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Can the Vancouver Canucks afford to deal a defenseman at the deadline? |
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Last week, Vancouver Canucks general manager Jim Benning got some tongues wagging when he told TSN1040 that the team might be open to trading one of its defensemen.
Last season, the Canucks finished 24th in the NHL with 243 goals against, their worst defensive performance in a decade.
Benning's quest to improve his team's blue-line depth started even before the 2015-16 campaign was over. On February 24, the team acquired the rights to Philip Larsen, then in the KHL, from Edmonton in exchange for a fifth-round draft pick. Then, on March 9 they signed 2014 third-rounder Nikita Tryamkin, also in the KHL, to a two-year entry-level contract. Tryamkin made his NHL debut on March 16 and played 13 games, going 1-1-2.
Once the season ended, Benning continued to add in earnest. On April 13, he signed NCAA Frozen Four champion Troy Stecher out of the University of North Dakota. On May 25, he acquired Erik Gudbranson by trade from the Florida Panthers. And on Friday, June 24, he selected Memorial Cup champion Olli Juolevi with the fifth pick in the 2016 draft.
The moves have definitely helped to shore up Vancouver's defensive depth, but does the team now have an embarrassment of riches on the blue line? Hardly.
The Canucks have used nine blueliners in game situations so far this year, with farmhands Andrey Pedan and now Jordan Subban doing time in the press box as the spares during separate recalls. Luca Sbisa is the only member of Vancouver's blue-line corps to have appeared in all 48 games so far this season.
The Canucks were last in the league in goals against at the Christmas break and 28th with 3.09 goals allowed per game. Their strong play since that time has now moved them up 12 spots to 18th, and they're now 16th overall with 2.77 goals against per game—a pretty massive improvement over just 13 games.
Sitting one point out of a playoff spot, the Canucks are still short on bodies on the blue line. Erik Gudbranson's out long term after wrist surgery. Ben Hutton's just over two weeks into a three-to-six-week timeline for the microfracture in his hand. Philip Larsen's back skating with the team after taking that huge hit against New Jersey back in early December. And Alex Edler's now questionable: he appeared to hurt his wrist in the late stages of last Sunday's loss against Chicago.
If Edler can't go against Colorado on Wednesday and Larsen's not ready to be activated, that means Jordan Subban will make his NHL debut. I know we're all curious to see him play, but not even the hulking Tryamkin could distract from the fact that a defense that would include Subban, Stecher and Alex Biega might be one of the smallest ever to play an NHL game!
With more injuries a virtual certainty, if the Canucks are serious about making a push for the postseason, they won't have blue-line bodies to spare until the offseason at the very earliest.
Because so many teams are still in the playoff hunt, this year's trade deadline has the potential to be a bit of a seller's market. If there aren't many players available and there are lots of teams looking to make improvements for that push that might get them to the next level, bidding wars could ensue. It's also believed that the lack of obvious top prospects in this year's draft could make first-round draft choices more easily available than they were last season, when Chicago was the only team to deal its first-rounder (to Winnipeg, in the Andrew Ladd deal).
But the expansion draft definitely adds another wrinkle. Draft-exempt players could be more appealing trade targets, but they don't have the experience to be sold as obvious difference-makers for playoff contenders. How much will teams be willing to pay for draft-eligible players when they'll need to be protected from Las Vegas in June, potentially causing another key player to be exposed?
With less than five weeks until this year's February 28 trade deadline, here's my quick-and-dirty look at where the Canucks' top four defensemen stand. Players are listed in order of their cap hit.
I'll do Part II of this breakdown during the All-Star Break, musing on the trade possibilities for the less-established players.
Alex Edler - Age 30 - Cap Hit $5 million - under contract until 2018-19 - no-trade clause
Now that Kevin Bieksa and Dan Hamhuis have moved on, Edler's the elder statesman of the Vancouver blue line, and the only real connection back to the Presidents' Trophy years. A popular trade chip among the fanbase, his no-trade clause and closeness with the Sedins make it highly unlikely that he'll be moved. Jim Benning has stated that he will not ask any player to waive an NTC, and will only consider making a deal if the player comes to him.
