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2023 Series Overview and Preview - Round 1 - Rangers-Devils |
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The Rangers-Devils meet for the the seventh time in the postseason, but for first time since the 2012 Eastern Conference Finals and the initial foray without Martin Brodeur between the pipes. The match up is a contest between the second and third seeds in the Metro. New York finished with a 47-22-13 record while New Jersey went 52-22-8, slotting in one point shy of Carolina for first in the division. Unlike last year, the Blueshirts open their road to the Cup on the road, starting the series Tuesday at the Rock.
Rangers video:
Overall playoff and Rangers' specific schedules
Hype video:
New Jersey is in a similar position to where New York was last season. Coming out of a rebuild while somewhat surprisingly making the playoffs thanks to a magical campaign. Young kids who have matured slightly quicker than expected supplemented by veterans as well as free agent and trade deadline acquisitions. Like New Jersey this year, New York won 52 games last season, adding to the similarities between the two seasons. Both teams are helmed by veteran coaches, Gerard Gallant in his second season for the Rangers and Lindy Ruff in his third campaign behind the bench for the Devils.
Lines:
Kreider-Zibanejad-Kane
Panarin-Trocheck-Tarasenko
Lafrenière-Chytil-Kakko
Vesey-Goodrow-Motte
Extras:
Healthy scratches: Jonny Brodzinski and Jake Leschyshyn
The acquisitions of Kane, Tarasenko and Motte, each to varying degrees, improved and lengthened the Rangers' lineup. New York can now roll and has rolled four lines, each of which can stand on its own merit. Like last season, importing the additional weapons up front have improved the team's 5x5 play, making New York a lot tougher matchup.
Gallant experimented with lines a good portion of the season looking for the right chemistry. Vincent Trocheck and Artemi Panarin struggled to recreate the chemistry Panarin had with Ryan Strome. The duo struggled the first half of the season before finding their games together in the latter third of the campaign.
Panarin, who had an up and down 2022 postseason, enters these playoffs on a roll. He finished the year with 29 goals and 63 helpers, the third time in the four years he has been in New York he posted over 90 points. But more important and impressive is Panarin's willingness and desire to shoot the puck, as opposed to looking to pass. Trocheck, after a rough patch in January, turned it on, finishing with 22 goals and 42 assists, 182 hits and a team-best 56% faceoff percentage. That pair were aided by the addition of Tarasenko, who had eight goals and 13 assists in 31 games while displaying a little more physical play than we all expected.
Zibanejad is the Team MVP. Besides finishing with 39 goals and 52 assists, Zib plays on the penalty kill while also seeing top line defe dive match up duty. His partner in crime on the PK is Chris Kreider, in what has become a new role for him. Add in 37 goals - impressive in its own right - but even more given the belief of many that a major fall was coming from the 52 he notched the prior year. Kane has clearly lost a step or two, impacted by age and his hip, resulting in a decline in production. But as Gallant said and we all know, the regular season is not why he was brought in. If he excels in the postseason, then the deal becomes even more with it. If not, even with the reduced cost to acquire, not so much.
The Kid Line, so good at times in the playoffs last year, has been the team’s most consistent line again. Filip Chytil built on the success he had last spring, parlaying that into a four-year, $17.75 million contract extension while posting career-bests in goals (22), assists (23) and points (45). Like his linematers, Alexis Lafreniere took a step forward. Maybe not a quantum leap, but he posted career highs in assists (23) and points (39) while showing improved creativity and focus on the ice. Kaapo Kaako also had a strong season, using his physical play on the boards and in front of the net to create and convert chances. He also finished with career bests in goals (18), assists (22) and points (40).
