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Looking at a Markstrom contract through the Lehner lens; the latest on OEL |
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As NHL teams gear up for the draft and free agency, there's a little bit of a lull in the action.
We've seen a few goalies re-up with their current teams - most notably, Robin Lehner signing the exact five-year, $25-million contract that he denied that he'd agreed to during the playoffs.
Even though there was no hockey game on Saturday night, Elliotte Friedman and Chris Johnston still delivered their usual Headlines segment for Sportsnet.
Marc-Andre Fleury has come out and said that he'd like to stay in Vegas, but Johnston says the Lehner signing probably does mark the end of the road for the player who has been the primary face of the franchise in its first three seasons - particularly given that Vegas has never named a captain.
It's too bad it has turned out this way, but I'm a big fan of Lehner's redemption story and was very impressed with how he handled himself in Edmonton, both on and off the ice. I was surprised that he didn't get signed to a long-term deal during the summer of 2019, after his strong performance with the Islanders. And at 29, he's six years younger than Fleury.
I've seen some talk that Lehner's deal would represent a floor for what Jacob Markstrom could receive, so let's compare their career numbers:
Markstrom is 18 months older, and was drafted a little higher - 31st overall in 2008, compared to 46th in 2009 for Lehner.
With his slow evolution to becoming a No. 1 goaltender, Markstrom has played 284 career NHL games, with 163 of those coming in the last three seasons. He has a career .911 save percentage, 2.81 goals-against average and six shutouts.
For all his ups and downs, Lehner has 317 career NHL games, peaking with 59 appearances with Buffalo in the 2016-17 season. His career save percentage is .918, with a 2.68 goals against and 19 career shutouts - six of which came during his 2018-19 season with the Islanders.
Looking a little deeper - in the two seasons since Lehner got help for his addiction and mental health issues, he has played 82 games and put up a record of 44-23-10 with a .925 save percentage and 2.47 GAA with the Islanders, Blackhawks and Golden Knights.
In the three years since Markstrom took the reins as Vancouver's starter, he has gone 74-65-20, with a .914 save percentage and 2.74 GAA.
So, both goalies have played the best hockey of their careers recently, but Lehner's career numbers *are* a bit better, no matter how you slice 'em. And from what I saw in Edmonton, he's a character guy who will be a leader in Vegas as the Golden Knights look to take that final step to the pinnacle of the sport.
We know how important Markstrom is as a leader in Vancouver. His lengthy tenure with the franchise - and even the time he spent with Travis Green in Utica - all adds up to a player who is 'foundational' to the Canucks, if I can use that word without it carrying too much of a negative connotation.
Markstrom's return could also be tied to the hot Oliver Ekman-Larsson trade rumour, which is still swirling.
OEL is also 29, so he and Markstrom have probably known each other for a good part of their lives as they came up through the Swedish hockey system together.
The earliest instance I can find of their paths crossing would have been when they both played for Sweden's U18 team in 2007-08. That was followed by World Juniors, World Championships, and the 2016 World Cup of Hockey.
In the video segment above, Friedman says that while the Coyotes have asked Ekman-Larsson to expand his list beyond Boston and Vancouver, he has declined so far.
Friedman also mentions that new Coyotes GM Bill Armstrong was an assistant in St. Louis when the Ryan O'Reilly trade went down two summers ago, and he's thinking he'd like a similar return for Ekman-Larsson.
I find that comparison interesting because I thought there had been an unreasonable amount of negative talk about O'Reilly before that trade - after he said he'd lost his joy for hockey following another losing season in Buffalo.
Boom - he gets dealt to a better team, takes on a huge leadership role, and wins a Stanley Cup and a Conn Smythe Trophy.
With OEL, I've seen lots of ink spilled over the past week about how his play has declined over the last couple of seasons. But I also think a lot of hockey people don't see the Coyotes play very often, given their western address and low market profile.
When Ekman-Larsson was being touted as one of the best young defensemen in the league earlier in his career, I thought that was a bit of an overstatement. Now, I think the talk of his decline is exaggerated. I don't think he has really changed that much.
I find it funny that Armstrong is looking to match a return that was widely considered to be a disaster for Buffalo in the O'Reilly deal.
Tage Thompson, a 2016 first-rounder, was supposed to be the blue-chip prospect. After playing 65 NHL games in his first season in Buffalo, he played just one game with the big club under Ralph Krueger last season. Patrik Bergland and Vladimir Sobotka were basically salary dumps.
The Sabres also got two draft picks. They packaged the second-rounder in 2021 with a fifth-rounder in 2022 to acquire defenseman Colin Miller from Vegas - then the Golden Knights flipped that pick and their own second-rounder from this year to grab Alec Martinez from L.A. at the 2020 deadline. The first-rounder, of course, turned out to be the 31st pick in 2019 after the Blues won the Cup; Buffalo selected defenseman Ryan Johnson.
That template doesn't look so bad for the Canucks. They'd probably have to give up another high draft pick or two, and a prospect with apparent upside. But in exchange, they'd be able to offload an unwanted contract or two as well as acquiring a quality puck-moving defenseman who should be able to help upgrade the blue line immediately - and serve as another carrot for Markstrom to re-sign in Vancouver.
Stay strong, Oliver. Don't expand your list!
Vancouver Canucks Blogger • 
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