When NHL Central Scouting released its
final draft ranking back on April 16, I thought the top end of this year's draft order looked pretty straightforward. There was unassailable No. 1 Rasmus Dahlin, then the group of forwards that includes Andrei Svechnikov, Filip Zadina and Brady Tkachuk, then a solid group of defensemen—one of whom would most likely land with the Canucks.
But as I've been monitoring the discussions here in the comment section and surfing around to check in on the latest from the experts, it seems like there's plenty of dissension—and lots of room for alternative scenarios to play out.
I like the methodology that TSN's Bob McKenzie uses to set his draft rankings. Ranking players in terms of 'talent' is so subjective, when you're looking at guys playing different positions, with different skillsets, at different stages of their development. And once you get into the 'mock draft' portion of the proceedings, you also have to consider teams' needs and whether they'd try to draft for position or simply target the best player available.
Bob's list is based on interviews with scouts around the league, and is focused on trying to predict where players will land on draft day. From the
2016 edition of the list, here's Bob's methodology:
Unlike many of the fine scouting services out there, which attempt to evaluate which prospects will turn out to be the best players in the NHL over the next five years, TSN's rankings are more a narrow prediction or forecast of when on draft day a prospect is most likely to be chosen.
TSN's top 80 is determined on the basis of a survey of 10 NHL scouts to get a consensus ranking. From our end, it's a highly objective exercise in numerically plotting the highly subjective views of the NHL scouts surveyed.
We won't see this year's edition of Bob's list for another week, mere days before the draft.
Despite his unparalleled network of hockey connections and his decade of experience, even the Bobfather has had a hard time getting his list to align with actual outcomes beyond the first couple of picks. But he's very good at identifying the top 10, even if they're not in order.
Here's a look at the Top 10 from the last five drafts, showing the team, then the actual pick, then McKenzie's projection. You can link to McKenzie's full list from each year off its header:
2017 -
Bob's list released June 19, 2017
1. New Jersey - Nico Hischier - Nico Hischier
2. Philadelphia - Nolan Patrick - Nolan Patrick
3. Dallas - Miro Heiskanen - Miro Heiskanen
4. Colorado - Cale Makar - Cale Makar
5. Vancouver - Elias Pettersson - Gabe Vilardi
6. Vegas - Cody Glass - Casey Mittelstadt
7. New York Rangers - Lias Andersson - Elias Pettersson (pick from Arizona)
8. Buffalo - Casey Mittelstadt - Cody Glass
9. Detroit - Michael Rasmussen - Michael Rasmussen
10. Florida - Owen Tippett - Owen Tippett
Top four correct; total 6/10 in correct spot; 9/10 correct in top 10 (missed Vilardi/Andersson)
2016 -
Bob's list released June 20, 2016
1. Toronto - Auston Matthews - Auston Matthews
2. Winnipeg - Patrik Laine - Patrik Laine
3. Columbus - Pierre-Luc Dubois - Jesse Puljujarvi
4. Edmonton - Jesse Puljujarvi - Matthew Tkachuk
5. Vancouver - Olli Juolevi - Pierre-Luc Dubois
6. Calgary - Matthew Tkachuk - Olli Juolevi
7. Arizona - Clayton Keller - Alexander Nylander
8. Buffalo - Alexander Nylander - Clayton Keller
9. Montreal - Mikhail Sergachev - Mikhail Sergachev
10. Colorado - Tyson Jost - Logan Brown
Top two correct; total 3/10 in correct spot; 9/10 correct in top 10 (missed Jost/Brown)
2015 -
Bob's list released June 5, 2015
1. Edmonton - Connor McDavid - Connor McDavid
2. Buffalo - Jack Eichel - Jack Eichel
3. Arizona - Dylan Strome - Noah Hanifin
4. Toronto - Mitch Marner - Mitch Marner
5. Carolina - Noah Hanifin - Dylan Strome
6. New Jersey - Pavel Zacha - Pavel Zacha
7. Philadelphia - Ivan Provorov - Lawson Crouse
8. Columbus - Zach Werenski - Ivan Provorov
9. San Jose - Timo Meier - Mathew Barzal
10. Colorado - Mikko Rantanen - Mikko Rantanen
Two two correct; total 4/10 in correct spot; 8/10 correct in top 10 (missed Werenski and Meier; had Crouse and Barzal instead)
* In 2015, the Canucks took Brock Boeser at 23; he was ranked 26th on McKenzie's list
2014 -
Bob's list released June 23, 2014
* This list does not appear to still be on the TSN website. I've linked to a site called My NHL Draft, which also includes projections from a number of other experts. Pretty wild to see Sam Reinhart and even Sam Bennett atop some of those lists!
1. Florida - Aaron Ekblad - Aaron Ekblad
2. Buffalo - Sam Reinhart - Sam Reinhart
3. Edmonton - Leon Draisaitl - Sam Bennett
4. Calgary - Sam Bennett - Leon Draisaitl
5. New York Islanders - Michael Dal Colle - Michael Dal Colle
6. Vancouver - Jake Virtanen - Nick Ritchie
7. Carolina - Haydn Fleury - Jake Virtanen
8. Toronto - William Nylander - Haydn Fleury
9. Winnipeg - Nikolaj Ehlers - William Nylander
10. Anaheim - Nick Ritchie - Nikolaj Ehlers (pick from Ottawa)
Top two correct; total 3/10 in correct spot; 10/10 correct in top 10
2013 -
Bob's list released June 25, 2013
* Also via My NHL Draft
1. Colorado - Nathan MacKinnon - Nathan MacKinnon
2. Florida - Aleksander Barkov - Seth Jones
3. Tampa Bay - Jonathan Drouin - Jonathan Drouin
4. Nashville - Seth Jones - Aleksander Barkov
5. Carolina - Elias Lindholm - Elias Lindholm
6. Calgary - Sean Monahan - Valeri Nichushkin
7. Edmonton - Darnell Nurse - Sean Monahan
8. Buffalo - Rasmus Ristolainen - Rasmus Ristolainen
9. Vancouver - Bo Horvat - Darnell Nurse (pick from New Jersey)
10. Dallas - Valeri Nichushkin - Max Domi
Only top pick correct; total 3/10 in correct spot; 9/10 correct in top 10 (missed Horvat/Domi)
It's interesting that the Canucks' picks haven't aligned with Bob's expectations in any of these five years although, again, his methodology is not about matching to the team. It's also good to be reminded that Jake Virtanen was a very attractive prospect when the Canucks selected him in 2014; it's not like they went way off the board.
One other note: trading high picks is very rare. In the last five years, only three picks have moved—the ninth pick the Canucks used to acquire Bo Horvat in 2013, the 10th pick in 2014 that Anaheim acquired from Ottawa as part of the Bobby Ryan trade and the seventh pick that the Rangers acquired from Arizona as part of the Derek Stepan/Antti Raanta trade last year. For now, I'm going to keep believing that the Canucks will keep their seventh pick this year.
Next week, Bob's list should help clarify which players we can legitimately expect to see land in this year's top 10. That, in turn, will give us a better idea of the group that Vancouver is targeting.
Click here to check out the wide range of names we're currently seeing in the top 10 of the various draft ranking lists that are already out there.
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