The newly created fourth-line, which was pulled together after the deadline, is a real weapon. Jimmy Vesey, who returned to New York after three years in Buffalo, Vancouver and New Jersey, earned a spot in camp off his PTO and was one of seven players to play in all 82 games. Vesey, now inked to a two-year, $1.6 million extension, bounced between all four lines but is best suited for the bottom-six. Motte, who never should have been allowed to sign elsewhere, has fortified the final trio after arriving from Ottawa, posting 10 points in 24 games. Barclay Goodrow, one of the Swiss Army knifes, is likely overpaid, but he can play on any line or any situations and be effective. One negative is the decline in his fo% from 49.39% to 45.37%, which could impact his end-of-game deployment.
Defense:
Miller-Trouba
Lindgren-Fox
Mikkola-Schneider
Extras: Harpur and Hajek
The top-four have been set in stone all season, though the performance of all and availability of one has been somewhat in flux. K'Andre Miller, who took a major step forward last season, especially in the playoffs, has been highly uneven this year. Mistakes and defensive lapses for which he should know better to make at this point in his career occur way too frequently. For New York to get past this round and especially to go on a run, Miller needs to find his 2022 playoff form. Trouba is the heart and soul of this team. A leader on and off the ice, Jacob Trouba, as seen in first video above, wears his heart on his sleeve as the captain. His blow up in the Chicago game was one of the turning points of the season. One key will be to limit the odd-man rushes against, especially against Jack Hughes but pertains to facing NJ as a whole. which at times plague that duo.
We all know how good Fox is, but he may have taken his play to another overall level defensively. Fox struggled while Ryan Lindgren was sidelined for 17 of 18 contests, which also slightly impacted his offensive production. Not the swiftest skater, Fox relies on positioning and ability to get back to the right spot to thwart attacks. Lindgren, the Steven McDonald Extra Effort Award winner, is a cyborg who takes punishment and keeps returning. He is truly Dan Girardi 2.0 and when on the ice with Fox, they provide New York with a quasi-shutdown duo. This pairing will need to be at their best against the Devils.
The acquisition of Niko Mikkola in the Tarasenko deal gave New York a solid blueliner to pair with Braden Schneider. Mikkola played with Fox while Lindgren was sidelined but will skate with Schneider. So good last year, Schneider has had some difficulties to this year, which is expected for a young blueliner. But he showed down the stretch and in the playoffs just how good he is and could be. Mikkola and Schneider is viewed as the "weakest" pairing, so look for Ruff to try and play the match up game by putting his top lines offensively up against this duo. Harpur can also fill in when needed, though the D is weaker when he is utilized.
Goalies
Shesterkin
Halak
Extras: Domingue
Shesterkin, last year's Vezina Trophy winner, had an uneven season. He mixed pockets of his usual brilliance with a handful of stretches where he looked pedestrian. From the beginning of March, Shesterkin went 11-3-1 with a 1.98 goals-against average and .934 save percentage and finished the season with a career-best 37 victories. In addition, his underlying metrics are amongst the best in the league, as he saved 27.84 goals above expected, placing him fifth in the league. His ability to elevate his play, as we saw in last year's playoffs, will be a major key along with the Rangers' ability to limit traffic in front of the net. Halak, in his first season with New York, got off to a brutal start before rebounding, though he finished 0-2-1 to end the season. He won’t see the net other than in a blowout on the negative side or unfortunately injury.
NHL.com preview:
Devils lines:
Timo Meier practiced Monday and will play Tuesday. He slots in on the third line, likely moving Jesper Boqvist to extra skater status, though Yegor Sharangovich might be the odd-man out.
New Jersey is a deep team offensively, finishing the year with 289 goals, tied for fourth in the league with Seattle. Defensively, they surrendered 222 goals, eighth in the NHL, and just six more than allowed by New York. Their net goal differential of plus-65 was tied with Edmonton for third best in the league.
