We won't have to wait much longer to find out where the Vancouver Canucks will be picking when they host the 2019 NHL Draft on June 21.
Responding to general managers and scouts who were looking for more certainty about where their teams will be drafting as early as possible in their scouting process—especially before the World U18 Championship later this month—the league is holding its draft lottery nearly three weeks earlier this year, on the eve of the playoffs instead of at the end of the first round.
So let's get right to it. By virtue of their 23rd-place finish this season, the Canucks' odds of earning the first-overall selection in Toronto on Tuesday are five percent.
— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) April 9, 2019
As you can see from the chart above, the most likely outcome is that the Canucks will end up picking ninth or 10th—nearly an 80 percent chance it'll be one of the two. The chance that one of their ping-pong balls will be drawn to move them into the top three is 16 percent—and while it's tempting to believe that luck has to go their way one of these years, stats hounds will remind you that past events have no impact on future events.
If you flip a coin and it comes up heads nine times in a row, the chance it'll land on tails on the tenth flip is still 50/50. The same principle applies for lottery balls—although I've seen some conjecture that if the Oilers somehow win again, the league will have little choice but to make some kind of change that would stop the insanity.
With that, it's time to give the Tankathon lottery simulator a whirl.
One spin only for me....aaaand I got 11th for the Canucks, yikes! Only a 4.3 percent chance of that outcome, where all three top spots are taken by teams that move up.
My winners are the Ducks, who finished up one point behind Vancouver in the overall standings, followed by Montreal and Chicago.
The Canucks' intangible that might help them beat the odds, of course, is Quinn Hughes, whose sibling bond with this year's favourite for top spot might overcome any kind of rational probability. Finland's Kaapo Kakko has inched his way to the top of a few draft ranking lists, but brother Jack is still No. 1 with both Bob McKenzie and Craig Button at TSN.
Because the Hughes family home is in Michigan and Jack has been based in Plymouth for the last two years while playing for the U.S. National Team Development Program, the Red Wings also feel like they're deserving of the big prize.
Jack's a bit more effusive than his big brother, but still carefully diplomatic.
"I think the Wings would be sick, obviously. It's the NHL. Anywhere you go is gonna be really cool, but family lives around here. It'd be really cool."
After their long streak of playoff appearances came to an end, the Red Wings have been just as unlucky as the Canucks, falling from seven to nine in 2017, when they took B.C. boy Michael Rasmussen, then from three to six last year, when they selected Filip Zadina.
Here's a quiz for you: Who said this on Monday?
This franchise is getting a really good player. We’re going to add another really good player. We hope it’s a superstar. Hopefully we get lucky and we get a high pick, but we are getting a good player.
Nope, not Jim Benning. Those words came from Red Wings' GM Ken Holland. Click here for the article from Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press, which also includes a terrific Hughes family photo of a young Jack posing with Gordie Howe.
Tuesday is still 'dare to dream' day for all 15 lottery teams. Once we find out where the Canucks actually land, I'll start looking more closely at their options. I'm still not ruling out the possibility that they might trade up, if necessary, to make a splash at their hometown draft in June.
The draft lottery goes down in Toronto at 5 p.m. PT on Tuesday, with TV coverage on Sportsnet.
On Monday, the Canucks held their usual end-of-season media availability. I'm not sure you'll find anything from Jim and Travis here that will stop you in your tracks:
A condensed version of that segment, plus all the player interviews, can be found here, on the Canucks.com video page.
I think Jay Beagle got the two best laughs of the day—first, when he tried to answer a question about what ways the Canucks are different from his old team in Washington and also when he volunteered that 'me and Schenn' are available for Team Canada at the World Championship.
As expected, Quinn Hughes confirmed that he's suiting up for Team USA, while Jacob Markstrom will take the net for Sweden. In the midst of his confession that the heavy schedule of the NHL season was a physical grind for him, a tired-sounding Elias Pettersson said he'd take a bit more time to decide whether he'll go, while Chris Tanev said he had been asked but was very hesitant about whether the timeline for his recovery from his current injury would allow him to be ready in time to go to Slovakia.
Thatcher Demko and Nikolay Goldobin weren't included in the main groups, but came out to chat afterwards.
Goldy came out to talk to media. Realized there was a camera. Went back into fix his hair 🤦🏽♂️😂 #canucks
With so many forwards already in the mix for next season and Jim Benning saying he's still looking to acquire more skill on right wing, I think it's crunch time both for Goldy and for Jake Virtanen. This offseason will be huge for both those players. If they're still around, they need to come to camp in September playing more like Tyler Motte and less like Sam Gagner, if you know what I'm sayin'?
This offseason is also big for Brock Boeser, whose training regimen was limited by his back injury last summer.
The good news is that Boeser got better and better as his year went on. In a season where Pettersson stole all his thunder as a fan favourite, he finished up with one more point than last year in seven more games played and saw his fancy stats improve as he upped his defensive commitment, especially over the last month of the season.
His best offensive month was December, when he went 8-5-13 in 14 games off an insane 21.1 shooting percentage. He almost matched that in March with 5-7-12 in 14 games in March, when he was shooting a much more sustainable 12.4 percent.
Apparently, Brock has also taken all the chatter about his skating to heart.
Hankinson : "Brock talked to me last night about getting a fulltime 1 on 1 skating instructor, that's going to happen. He is always working on all parts of his game."
As part of a young, talented crop of restricted free agents around the league who are up for new deals this summer, Boeser's lower-profile season probably benefits the Canucks in terms of how much they'll have to pay him. That being said, I think Brock has shown that his character is just as impressive as his skill, and that he seems to have the makeup that'll make him a success in the NHL for many years to come.
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