All right, trade deadline fiends — here's a new wrinkle...
Not sure if you've heard or not, haha, but it's a little-known fact that sports betting is now legal in Canada. Perhaps if you watch enough hockey, you've seen an ad or two in this regard on television?
I happened to make a visit on Tuesday morning to B.C.'s legal sportsbook, PlayNow.com, which is owned and operated by the B.C. Lottery Corporation (19+ to play. Know your limit, play within it.)
And guess what? They've added trade deadline wagers to their betting options!
Click here if you're interested in checking it out.
They have an over/under on the total number of projected trades between now and deadline day — set at 35.5 as of Tuesday morning. But of way more interest to me — they have betting lines set for a whopping NINE Canucks players.
Odds do change based on what's happening in the market — and, presumably, on what rumours will be circulating over the next two weeks. I'm going to run through these March 8 numbers and offer some thoughts. Then, we can see how the lines move and what ends up happening on deadline day.
Here we go...
J.T. Miller
Will player get traded? Yes: 3.50 No: 1.25
Betting odds represent implied probabilities that an event will take place. Daily Faceoff offers
this easy calculator which allows you to translate odds into different formats, as well as seeing that implied probability.
In Miller's case, his odds are +250 in the American format that might be more familiar to you.
That's a 25.87% chance that he will be traded — perhaps a somewhat higher number that you might think when you first look at those numbers and see that 'No' is a heavy favourite.
Awhile back, I advocated for the Canucks keeping Miller if they can and trying to extend him, as a veteran player they can build around. I feel like his outstanding play as the team keeps pushing for a playoff spot has brought some more people on board with that idea. Plus, the organization could still deal him this summer if it becomes clear that he doesn't want to sign an extension in Vancouver.
Is 3.50 enough for you to put money on the idea that Miller will be dealt before March 21?
Brock Boeser
Will player get traded? Yes: 2.10 No: 1.66
Boeser's odds are equivalent to +110, or a 47.62% chance he'll be dealt by the deadline. Almost 50/50, but still leaning slightly toward the possibility that he'll stay.
In his case, the bugaboo is that qualifying offer of his. After Jim Rutherford has talked about wanting to free up salary-cap space so that he can start remaking his roster, will he and Patrik Allvin be able to find a way to re-up Boeser at a number that, perhaps, is more palatable than that $7.5 million qualifying offer?
Of course, that issue also makes Boeser less attractive to acquiring teams, especially playoff contenders who are already tight for salary-cap space themselves.
After a slow start, Boeser has 12 goals and 23 points in 29 games under Bruce Boudreau, a rate of 0.79 points per game that is right around his career average of 0.80.
According to
CapFriendly, his best match as a contract comparable is Alex DeBrincat of Chicago, who's 10 months younger and was drafted one year later, at 39th overall in 2016.
DeBrincat's at 32 goals and 49 points in 57 games this season, tracking to come up a little short of his career-best 41 goals and 76 points in the 2018-19 season but already with three 30-plus goal seasons at age 24. Boeser's best to date has been 29 goals in 62 games in his rookie year, before that terrible back injury.
Boeser and DeBrincat both signed their current three-year contracts during the 2019 offseason, but DeBrincat's was an extension that didn't take effect for a year. Boeser's AAV is $5.875 million, but his qualifying offer is $7.5 million this summer.
DeBrincat's AAV is $6.4 million. He's earning $5.1 million in real dollars this year, but that number jumps to $9 million next season.
So — that all pretty much aligns. I've also previously mentioned Timo Meier, who signed a four-year deal in 2019 and will become an RFA with a qualifying offer requirement of $10 million at the end of the 2022-23 season.
If a team is looking to acquire a proven goal-scorer in that age-25 range, general managers will know that Boeser's contract situation is not out of line. Of course, the pandemic has shifted NHL economics — in 2019, it was assumed that the salary cap would keep on rising.
Perhaps, with their history with the player, the Canucks have the edge in working out a palatable agreement with Boeser going forward? Or, maybe there's a team on the rise, with cap space, that would be interested in trading for his services?
Tyler Motte
Will player get traded? Yes: 1.62 No: 2.20
Our first player who's more likely to be traded than not, Motte's an impending UFA who carries a cap hit of $1.225 million.
His odds of being traded are -161, or 61.73%.
But Motte is also a key member of Bruce Boudreau's beloved fourth line — a speedster who still plays a feisty game despite having gone through a number of injuries, and whose 7 goals and 14 points in 42 games this year have him on track for career highs.
We saw how well-suited his game was to playoffs in the 2020 bubble, so I can see why a contender would be interested. And while I agree that Job 1 here should be to find the next unheralded Tyler Motte and slot him into that role — and could Will Lockwood be that guy? — I also wouldn't be sad if Motte ends up getting a contract extension at reasonable money.