Nico Hischier, the first overall pick, continued his ascension into one of the league's best overall players at both ends of the ice. A possible future Selke candidate, Hischier also contributed offensively, posting 16 helpers in his last 15 contests of the season. Hischier finished the year with a career-high 80 points (31 goals, 49 assists) while playing 81 of 82 games this season. His presence takes pressure off of Jack Hughes. Tomas Tatar had a brutal first year in NJ after signing a two-year, $9 million deal in August 2021. He more than made up for those struggles, adding 20 goals and 28 assists while posting a career- and team-best plus-41 rating. Young talent is dotted all over the Devils' lineup. Included in that classification is Dawson Mercer. A first-round pick, 18th overall in 2020, Mercer exploded this season with 27 goals and 29 assists in 82 games with 10 of those points coming on the man-advantage. included here was an eight-game goal scoring streak (10 total) as part of a 12-game scoring streak for 20 points (11g-9a).
San Jose likely had Mercer as their top target for Meier, but there was no way GM Tom Fitzgerald was surrendering that asset.
Hughes, the first overall pick in 2019, stayed relatively healthy all season, which had not been the case previously. He would have been the first Devil to break the 50-goal plateau if he hadn't missed five games with an injury and only scored a one marker in his next 11 games. Hughes still finished with 46 goals and 53 helpers in 78 games as he became a true superstar and Face of the Franchise. The Devils dipped their toe into free agency this summer, adding Ondrej Palat on a five-year, $30 million contract last July. A groin injury that required surgery limited Palat to 49 games this season, during which he posted just eight goals and 15 assists. But he brings a substantive playoff pedigree, having won a pair of Cups in Tampa. Jesper Bratt, the third member of the line, may get overlooked in certain circles, but he is a sniper. Bratt posted a career-best 32 goals and matched last-season's total of 73 points, notching 22 of that total on the PP. An RFA with arb rights, Bratt, who was one of four Devils to score 30 or more goals, is set up for a big payday this offseason.
Erik Haula came to the Devils from the Bruins in July in exchange for Pavel Zacha. Haula had a solid season as the team's third center, posting 14 goals and 27 assists while seeing substantive time on the penalty kill. While Haula had a nice year, Zacha took a major step forward for Boston. Meier, the big-named trade deadline target for most of the league, landed in NJ on a solid deal for the Devils. He had nine goals and 14 points in 21 games with New Jersey after his trade from San Jose, where he had 31 tallies and 21 assists in 57 games. Meier clearly has not posted similar numbers on the East Coast as he did out West, but as a true sniper and scorer, he is dangerous anywhere and in any situation on the ice. Yegor Sharangovich notched 30 and then 46 points his first two in NJ, but the addition of the talent around him reduced his role and output. His ice time dropped nearly two minutes a game, half of which was remove from the PP, resulting in a 33% drop in output.
New Jersey's fourth line can chip in offensively, especially Miles Wood, but they are more known for their physical play and willingness to play a touch, hard on the puck game. Wood and Michael McLeod were healthy nearly all season while injuries limited Nathan Bastian to 43 games. Boqvist and Curtis Lazar are additional options for the fourth line, though if healthy, look for Wood-McLeod-Bastian to remain as a unit.
New Jersey has a major edge in 5x5 play, especially over the last third of the regular season. The Devils also have an advantage in speed up front, which they will look to exploit at every turn to create off-man rushes. New York is not a slouch skating wise, though not in the Devils' class. But they will look at times for the home run pass, especially the deep home run try from the D zone to the far offensive boards to the side of the net for Chris Kreider to use his speed. The Rangers have to go north-south more than east-west as NJ will clog the neutral zone and eliminate the side-to-side passes as much as possible.
Blueline
Siegenthaler-Hamilton
Bahl-Severson
Graves-Marino
Hughes-Smith
Injuries limited Dougie Hamilton to 62 games in his first season as a Devil last year. He certainly lived up to the seven-year, $63 million contract he signed with the Devils in July of 2021, setting career highs across the board with 22 goals, 52 assists and 74 points. Hamilton's 22 goals tied the Devils franchise record for a defenseman while his overall play was fifth in thge league for net defenseman rating. Hamilton was paired a good portion of the season with steady Jonas Siegenthaler but the rise of the play of Kevin Bahl, acquired in 2019 as part of the Taylor Hall deal with the Coyotes, has resulted in Bahl playing more with Hamilton down the stretch.
