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Head-to-Head Regular Season Stats for Caps vs Bruins + Prediction

May 15, 2021, 9:11 AM ET [8 Comments]
Brian Sickles
Washington Capitals Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Hello All,

As promised, here some complied stats from Caps vs Bruins this season through seven games head-to-head. I did not include game eight since the Bruins sat 90% of their starters.

The Stats:

Shots
WSH: 208 (average = 29.71 shots/game)
BOS: 215 (average = 30.71 shots/game)
*The Caps outshot the Bruins in 4 of 7 games head to head
Regular Season Advantage: Bruins


Shots (5v5)
WSH: 137 (average = 19.57 shots/game)
BOS: 170 (average = 24.28 shots/game)
*The Bruins outshot the Caps at 5v5 in 4 of 7 games head to head
Regular Season Advantage: Bruins



Shots by Period (First Period)
WSH: 73 (averaging 10.42 first period shots/game)
BOS: 71 (averaging 10.14 first period shots/game)
Regular Season Advantage: Caps

Shots by Period (Second Period)
WSH: 66 (averaging 9.42 second period shots/game)
BOS: 74 (averaging 10.57 second period shots/game)
Regular Season Advantage: Bruins

Shots by Period (Third Period)
WSH: 60 (averaging 8.57 third period shots/game)
BOS: 72 (averaging 10.28 third period shots/game)
Regular Season Advantage: Bruins

Scoring Chances (5v5):
WSH: 113 (average = 16.14 scoring chances/game
BOS: 128 (average = 18.28 scoring chances/game)
Regular Season Advantage: Bruins


High Danger Chances (5v5)
WSH: 45 (average = 6.42 high danger scoring chances/game 5v5)
BOS: 42 (average = 6.00 high danger scoring chances/game 5v5)
Regular Season Advantage: Capitals

Power Play
WSH: 9 for 29 (60%)
BOS: 3 for 23 (25%)
Regular Season Advantage: Capitals

xGF
WSH: 1.49 xGF average through seven games
BOS: 1.53 xGF average through seven games
Regular Season Advantage: Bruins

Goals by Period (First Period)
WSH: 7 (averaging 1 first period goals/game)
BOS: 5 (averaging .71 first period goals/game)
Regular Season Advantage: Capitals

Goals by Period (Second Period)
WSH: 10 (averaging 1.42 second period goals/game)
BOS: 9 (averaging 1.28 second period goals/game)
Regular Season Advantage: Capitals

Goals by Period (Third Period)
WSH: 4 (averaging .57 third period goals/game)
BOS: 10 (averaging 1.42 third period goals/game)
Regular Season Advantage: Bruins


My QUICK takeaways:

1. The Bruins owned the Caps in the third period. Goals, shots, scoring chances are all heavily in favor for the Bruins in the third period. The Caps are the oldest team in the league. I am curious how much of this will show (if at all) late in games

2. The Capitals third ranked power play was highly successful against the 2nd ranked Bruins PK. The Caps were 31% on the PP against the Bruins. The Caps will absolutely need this to continue in the playoffs.

3. The Capitals surprisingly had more high danger chances at 5v5 than the Bruins. Corsi For and expected goals for a both in favor of the Bruins. Most of the time (not always) there is a correlation to high danger chances. The Capitals are statistically one of the best teams in the league at 5v5. They rank 4th best in 5v5 offensive production in the entire league with 129 GF.


My Prediction for the Series:

The biggest X-factor for the Capitals is goaltending. I predict Vitek Vanecek puts on a 2012 Braden Holtby type performance in the playoffs and steals the series for the Capitals.

Caps in 6
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