Quick Hits: Nov. 26, 2018
1) The Flyers have a 10:30 a.m. practice in Voorhees on Monday. On Tuesday, they will host the Ottawa Senators in what will be the team's final game in November. Come Saturday, the Flyers will begin a December stretch that starts with six of the team's first seven games of the month being played on the road. The Flyers have only four home games in December, with 10 away games.
2) The Senators will be on the second half of back-to-back games when they come to Philly on Tuesday. On Monday, Ottawa visits Madison Square Garden to play the New York Rangers. The Senators, who scored three power play goals and held two leads against the visiting Flyers in an early season game Philly ultimately won, were doing OK this month until their last three games.
From Nov. 4 to 17, the Senators went 4-2-1 over a seven-game stretch, including an upset road regulation win in Tampa Bay (on the heels of gaining a point from an overtime home loss against the Lightning less than week earlier) and back-to-back home wins against Detroit (2-1) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (6-4).
This past week, however, was very rough for the Senators. Apart from losing three straight regulation decisions at home against the Florida Panthers and on the road against the Minnesota Wild and Dallas Stars, the Senators hemorrhaged a combined 19 opposing goals over those three games. The Sens also scored a combined 13 goals, and yet lost by multi-goal margins in each match.
3) As far as the Flyers are concerned, it is going to be tough for the team to stop its serial streakiness (4-7-0 in the first 11, 5-0-1 in the next six, 1-4-1 over the most recent six) unless there are some major improvements.
Over on the Flyers' official website, I looked at one of the symptomatic issues in the team's struggles this season:
giving up the first goal far too often. The Flyers have given up the game's first goal in 15 of 23 games. Not every game where Philly has wound up trailing 1-0 has been due to a poorly played first period, but far too many of them have.
Leaguewide, on average, even holding a 1-0 lead statistically gives a team better than a 70 percent chance of winning or at least gaining a point from the game. This season, all 31 teams, including Ottawa, have at least a .500 points percentage when scoring the first goal of a game (all but the Senators are north of a .500 points percentage from such games). The Flyers are 6-1-1 when scoring first and 4-10-1 when the opponent scores the first goal.
When asked if slow starts are a problem, Flyers head coach Dave Hakstol will sometimes point out games (the Vegas game that was 0-0 until late in the third period, the defensively sound first period in Boston of what was ultimately a 3-0 loss, the dominant but scoreless first period against Tampa, the 3-0 loss to the Devils where the Flyers trailed 1-0 at the first intermission but hit four posts) where the team played fine early but couldn't ways to score. In a small sampling, that has sometimes been true.
In the bigger picture, however, the Flyers have trailed first on merit often, and first periods have frequently been problematic. Overall, the team has been outscored in first periods by a 25-17 margin. Even those numbers are buoyed by the team's 5-0-1 stretch in which the Flyers enjoyed a 9-2 edge in first period goals. Apart from that short-lived oasis, first periods have too often been debacles rather than a matter of unfavorable puck luck or tight checking both ways. That's been the reality.
From the start of the 2015-16 season through Saturday's game in Toronto -- 44 of 82 games in 2015-16, 48 of 82 games in 2016-17, 47 of 82 games last season, and 15 of 23 games to date this season, for a total of 154 of 269 games or 57.2 percent of all regular season games played in that span -- the Flyers have given up the game's first goal. The fact that the team still managed 96-point (2015-16) and 98-point (2017-18) seasons does attest to overall resiliency. Nevertheless, if a team believes itself to be capable of being more than a bubble team the playoffs and then winning a series in the playoffs, this is not a very likely formula to produce that sort of outcome.
4) Again, scoring/trailing first is a symptom of the team's problems and not the cause. Some issues are fixable, others are going to tough to fix within the season and were concerns before the season started: namely, goaltending health and depth, penalty killing issues and the lack of a bonafide third line center. We'll get to those in a moment.
The unexpected issues this season, from my standpoint, have been:
A) The struggles of Ivan Provorov and Shayne Gostisbehere (whether together as a pairing or separated) to the point where one wonders if one or both are playing through some sort of physical issues.
B) The long power play drought that preceded a breakout afternoon against Tampa. The second unit was a longstanding concern that, even with some personnel upgrades, was probably going to need time to gel. But the first unit had, for many years, been one of the team's biggest strengths. It's hard to tell if the Tampa game was a positive turning point for the power play because the team only had one power play opportunity apiece in the Buffalo and Rangers games and there were no power plays for either team in the Toronto game.