If Bahl doesn't skate with Hamilton, he will be paired with Damon Severson. After notching 46 points a year ago while picking up the slack for the injured Hamilton, Severson saw his output slide this year, despite a solid overall campaign. A UFA after the season, Severson is a strong candidate to be elsewhere in 2023-23 impacted by the depth on the Devils' blue line.
Ryan Graves, a former Ranger, dealt to Colorado for Chris Bigras, and John Marino, who came over from Pitt for Ty Smith, are a solid third pair. That dup may have been the team's most consistent pairing and more of a second than third unit. Luke Hughes, who scored the OT GWG in the team's final game of the season and second after turning pro from the University of Michigan, will dress at some point in the series. He could replace Siegenthaler opposite Severson and move up if need be. If Hughes does play, look for New York to try and target him defensively and physically
Goalies
Vitek Vanecek
Mackenzie Blackwood
Akira Schmid
If there is an area where the Rangers have a perceived material advantage - at least to start the series and in theory -it’s in net. Vanecek, dealt from Washington to New Jersey last offseason, made the Devils look smart for the acquisition and three-year, $10.2 million deal contract he signed. He finished the regular season with a 33-11-4 record, 2.45 GAA and .911 save percentage through 52 outings, career-best numbers across the board. But he did struggle with high-danger shots and finished middle of the pack with 13.28 goals saves above expected.
Blackwood, once believed to be the team's goalie of the future, was limited once again by injuries and ceded the net to Vanecek. He may open the playoffs as the third goalie, surpassed by Schmid, who posted a 9-5-2 mark and .919 save percentage in his first full season in the NHL. Vanecek, though, is the clear #1 goalie.
While the regular season goals-against average and save percentage numbers for Vanecek were close to those of Shesterkin, the playoff experience, continued ability to make a spectacular, game-saving save and playoff pedigree give Igor and the Rangers the edge between the pipes. On paper, that reads great, but means nothing unless that proves to be accurate in practice. New York has to create pressure on Vanecek, forcing him to repeatedly come up big in what could be a high-scoring series.
Special teams:
Rangers Power Play (24.1%, 7th) vs. Devils Penalty Kill (82.6, 4th)
Rangers PP units:
Fox, Panarin, Kreider, Kane, Zibanejad
Trouba, Kakko, Lafreniere, Chytil, Tarasenko
Devils PK units:
McLeod, Mercer, Graves, Marino
Hischier, Haula, Siegenthaler, Severson
New York's PP has been up-and-down, The acquisitions of Tarasenko and Kane changed the power play combinations and location of some of the players. The Rangers' seem to have finally settled on units and placements, but face a Devils' squad that has a solid penalty kill, especially in limiting shots overall. On the flip side, New York generates a healthy shot volume and has the ability to regain the puck after a missed shot or save to create additional chances. Look for Zib with the one-timer from the left dot, but with Panarin rolling, the duo could flip-flop sides.
Devils Power Play (21.9%, 13th) vs. Rangers Penalty Kill (81.2, 13th)
Devils PP units:
Hamilton, Hughes, Bratt, Meier, Hischier
Severson, Mercer, Wood, Haula, Tatar
Rangers PK units:
Zibanejad, Kreider, Fox, Lindgren
Vesey, Goodrow, Miller, Trouba
New Jersey has talent up front and benefits from Hamilton bombing from the point but should have better overall numbers. The same argument could be made for New York shorthanded, especially with Igor between the pipes. Whoever gets the edge here very likely will end up winning the series.
Advanced numbers:
The Athletic posted the chart above in the series preview column, see below. New Jersey has the edge on paper offensively. On the flip side, New York has the metrics edge on D and between the pipes. The edge on offense worries me 5x5, but the additions of Tarasenko and possibly Kane could help neutralize that. To maintain the advantage on the other side of the ice, New York will have to limit New Jerseys 's ability to traverse the neutral ice with no impediments, limiting space and time.
