For the first time since 2017, we can say these words, “It’s Rangers playoff hockey.” Yes, the team made the play-in round in 2020, but that was in the bubble and is not viewed as truly playoff hockey, through the intensity did get ratcheted up a notch. Tonight, at MSG, the Blueshirts will get to experience the Garden at a level most have not seen.
Overall playoff schedule
Rangers video:
Hype video:
Matchup:
New York and Pittsburgh meet for the first time in the playoffs since 2016. For several seasons, even when the playoff bracket was not divisional, the two squads seemed to be meet almost annually. Many of the names have changed, though the Penguins still have Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang while the Blueshirts have Chris Kreider to impart the wisdom of facing their opponent to their teammates.
The Rangers have had a magical season, notching 52 wins, tied for second best in their franchise history. New York hit the ground running and never looked back. Coach Gerard Gallant brought maturity and a steady hand to the team and locker room while GM Chris Drury clearly put him imprint on the team with his moves before and during the season.
Lines:
Kreider-Zibanejad-Vatrano
Panarin-Strome-Copp
Lafrenière-Chytil-Kakko
Goodrow-Rooney-Reaves
Extras:
Healthy scratches: Hunt-Brodzinski-McKegg-Gauthier
Injured - Tyler Motte
Artemi Panarin and Andrew Copp, each who missed the last few games of the season with injuries, returned to practice Sunday and will be in the lineup tonight. Their return restored the top six to what we saw the final month of the season after the trade deadline. Mika Zibanejad gets to measure just how far his game has come against either Crosby and Malkin. Chris Kreider became the power forward all had hoped he would be, tallying 52 goals, while Frank Vatrano brings speed and a shoot first mentality to the top line.
Panarin-Ryan Strome-Copp established an immediate chemistry. Having that trio back together lengthens the lineup and enables Alexis Lafrenière and Kakko Kappo to slide down to the third line, where each are better suited on this team. Look for the second line to lead New York in this round.
What is noticeable above is two-fold. First, Gallant is going with the Kid Line as the third line. I do expect Barclay Goodrow, one of those off-season acquisitions, to move to the third line at times. But the three neophytes get to skate together. Filip Chytil, who played well the final well or so of the season, is a major key. If he can hold his own, especially when matched up against either Crosby or Malkin, New York has an even better chance to advance. Laf needs to be a physical presence and adore at even strength, as he has all season, while Kakko has to go to the dirty areas and use his improved strength.
Second, Ryan Reaves starts in Game 1. His ice time will likely be limited, but Reaves brings a presence to the ice and not a major shock he is in the lineup tonight. Dryden Hunt will get his chance to play.
Defense:
Miller-Trouba
Lindgren-Fox
Nemeth-Schneider
Extras: Braun and Hajek
The top-four have been set in stone all season. Miller has taken a major step forward, blending his skills as a former forward with improved awareness and play defensively. In addition, he has increased his physical presence rounding out his game. He and Crosby have started to build a healthy dislike and this could be Marc Staal-Crosby 2.0, potentially without the shots to the neck. Now settled into New York, Trouba has really found his footing. One key will be to limit the odd-man rushes against, which at times plagues that duo. But Trouba flashed offensive skill while showing some major snarl on the blueline.
We all know how good Fox is, but look for Pittsburgh to give him the treatment the Rangers used to give Letang. Dump the puck in the corner and take every chance to hit him, legally and illegally. Fox will need to stand up to the pounding. Lindgren loves mixing it up while also showing a knack as to when to step up in the play offensively. His play dipped in the middle of the season but has been on a small upswing down the the stretch.
The third pair is the one where changes could occur. Braden Schneider established himself as a must in the lineup immediately after his promotion. He plays wise beyond his years on both sides of the ice, but especially in his own zone. Patrik Nemeth, brought in to help ease Nils Lundkvist’s transition to the NHL, dealt with some personal issues and injuries during an uneven year. He has been mildly better the last month but still not at the level expected when brought in. Drury acquired Justin Braun for his playoff experience, as he has 100 postseason games under his belt. He is better suited to the right side, but Schneider is set there. If he does get in the lineup, look for him on the left of Schneider.
Goalies
Shesterkin
Georgiev
How much really needs to be said. Shesterkin took over like a rocket when the season started, and other than a mild blip in early-March, never looked back. He finished 36-13-4 with a 2.07 goals-against average and .935 save percentage, the latter mark third best in NHL history. Shesterkin should earn the first Vezina Trophy in his career when the Awards are distributed. His ability to play the puck gives the Blueshirts a chip they haven’t really had in the past, bringing a different look in net. Georgiev has been very up and down. He won’t see the net other than in a blowout on the negative side or unfortunately injury.
Penguins lines:
Pittsburgh’s top line is extremely dangerous. Crosby never seems to age averaging well over a point a game. Because he missed 13 games early in the season, Jake Guentzel, tied Crosby for the team lead in points with 84 and led Pitt with 40 goals. Guentzel has morphed into a major sniper, dangerous anywhere in the offensive zone. Bryan Rust rounds out the line, tallying 24 goals and 34 assists in 60 games.
Malkin missed half the season with injuries but still posted 42 points in 41 games. If Jason Zucker is activated, he will slide to the left of Malkin, rounding out that line. Rickard Rakell, rumored for months to be a Rangers target, who went to Pitt at the deadline when New York added Copp, gives Malkin a solid winger to the right.