C) Sean Couturier's rough start. This issue has been corrected.
D) The degree to which the Flyers' offensive game has been so feast or famine. The team has scored four or more goals in 10 games. But they've also been shut out four times already and held to a single goal in three other games. There was only a brief stretch where the Flyers had two lines (Couturier's and Nolan Patrick's) clicking at the same time, which unsurprisingly coincided with the 5-0-1 stretch.
5) As for the issues that were concerns heading into the season, while much of the fan frustration gets taken out on Hakstol, I am in general agreement with
Jay Greenberg's Nov. 6 blog on how the coaching cycle in general inevitably works. If Ron Hextall were to fire Hakstol and/or NHL assistant coaches, it still won't magically fix the gaping hole in net that is magnifying all of the other issues. Hakstol, like all coaches, is not beyond reproach. But let's be realistic about this fact: No matter who is behind the bench, it would be hard to be much more than the .500 range with the current goaltending picture, even if other issues were sorted out.
The team's only bonafide NHL goaltender of even split-time starting caliber is Brian Elliott. He's not a elite goalie but he's a savvy one, highly competitive and can hold down the fort when the team plays decently in front of him; in turn, erasing some mistakes when they happen. But Elliott is also a bit streaky in his own right, is 33 year-old (but sometimes seems older), is coming off a major injury last season and off-season surgery and is now hurt again with what appeared to be a groin issue. The risk of reinjury once he returns is significant.
Michal Neuvirth IS a bonafide NHL goalie when healthy, but he's never healthy and it is foolish to expect that to change. One veteran hockey commentator recently quipped that the need for the constant "when healthy" disclaimer on Neuvirth is "glossing over the real issue; kinda like saying 'She's a really sweet girl when she's sober." Neuvirth is in his fourth season as a Flyer and has actually spent more games on IR than playing in the net. Having Neuvirth in your goaltending plan means needing to carry a third NHL-caliber goalie, and how many teams have that luxury? He may be activated soon off IR but the odds of him ending up right back there -- and sooner rather than later -- are higher than those of him being on the active roster for the rest of the season.
Cal Pickard is capable of being a passable NHL backup for a team that has a starter who can reliably start 55 to 60 games. The Flyers don't have such a guy at present. From time to time, Pickard can deliver a solid NHL start or do a commendable job in relief. Ask him for more than that, and his limitations get exposed. As it is, Pickard's 30-save shutout of the Rangers on Black Friday is what is even buoying his bottom-line numbers (4-2-2 record, 4.01 GAA, .863 save percentage) to "below average" range in 11 appearances. I do think that he's a better goalie than his Steph Beauregard-like stats, but games like the one he had in Toronto (two saves on six shots) make it hard to feel much confidence.
Alex Lyon is very competitive and cerebral but he, too, has limitations at the NHL level. It turns out that he sustained a lower-body injury in warmups before the Buffalo game but tried to grit it out. That didn't work out very well. He really struggled in his abbreviated start, and was pulled after four goals on 12 shots in the first period. Even during a few of his wins last season, Lyon was doing a lot of guessing in net; he was just guessing right. At the AHL level, he's actually been more mechanically sound than he's looked in many of his 12 NHL games.
With Anthony Stolarz, who had only one start and two widely-spaced relief appearances in the AHL for the Phantoms this season and is coming off two meniscus surgeries on his right knee which knocked him out of the 2017 playoffs and almost the entire 2017-18 season, the player appears to finally be healthy.
However, "Stolie" has always been a somewhat polarizing goalie prospect because he can look great for stretches and really struggle for subsequent stretches. When his mechanics and angles are in synch and he's "quiet" in his net, the 6-foot-6 netminder can be very effective. Unfortunately, he's barely played hockey for the equivalent of a season and a half, and a clear message was sent this season that he was/is considered the number three guy in the Phantoms goaltending pecking order. Stolarz did a commendable job in his recent relief effort for starter Carter Hart in a game in Providence and did the same under thankless circumstances in Saturday's game in Toronto in relief of Pickard.
As for the 20-year-old Hart, he's having his own set of issues with the Phantoms; which was not unexpected in his first pro quarter-season and not a long-term concern. He hasn't been awful for Lehigh Valley but he has been inconsistent from game to game and is not ready for an NHL callup. That's especially true with the other issues the Flyers are having.
