The Rangers and Panthers meet in the playoffs for the first time since 1997 when New York defeated Florida in five games. New York advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals for the second time in three years, first time since 2022, by sweeping Washington and ousting Carolina in six games. Florida returned to the ECF for the second straight year by beating Tampa in five games and Boston in six contests. Game 1 is Wednesday at 7pm.
Schedule (which is Rangers-Panthers)
Just landed back home and the NHL has announced the FULL schedule for the Eastern Conference Final, beginning with Game 1 on Wednesday night at MSG.
Extras:
Healthy scratch: Matt Rempe, Jonny Brodzinski, Blake Wheeler, Zac Jones, Chad Ruhwedel
The above is how the team practiced the last few days. Filip Chytil, out from November, returned to action to play in Game 3 against Carolina, then was sidelined with illness and soreness the final two contests. Matt Rempe dressed against the Capitals and three games against Carolina and both are options for this round. The same with Blake Wheeler who worked his way back from a brutal leg injury to come off LTIR and be under consideration for this round as well.
Zibanejad struggled 5x5 most of the season, racking up 31 of his 74 points on the man-advantage. He still is used in all situations and doesn't receive enough credit for his defensive work. Kreider has become an all-situations player as well. He is paired with Zib shorthanded while still being a master at net front presence and deflections, especially on the PP.. The 75 points - 39 goals, 36 assists - are two off his career-high for 2021-22. He is less of a physical presence than he once was, which has drawn the ire of some Rangers' fans. Roslovic was brought in at the deadline to try and fill the revolving door that existed all season at right wing. He got off to a good start, but was benched April 7 and went four straight games without registering a point. This line was at their best the final two games of the regular season, lending home they have figured it out. If a change in personnel is made, it will be here.
In the first round, Zib had a goal and six assists, Kreider had a pair of goals and an assist while Roslovic had two markers and two apples in the win. Zib took his game in the first round closer to the level we expect and will need against Carolina. Kreider had his moments, especially on the PP and PK, as did Roslovic. But as Vince Mercogliano noted, the Kreider-Zibanejad-Roslovic line finished the Caps' series with a 45.25% xGF, worst among New York's four lines, according to Natural Stat Trick. Despite those numbers, I never felt that line was hemmed in or outplayed, but against the Teuvo Teravainen-Jordan Staal-Seth Jarvis line, this trio will have their work cut out for them.
Against Carolina, this trio, at least 5x5, had their hands full. But when they needed a big goal, Kreider delivered, scoring a natural hat trick in Game 6 to help New York advance. Kreider finished the round with five goals and a pair of helpers. Mika Zibanejad, so matched his round one production with seven more points, will be tasked to help shut down the Aleksander Barkov line, which has been dominant in the postseason. Barkov, who won the Selke this year and had a key block to preserve the Cats Game 6 win over Boston, is one of the engines that make Florida go offensively and defensively but he is not alone. Jack Roslovic upped his overall game last round, despite only scoring three points, and his speed could be a difference maker.
Panarin, the Bread Man, delivered all year. Rebounding from last year's playoff debacle - two points in seven games against NJ - Panarin got off to a strong start and never faltered, finishing with career-bests in goals, 49, assists, 71, and points, 120 and should finish in the top-five of the Hart Trophy voting. All the above is wonderful, but we know that if he gets off to a slow start or struggles, the mantra will be on his lack of playoff performance. Trocheck is New York's unsung hero. Much of the talk late the prior season was how he and Panarin were not compatible. Chytil opened the year centering Panarin on the second line with Trocheck filling the role when Chytil was hurt and thriving. His 77 points (25 points) were a new career-high while he also saw copious action at even-strength, on the power play and shorthanded. Lafreniere, tagged by many as a bust, had his breakout campaign. Not just a product of playing with Panarin and despite minimal PP TOI, Laffy potted a career-high 28 goals with 29 assists and was a threat almost every shift.
Against Washington, Panarin "only" had a pair of goals - though both were game winners - and an assist. But if you watched the series, he had that jump we saw all season, which was lacking last year. Vincent Trocheck might have been the team's best forward, notching three goals and as many assists while winning 71.2% of his draws. a little revenge series for Trocheck, who played for Carolina in the 2022 playoffs. Alexis Lafreniere didn't light the lamp, but had four assists and upped his physical level of play. His performance will be a huge key against Carolina, as his growth from then to now is a major change between the two matchups. It's possible Carolina matches strength for strength, using the Jake Guentzel-Sebastian Aho-Andrei Svechnikov against the Panarin line.