Keys to/storylines of the series:
1) Goaltending - Vanecek had a solid campaign while Shesterkin had a more pedestrian one compared to last season. But a look behind the numbers, as seen above, shows that Vanecek's performance was largely due to playing in the Devils' system and with those in front of him. For NY to take advantage of that, they will need to be able to penetrate the Devils' D more so than they did in the regular season.
2) Hughes-Kakko - Not a key but of course, a storyline, or at least one that will be discussed to fill media time. Hughes has become a superstar. By pure output, he has a vast edge on Kakko. What that ignores is how each is deployed and utilized by their teams as well as what they are asked to provide. If the draft occurred 100 times, Hughes would be taken first 100 times. But for purposes of this series for New York, that matters little, if at all
3) Special teams: As seen above, almost dead even. In addition, the Rangers have eight goals in 230 times shorthanded while the Devils have scored nine times in 233 shorthanded chances. For New York to win, they need to create volume opportunities, forcing the Devils to maintain their structure and limit chances. On the flip side. New Jersey will use Hamilton from the point to create rebounds and Meier as a screen in front to create traffic. Whoever ends up with the edge here, as also stated above, will win the series.
What we have seen in the past is that opponents can get aggressive on the penalty kill against New York. Squads crowd the blue line, trying to limit time and space when the Rangers have gained the zone. To defeat this, the Blueshirts needed to be quicker with the puck and player movement, not getting stagnant or falling into typical patterns in the offensive zone, so that defenses need to adjust. More important will be gaining the zone, since we have seen New York struggle in coming through the neutral zone, turning over the puck and limiting their ability to maintain puck possession and set up.
On the PK, communication will be a major key. The penalty kill has had periods of dominance mix with others where they have struggled. Handoffs, recovery and of course stellar play from Igor all will be keys.
4) Home ice - A story line not a key. That's because the proximity of the two teams - separated by 14 miles, a tunnel and the turnpike - means that fans of both squads will be heavily evident in each arena. MSG can be a major advantage for the Rangers, especially when the team gets on a roll. In addition, the Garden got a taste of a long run last year and hope for the same and further this year. The Rock has been without the playoffs for a few years and can rock when the Devils are rolling. It should be a fun back and forth atmosphere in each arena.
5) Kane - He only wanted to come to New York and GM Chris Drury was able to find a way - with almost no cap space - to make that happen. Kane's performance was poor at best this year with his D better than his O after arriving on Broadway. In addition, his best playoff performances are a bit behind him, but this is the time where stars are or become stars. What better way to burnish your reputation than channel your inner MSL circa 2014 to help propel the Rangers forward.
Prediction:
On paper, New Jersey has a slight advantage. The Devils are the fresh faced kids, save for Palat, looking to crash the Eastern Conference party as the Rangers did a year ago. New Jersey accelerated their rebuild this season, resulting in the addition of Meier at the deadline.
New York had somewhat of a playoff hangover, getting off to a slow start and raising some questions as to whether Gallant's job was on the line. Trouba's outburst against Chicago on December 3 followed by a comeback win over St. Louis on December 5 helped steer the ship in the right direction.
Both teams can score. Both have offensive blueliners that drive the attack. Each have superstars or ones in the making. New York has the bigger names while New Jersey is a team that the sum may be even greater than the total of their parts. The Rangers are built for the now while the Devils are growing for the future, though that future may also be now. The series will not be a cake walk by any stretch of the imagination and the Devils may enter as the favorite.
Shesterkin rises to the occasion while Kane has his Rangers' moment in the sun. Hughes proves he is an elite talent while Meier gives the NJ fans something to remember for this season and will be a difference maker in the series. In the end, New York does just enough getting a double-overtime winner - yes, a little deja vu all over again - from Kreider to barely make it to the next round.
Rangers in six.
New York Rangers Blogger • 
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