Tanner Pearson
Will player get traded? Yes: 4.00 No: 1.20
Because Jim Rutherford dealt Tanner Pearson to Vancouver when he was in Pittsburgh, the 29-year-old was considered to be an early front-runner for a trade when Rutherford first joined the Canucks.
Now, the oddsmakers believe he's one of the safest players, with a +300 or 25% chance of being dealt at this deadline.
Pearson has eight goals and 19 points in 28 games since Boudreau's arrival, putting him a solid sixth in team scoring. And that's a big improvement from his early-season production, when he had just eight points in 25 games under Travis Green.
He gets roasted a lot for his contract, but right now, Pearson is contributing on the Canucks. And at a cap hit of just $3.25 million for two more seasons, he's providing good bang for the buck.
He also has a full no-trade clause this season, which becomes a seven-team no-trade list next year.
Bo Horvat
Will player get traded? Yes: 4.00 No: 1.20
No trade protection for Bo Horvat, but his trade odds are exactly the same as Pearson's at 25%.
If Rutherford and Allvin do want to make a major re-set to team culture, trading the captain would make a bold statement. And like Miller, Horvat is one year away from unrestricted free agency and making similar money, with a cap hit of $5.5 million.
Tyler Myers
Will player get traded? Yes: 4.00 No: 1.20
Interesting to see that Myers' trade odds are the same as Pearson's and Horvat's. With two more years remaining at a $6 million cap hit, his contract is one of the most noticeable when it comes to thinking about how to create additional cap space.
But once again, Boudreau has talked about how Myers has impressed him. His average ice time has gone up from 21:50 under Travis Green to 22:38 under Boudreau — although blue-line injuries can also be part of the reason for that.
And while plus-minus is certainly a limited statistic, these numbers are pretty dramatic. Under Green, Myers was a minus-two this season. That was kind of middle-of-the-pack on the team at the time. Under Boudreau, Myers is now a plus-16 in 32 games. That's tops on the team and it isn't even close — Conor Garland is second at plus-nine, and Luke Schenn is the next-best defenseman at plus-five.
Myers' playing style can be a bit high-risk, high-reward. But when he delivers those kinds of results, he's worth $6 million per.
Myers also has a 10-team no-trade list, which is in effect for the duration of his contract.
Conor Garland
Will player get traded? Yes: 3.00 No: 1.33
Garland's trade odds are +200, or 33.33%.
Most interestingly, they're significantly lower than Boeser's.
Garland has no trade protection, and has four years remaining at a cap hit of $4.95 million. As a new player who is not as entrenched in the marketplace, I feel like he'd be easier for the organization to move, from a P.R. standpoint. He's also one of the few players who has regressed a bit since Boudreau arrived. That solid plus-minus number notwithstanding, Garland had 18 points in 25 games and averaged 16:41 under Travis Green; under Boudreau, he has 13 points in 27 games and is playing 15:40.
I think a Garland deal is a legitimate possibility.
Jaroslav Halak
Will player get traded? Yes: 1.90 No: 1.76
The oddsmakers are pegging the chance of a Halak trade at -111, or 52.63%.
At this point, I'm sure the Canucks would welcome it, given Halak's shaky performances in his last few starts. Getting his salary off the books and clearing a roster spot to bring up Spencer Martin from Abbotsford would be ideal.
But the 36-year-old has a no-movement clause on his contract, and word so far is that he has been disinclined to waive that.
What circumstance might change Halak's mind? And what team would be interested in trading for a a vet who's currently on such shaky professional ground?
Perhaps he could be persuaded to join a club where he'll get lots of minutes, and could have a chance to bump up his save percentage? He's currently at .883, the lowest number of his career, but has also appeared in just 12 games. It would only take a few good starts to get up to the .905 number that he needs to collect on the final $250,000 bonus in his contract. But as someone who has made an estimated $42 million in his career, how much does a measly quarter of a million dollars actually matter to him?
I'll be pleasantly surprised if Allvin and Rutherford can find a way to get Halak's deal off the books by March 21.
Nils Hoglander
Will player get traded? Yes: 4.5 No: 1.16
Our 21-year-old owns the lowest trade odds of the players listed, at +350 or a 22.22 chance of being traded.
Ray Ferraro summed up this situation nicely when the question of Hoglander's future was put to him on last week's edition of the 'Ray and Dregs Podcast.' In a nutshell — the Canucks are now short on prospects, and Hoglander still needs to be treated as a prospect more than a full-time player. Even though he's in a bit of a sophomore slump, it makes little sense at this time for the organization to divest itself of one of its future building blocks.
Nuff said.
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