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U.S. Thanksgiving time... What teams are getting desperate? Tues Buzz

November 23, 2021, 9:12 AM ET [51 Comments]
I created something a few years ago to help determine what teams I should be talking to the most regarding possible trades. It is a factor that determines how desperate a team is and therefore how likely that team is to make a move or a change of some sort...

The "Desperation Number" takes into account the following Five factors (ands their sub categories)

1. Where is the team's window...

Closed: The team is in total rebuild. Not even thinking playoffs. Thinking draft position.

Opening: The team's goal is to make the playoffs but they won't stray from the long term plan to get there.

Open: The team already considers itself a playoff team and wants to MORE rounds.

Wide open: The Team is a Cup contender. Draft picks will be moved too add at the deadline. Coaches will be changed if the team is sliding...

Open, but Closing: The team feels they can still contend for a Cup, but the core is either aging out soon or on the downside of their careers.. Sometimes this is is the most desperate kind of team and will make the biggest changes...and earliest changes.

Closing: This is team deciding whether to commit to a rebuild or take one last shot. This kind of team is highly unpredictable..

#2. Expectations:
This main factor is based on four sub factors.
1. How much the team spent in the off-season..
2. How long it has been since this team met expectations...
3. How long the current GM and Coach have been with the team...
4. How big ofd a hockey marketplace this team plays in....

#3. Players potentially leaving after this season to Free Agency
This can be players leaving because they want to play elsewhere OR players the current team knows they won't be able to extend due to their own Cap issues on the horizon.

#4. How the current season is going
This is about results, but also how they are looking in general, plus team chemistry.

#5. Injuries.
Injuries can work a bunch of ways, but if they happen to a team with bigger hopes and/or a closing window they can mean HUGE moves. Especially when cap space is opened up by placing players on IR....

Those are the five big categories that go into my "desperation number." The higher the number. the more likely the team is to make a bold move...

In my next blog I will post the number for each team, but first...

What's the Buzz?
* Do you agree with these factors?
* Would you add or subtract to them?
* Who do YOU think are the most desperate teams currently in the NHL?
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