As Ryan Wilson noted, Danton Heinen was third on the team in 5v5 goals at 15. He showed an ability to chip in offensively without needing the power play. Jeff Carter and Kasperi Kapanen together is certainly a choice. They have both struggled mightily to this point. Scoring some playoff goals will make a lot of people forget the regular season. Carter does have a playoff pedigree and how the third lines match up and produce will also play a role in who wins this series. Old friend Brian Boyle is on the fourth line with Evan Rodrigues, who helped keep the Penguins afloat early in the season when several stars were out.
On paper, New York has the edge up front. But we all know Crosby elevates his already elite game when the lights shine brightest, same with Malkin. Carter brings playoff pedigree and experience as well while to me, Rust is a major wild card, as sometimes he gets lost in the mix but is extremely dangerous.
Blueline
Dumoulin-Letang
Matheson-Ruhwedel
Pettersson-Marino
Some have called this playoff run for Pittsburgh the last licks tour. Kris Letang, Malkin and Rust are all UFAs after the season, giving it a vibe of one not kick at the Cup. Letang set a new career high in points this season and is exceedingly dangerous on the man-advantage. To me, he is a future Hall of Famer, despite the games missed by injury in his career. He is paired with Brian Dumoulin, who returns from his own injury.
This is the unit where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. None of the remaining d-men are spectacular, but are relatively steady. The pairings have been together for a little while and know how to play off and with one another. Mike Matheson had a career best year offensively with 11 goals and 20 assists while Chad Ruhwedel is the defensive “ballast” to that duo. John Marino and Marcus Pettersson round out the blue line as more of defensive than offensive unit.
Goalies
Casey DeSmith
Louis Domingue
Tristan Jarry
If there is an area where the Rangers have a material advantage - at least to start the series -it’s in net. Jarry rebounded from the debacle in last year’s playoffs against the Islanders to earn an All-Star nod. He went 34-18-6 while posting a respectable 2.42 goals-against average (GAA) and .919 save percentage through 58 appearances. Jarry suffered a broken foot nearly three weeks ago and has been ruled out for at least the first two games of this round.
Ably stepping into the breach while Jarry was out has been DeSmith. Pittsburgh didn’t miss a beat with the goalie change. DeSmith went 4-2-1 in his last seven starts with a 2.42 GAA and .933 save percentage along with a shutout. Overlooking how he has played and thinking New York can just cruise to a victory would be a major mistake. Backing up DeSmith with Jarry out is Domingue.
Advanced numbers:
Ryan Wilson posted these in his blog. What they show is that the teams are not substantively apart from one another. The major difference has been netminding and what has transpired post trade deadline.
Since the trade deadline the Rangers have closed the gap. Here are the numbers from March 22nd to now. New York has improved substantially in their own zone, limiting high-danger chances which has allowed the team to be more well rounded, resulting in wins not solely occurring due to Shesterkin stealing a game.
Keys to the series:
1)
Goaltending - duh, no kidding. As noted above, Pittsburgh is without Jarry to start the series while Igor is net for New York. As Ryan Wilson noted, among goalies with 1,000 minutes played at 5v5 Shesterkin is 3rd best in the league with an HDSV% of .867. Casey DeSmith is 44th at .806. Those numbers tell the story, though does not fully reflect how well DeSmiith played down the stretch.
2)
Special teams: New York’s power play was a major component in their run to second in the Metro this season. The Rangers finished third overall with a 24.5% success rate. Most of their conversion came with the top unit as the second grouping barely saw the ice, but likely will be a key in this series and the postseason. On the penalty kill, while mixing and matching new pairings both up front and on the blueline, the Rangers killed off short handed situations at an 82.3% clip, seventh in the league.
The Penguins power play, despite the names and talent, was only 19th in the league at 20.2%. With Crosby, Malkin, Rust, Rakell and Letang, they came be extremely dangerous. Pittsburgh was good in their own right on the kill. They finished third overall at 84.4% success rate, aided of course by the play of Jarry between the pipes.
What we have seen lately, though, is that opponents have been more aggressive on the penalty kill against New York. Squads have crowded the blue line, trying to limit time and space when the Rangers have gained the zone. To defeat this, the Blueshirts needed to be quicker with the puck and player movement, not getting stagnant or falling into typical patterns in the offensive zone, so that defenses need to adjust. More important will be gaining the zone, since we have seen New York struggle in coming through the neutral zone, turning over the puck and limiting their ability to maintain puck possession and set up.
On the PK, communication will be a major key. With Tyler Motte still out, that removes a PK option. But Kreider has been solid since assuming this role, paired with Mika. Rooney and Goodrow need to be effective, especially given the talent up front for Pittsburgh. This is where Trouba needs to excel and Miller’s growth needs to remain evident.
3)
Home ice - MSG can be a major advantage for the Rangers, especially when the team gets on a roll. The Garden is just waiting to explode, having not seen a playoff game in five years. Kreider spoke about drawing off the energy and noise the crowd makes. Getting ready home team faithful involved early and often could help propel the squad forward.
Prediction:
Pittsburgh is far from an easy out. Even without Jarry, the Penguins are a solid name with names we have seen and faced for years. The One Last Run theme will be a driver for them in the series. Blunting that sentiment will be a key. The Penguins have the post season experience edge by far. Acclimating to the speed and physical play of the post season quickly will be another key.
New York has the horses up front, on the blue line and in net to do some damage. Whether they are a year or so away remains to be seen. Nearly fully healthy, we hope, the Rangers are a fairly complete team. The series will not be a cake walk by any stretch of the imagination and the Penguins can most certainly win this round.
Shesterkin rises to the occasion while Copp shows his value again to the team, having a big series. Malkin out produces Crosby while DeSmoth plays better than some expect. The Kid Line has some moments, pro and con, while Laf has a big goal or two in the round.
Rangers in six.
New York Rangers Blogger • 
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