status.
Would it have been a better move to hang on to those picks and try to turn them into younger forwards who could potentially bring more upside in a few years? Chances are that with even decent drafting, at least one, maybe two of the picks could land and become quality forwards. This would have allowed the Islanders to continue filtering in younger players to go alongside the likes of Barzal and Beauvillier and replace their aging veterans down the line. It may have led to an easy transition to a core of younger players in a few years but now, the team may be at a loss for young forwards in the not so distant future.
The Islanders have a quality, competitive roster right now that’s capable of making the playoffs. However, they aren’t stronger (on paper, at least) than quite a few other teams in the conference. They’re essentially stuck in the middle with not many ways to continue propelling themselves forward, which is dangerous in a league that’s getting younger and younger. While they won't be affected by the deals in the next year or two, they could face the repercussions in a few years. So while it was nice to see the Islanders choose a direction at the deadline, it’s too early to tell if that was really the right direction to go.
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Here's today's poll question (results and discussion will be posted in a future article):
Do you believe trading away future assets for Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Andy Greene was the right direction for the Islanders?
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