Chance he'll be traded at the deadline: 5 percent
Chance he'll be traded in the offseason: 10 percent
Chris Tanev - Age 27 - Cap Hit $4.45 million - under contract until 2019-20 - limited no-trade clause
Chris Tanev is also a popular subject for trade rumours. Though he still flies largely under the radar around the NHL, his strong performance for Team Canada at the 2016 World Championship got him noticed a bit as one of the league's steadiest defensive defensemen. He's low-excitement, but he's effective—when he's healthy.
Tanev has never played a full season and 2016-17 has been his most injured year yet. He has already missed 24 games this year. Last season, he missed 13 games. In 2014-15, it was 12 games and in 2013-14, it was 18.
Tanev should be attractive enough as a trade target that he'd bring back a good return. But he does have a limited no-trade clause—and I haven't been able to find the details.
If Benning does pull the trigger on moving a defenseman, Tanev seems like a realistic possible candidate.
Chance he'll be traded at the deadline: 5 percent
Chance he'll be traded in the offseason: 20 percent
Luca Sbisa - Age 26 - Cap Hit $3.6 million - under contract until 2017-18
That $3.6 million cap hit doesn't seem so egregious anymore for today's version of Luca Sbisa, does it? Once the whipping boy of Canucks fans everywhere, Sbisa has gotten his giveaways largely under control and is turning in a steady season.
He's the most likely blue-line candidate to be exposed to Las Vegas in the expansion draft. Does this mean he should be traded now, when he could bring a return? Maybe, but he'd probably only draw a 'rental' return, since he'd most likely be exposed by the team that acquires him. And if the Canucks don't lose Sbisa in the expansion draft, it'll be a different player—most likely a forward like Markus Granlund or, if the Canucks want to hang onto their young players, Jannik Hansen.
Chance he'll be traded at the deadline: 15 percent
Chance he'll be traded in the offseason: 30 percent
Erik Gudbranson - Age 25 - Cap Hit $3.5 million - becomes RFA at the end of this season
One of the reasons why the Florida Panthers parted ways with Erik Gudbranson was because they knew the third-overall draft pick from 2010 was inching his way toward unrestricted free agency, and it'd take a big contract to keep him in the fold. Rather than pay up when they were offering a big deal to Aaron Ekblad and signing free agents Keith Yandle and Jason Demers, the Panthers chose to cut ties with the affable Gudbranson.
Now, the Canucks need to decide what to do with him. He's a restricted free agent at the end of this season, so they can qualify him for one year at his current $3.5 million, but he'd be a UFA at the end of that term. If the team wants to sign him to a longer-term deal, it'll take more money—even though Gudbranson remains an unproven commodity here in Vancouver.
Appearing in just 30 games before opting for wrist surgery, Gudbranson had the chips stacked against him from the get-go. Not only did he have to try to adjust to a new team and a new system, he was also quickly thrust into a higher-profile role when Chris Tanev and Alex Edler were both knocked out of the lineup. And he was playing through his wrist problem, which was on his dominant hand and plagued him from nearly the beginning of the season.
I suspect that issue had more of an impact than we may have realized on his overall play. If I was his agent, I'd want Canucks management to give him the benefit of the doubt that he could be better.
Jim Benning traded Nick Bonino to Pittsburgh just one season after acquiring him as part of the Ryan Kesler deal, so it's not out of the question that he could also change course on Gudbranson. But with his injury, Gudbranson's probably not in position to help a team during the playoffs, and his market value at the moment is low. My guess is that Benning will stick by him and re-sign him this summer to a deal that's at least three years long.
Chance he'll be traded at the deadline: 5 percent
Chance he'll be traded in the offseason: 20 percent
Stay tuned for my look at Philip Larsen, Ben Hutton, Troy Stecher, Nikita Tryamkin and Alex Biega, in a future blog.
Vancouver Canucks Blogger • 
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