With the New York Islanders’ playoff run now over, the attention for the team turns to the offseason.
The Islanders are in somewhat of a similar situation as last year, with quite a few key players in need of new contracts but not a ton of cap space available. New York has less than $6 million in cap space, with Anthony Beauvillier, Adam Pelech and Ilya Sorokin all becoming restricted free agents, while Casey Cizikas, Andy Greene, Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac could all hit the open market on July 28. Even factoring in Johnny Boychuk’s contract, which can provide cap relief by placing him on long-term injured reserve later, the team needs to find a way to create some more space to keep key members of the team, while also adding offense.
While the Islanders could have some money taken off the books in the expansion draft, it would mean losing a roster player that they’d probably have to look to replace afterwards. This means that we could be looking at multiple players leaving the team in the offseason and one name that should be a key focus is Semyon Varlamov.
Varlamov is coming off one of the best years of his career, posting an excellent .929 save percentage with seven shutouts in 36 games. He still has two years remaining on his contract at a $5 million AAV.
However, Ilya Sorokin also proved to be very capable of providing quality goaltending for the team in just his first NHL season. At just 25 years old, Sorokin looks to be a future franchise goalie and given his play this season, he looks ready to take on a larger role with the team next season.
While Varlamov was a major factor in New York’s success this year, he's 33 years old and if the Islanders have to pick between goalies, committing to Sorokin just makes more sense long-term. Moving Varlamov may be the one of the best ways for the team to clear cap space without attaching assets and also retaining key, young members of the roster.
Varlamov did have a full no-trade clause for the first two years on his contract, but that turns into a 16-team no-trade list for the upcoming season. While the partial no-trade clause could provide some barriers in a potential trade, it would still be possible to work out a deal.
While cap space would be the motive for trading Varlamov, it would also allow the Islanders to recoup some assets, likely bringing back one or more quality draft picks which the team could either keep to start building back a prospect pool or flip in a trade.
On top of this, if there was ever a time to trade Varlamov in order to get the best possible return, now would be the time to do it. Varlamov’s value is likely the highest it’s been in a very long time and it makes sense to cash in after he had such a great year. Realistically, it’s unlikely that Varlamov will sustain a save percentage around .929 in the coming years and we’ll almost certainly see those numbers drop a bit, factoring in his play over his career, his age, and some inconsistency from year to year on his part.
He posted a .914 save percentage in his first season with the Islanders in the 2019-20 season and while that's still a solid stat, it's a major difference from how strong of a season he had this year. There's a fairly decent chance that if he does stay, his plays drops back a bit and Sorokin continues taking on more of a role for the team anyways.
While the Islanders would surely like to keep Varlamov after such a successful season, trading him would be a way for the Islanders to clear cap space and get back some quality assets, without putting their goaltending situation or status as a contender in jeopardy.
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