Welcome to the Hotstove! As always, I'm your host, Travis Yost.
A few days ago, we circled back on the
"Metropolitan division to take our first real crack at forecasting how the division shakes out. I kind of sense that the Metropolitan's going to be knife-fight in the middle between teams two through seven, with really Pittsburgh as the only certifiable lock to reach the post-season next year. Judging by the comments to that piece, I think most of you agree with the overarching point that those eight teams can finish an awful lot of different ways.
I think the polar opposite of the Metropolitan is the Central, where the playoff and non-playoff teams are separated by a pretty strong divide. That's not to say the fight for maybe positions three and four won't be interesting -- I just think it's going to be extremely difficult for any particular team to shove Chicago and St. Louis from their thrones.
It seems odd to position an argument that way because it was Colorado who won the division, but I'm really bearish on this team. There's a lot of super young talent that should take another step, but last year's hockey team felt a lot like a
house of cards, one that seemed to get
all of the bounces. I don't think there's a question as to whether Colorado's point totals should be sharply regressed from last year -- the real question is whether that regression can keep them as a playoff team. Can this club still pick up north of ninety points?
I think that's going to be contingent on two things -- whether or not Minnesota maintains, and how much Dallas is expected to rise. The Wild definitely looked better last year compared to years past, but I worry if they did enough to preserve their playoff spot this off-season. Dallas, on the other hand,
looks like the next big thing in the West. The Stars finished with 91-points last season, then proceeded to add Ales Hemsky and Jason Spezza. This team still has a question mark or two on the back-end, but their forward depth is close to as good as it gets now, and I don't think a hundred points is out of the question -- which, again, could prove problematic for the likes of Colorado and Minnesota.
As for the other two clubs, I'm a bit higher on Winnipeg than others, and a bit lower on Nashville than others. The Jets really do have a decent skating team, the problem is they are buried by woeful goaltending every other night. The Predators have a couple of smart reclamation projects in Ribeiro and Roy down the middle, and James Neal should provide some scoring punch in the top-six. Nashville's biggest problem though is the division they play in right now -- I think Predators fans will tell you that they won't be bad next year, but the reality of point allocation in NHL standings is that one or two teams
have to be bad after 82-games are wrapped up. And if not Nashville in this division, then who?
My early stab at the division finish -- I reserve the right to modify these guesses when we revisit in late-September:
1. Chicago
2. St. Louis
3. Dallas
4. Minnesota
5. Colorado
6. Winnipeg
7. Nashville
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