6) In terms of why Ron Hextall didn't go out this summer and sign a top-four caliber defenseman, a third line center, and/or proven penalty killing forward with some speed, I can see both sides of the issue. On the one hand, there is something to be said for not overpaying in term/ cap hit for a player such as Michael Grabner ($3.35 million for three years was a bit high for a serially streaky 31-year-old player who ended up as a healthy scratch in the playoffs last year after New Jersey traded a 2nd round pick and a blueline prospect to get him at the trade deadline). Additionally, there WERE free agents whom the Flyers courted for those roles but who chose to sign elsewhere.
On the flip side, leaving the 3C role and PK personnel unaddressed in the name of "not blocking young players over a lateral move" and in trying to be mindful of long-term salary cap needs meant that there was going to be a lot of finger-crossing that issues that were problematic before this season would get better on their own.
7) There are things with in-game personnel management with which I personally disagree. Much of these are related to young players whom I think have earned a little longer leash or should have been looked at a bit longer.
I did not love that, after posting point(s) in 6 of 7 games and being a main catalyst in the third-period comeback bid in the Florida game, that Oskar Lindblom was dropped to the fourth line in the third period in James van Riemsdyk's first game back (with the Flyers trailing in the game) and, a couple games later, dropped to the 4th line in favor of Dale Weise, who is playing well but really shouldn't be in the top-six mix.
On a theoretical level, I don't have a big issue in and of itself with Travis Sanheim's role still being somewhat limited on defense. On a practical level, though, the blueline as a whole is a trouble spot with the team's two big-minute guys off their games, Andrew MacDonald's early struggles (injury-related and otherwise) and ending a frequent healthy scratch. Neither Robert Hägg, whose game has expanded somewhat but still needs to clean up a few key areas, nor Radko Gudas (who is having a good season) are going to be more than role-players and Christian Folin is ideally a 7th defenseman. Sanheim isn't a finished product yet in his own right and I understand why he still gets somewhat sheltered but what are the other realistic internal options? I am pretty old school in some ways and supportive of players deployed in roles with corresponding minutes when there's an ideal mix but I also think there needs to some more middle ground when there isn't such an ideal mix. For one thing, at least for the time being, I wouldn't mind seeing Provorov taken off PP2 in favor of Sanheim while Provorov is sorting out his game with the puck.
Lastly, four-plus years post draft and with two-plus AHL seasons under his belt, it was hard to make any real assessment of Nicolas Aube-Kubel because he played less than six minutes in seven of his nine games (not nearly enough of a look to see if he could help the team right now or not). Since he has not gained enough trust to be looked at as part of a viable line combination in the NHL, I was in favor of him being returned to the Phantoms to resume the top-six role he now plays at that level.
In the bigger picture, though, I don't think these are the issues that are holding the Flyers back from having a better record than they do right now. To me, it starts in goal, the top and middle portion of the blueline, on special teams and in offensive inconsistency. The rest is a matter of personally wanting to see certain players get a bigger bite at the apple.
8) Flyers PK: The up-ice pressure has improved this season as has disrupting entries. However, unless the Flyers win the first faceoff, clear the puck and then prevent opponents from ever getting set up, they are in trouble unless their goalie happens to make all the saves on that particular kill. There are still too many open looks from dangerous areas being allowed and the netfront/slot area (and preventing passes through the box for chances on the other side) is too often a minefield. The sub-70 percent PK percentage speaks for itself: the bottom line is that opposing power plays, once set up, stand a way-too-high chance of scoring.
During the second half of the 2015-16 season, the Flyers made an adjustment to the PK; they switched to the now much-maligned "passive box" after they were about 78 percent in the first half of the season. It worked for awhile, with an 82% second half to bring the final regular season total to the 80 percent range (the only time in recent seasons the Flyers got to 80 percent on the PK for a season). However, Washington picked them apart in the playoffs and the Flyers temporarily got more aggressive later in the series.
This season, the most notable adjustments that have been made have been somewhat more aggressive play up high in the defensive zone (and the aforementioned up-ice press and blueline challenges) but the dangerous areas between and below the dots are still far too accessible too often once an opposing power play gets set up.
9) Happy belated birthday wishes go out to Bob "the Hound" Kelly, who celebrated his 68th birthday on Nov. 25.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
Join the Discussion:
»