While head coach Rod Brind’Amour is now locked up with a new contract, the biggest question surrounding the Carolina Hurricanes this offseason is whether defenseman Dougie Hamilton will sign an extension with the team.
Hamilton has been a key member of Carolina's defense group since being acquired three years ago and has turned into one of the league’s top offensive defensemen. This season, Hamilton had an impressive 10 goals and 42 points in 55 games and averaged nearly 23 minutes of ice time per game.
However, it seems as though Hamilton and the Hurricanes could be headed for a split.
With Hamilton’s contract expiring, we know that the Hurricanes gave Hamilton permission to speak to other teams. This allows Hamilton to compare Carolina’s offer against those of other teams, or open up the possibility of a sign-and-trade.
The other scenario is that the Hurricanes manage to work out a deal with the defender. I’ll do a more in-depth look at a possible contract soon, but as a quick prediction, Hamilton’s AAV could come out around $8 million on a max-term deal. Considering he's still just 28 years old, re-signing Hamilton would mean Carolina likely wouldn’t need to worry about a potential decline until the back half of the contract. This would give the Hurricanes several more years to contend with a top defender locked in at a reasonable price.
Still, the Hurricanes’ cap situation makes for a tricky offseason. While the team does have nearly $30 million available, their list of notable free agents – restricted or unrestricted – is as follows: Dougie Hamilton, Andrei Svechnikov, Alex Nedeljkovic, Jake Bean, Warren Foegele, Petr Mrazek, Brock McGinn, James Reimer, Jani Hakanpaa, Jordan Martinook, Morgan Geekie, and Cedric Paquette. While some of the UFAs above will walk away to other teams, there are some pretty big names in there that the Hurricanes will need to find the space to re-sign. Overpaying Hamilton could result in issues re-signing other key pieces or in turn, lose quality depth down the roster, which was a key part of Carolina’s success this year.
Losing Hamilton would be a major setback for the Hurricanes, while the team is on the verge of truly contending for a Stanley Cup. However, Don Waddell is one of the best general managers in the league when it comes to asset management and if Hamilton were to walk, you have to imagine there’s a plan in place.
Part of the reason Hamilton works so well with the Hurricanes is that he’s paired with Jaccob Slavin. While Hamilton can hold his own defensively, he’s not necessarily a stud in his own end and Slavin’s defensive reliability allows Hamilton to take some chances to produce offensively. If the Hurricanes could find a defender who still has a fairly high offensive upside and is decent in his own end, perhaps the team could use the cap space to replace Hamilton with a cheaper alternative. Obviously the replacement wouldn’t produce the same way in which Hamilton is able to, but there are likely some other options, if Waddell feels as though Hamilton’s cap hit would become an issue for Carolina’s ability to build a contender.
I’m hoping the Hurricanes do end up working out a deal with Hamilton and given the state of the market, not a ton of teams have cap space and as a result, there likely aren't too many teams looking to spend big in free agency. Building off this, something else to think about is that the Hurricanes would probably get very little out of a sign and trade. The Winnipeg Jets got only a fifth-round pick when dealing Kevin Hayes’ signing rights to the Philadelphia Flyers in 2019. While those were signing rights and not a sign-and-trade, which would allow the eighth year to be added to the contract, I doubt the Hurricanes would get much back for a pending free agent in a sign-and-trade scenario, and I’d imagine the Hurricanes know that. I think for that reason, as has been speculated, there’s a good chance that part of allowing Hamilton to talk to other teams was a negotiating tactic to show him what the market is like right now.
As a result, I think there’s a decent chance Hamilton does return to Carolina. He’s a key piece for the Hurricanes in the prime of his career and they need to do what they can to try and re-sign him at a reasonable price. If he does leave, however, I’d imagine Don Waddell has a Plan B.
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Do you think Dougie Hamilton will re-sign with the Hurricanes?
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