As Vince Mercogliano noted, this unit sometimes sells out for offense. They’ve led all NHL lines with seven goals scored while posting a 56% xGF in the playoffs. But they’ve also allowed a league-high six goals against.
Trocheck might have been New York’s best overall forward last round against the Canes while posting three goals and five assists in the round. He continues the match up against his former clubs in this league round. Panarin added a pair of goals and six helpers versus Florida’s he continued to put last year’s debacles behind him. Lafreniere will have all he can handle matched up opposite Matthew Tkachuk, who will likely try and be physical with the winger. Laf, who notched four goals and added a pair of assists versus Carolina, who also tried to be physical with him, is no shrinking violet, so look for him to respond in kind. Barkov could double shift to match up against Trocheck, especially late in games.
The bottom-six has been a work-in-progress most of the season. Wennberg came at the deadline from Seattle and has steadied that 3C spot with Chytil out. Chytil, sidelined since Nov.. 2 with what's believed to be his fourth concussion, was expected to miss the remainder of the season. He surprisingly started practicing in a full-contact jersey last week and is an option for the playoffs. Coach Peter Laviolette could deploy Chytil as the 1RW or slot him back in as the 3C with Wennberg moving to wing on that line or possibly moving up to the first line. A move like that would impact Roslovic and possibly Will Cuylle, but it provides the Rangers options, as we presume that Chytil is 100% or he would not have been cleared for any contact given the injury. Initially, though, despite the impact it would have on MSG to Chytil suit up, my gut says he starts Game 1 in the press box.
Cuylle finished the regular season with 13 goals, eight assists and 247 hits in 81 appearances but slowed down offensively after mid-February, mustering just three goals without an assist over the final 27 games of the regular season. Despite the drop in production, he should be in the lineup initially, as his physical presence will be beneficial against Washington's playing style. Kaapo Kakko looked to be on the verge of a breakout after scoring 18 goals and 22 assists last season. Now, the questions that were asked on Laf are pointed to him. Kakko is strong along the walls and solid enough defensively, making him a good third-line winger, but the offensive production tailed off mightily with 13 goals and six helpers in 61 games.
Versus the Capitals, the Cuylle-Wennberg-Kakko trio didn't have a big offensive series. Kakko opened the scoring in Game 4 and that was it for the line. Despite the lack of production, the unit had a solid series as they were strong defensively while - as noted in the Athletic preview - also possessing the puck substantially in their shifts, posting a 74 percent expected goals rate against Washington. If Carolina limits the top-six, this is where we could see Chytil line up, shifting Cuylle down.
Last series vs. Carolina, the blender came out slightly. The first two games saw the same trio that was utilized versus Washington. Chytil was inserted into the line in Game 3, moving Cuylle to the fourth line, and nearly scored. He sat the next three games with Cuylle shifting back up to the third line.
As Mercogliano added and we all have discussed, finishing has been an issue for this trio. Kakko, Wennberg and Cuylle have generated excellent underlying numbers, with their 69.8% xGF ranking first among lines that remain in the playoffs and have logged at least 60 minutes together. But they’ve only registered two goals in 66.7 minutes. That may be one reason why Chytil skates on this line as he is a shoot first player whose speed could generate chances.
Florida’s third line is solid with an edge, as seen by Sam Bennett’s stick jab to Brad Marchand’s chin. Bennett is certainly used to playing on or over the edge, which is a concern against Chytil due to his concussion history. He and Anton Lundell could trade spots and don’t sleep on Lundell who has picked up his play these playoffs. Evan Rodrigues is playoff tested while Eetu Luostarinen is fine but not exciting.
Jimmy Vesey has been a jack-of-all-trades, moving up and down the lineup. He has had a turn on the first line but is better suited for the bottom-six, finishing with 13 goals and as many assists. Barclay Goodrow, largely due to his $3.6 million salary, but also due to his lack of production is persona non grata with most Rangers' fans. Despite that, he is a Lavy favorite and will be in the lineup centering the fourth line despite subpar advanced metrics. Matt Rempe, who has become the fan's favorite, is expected to line up as the fourth line right wing Sunday. His presence is meant as a deterrent to Tom Wilson but Rempe has to stay out of the box and not get caught up in any side shows. He is the most likely to be replaced by either Chytil or Jonny Brodzinski if Laviolette wants to add some speed to the bottom-six.
This unit - at least two-thirds of it - had a tremendous series against the Caps. Goodrow found his game late in the season and it carried forward. His presence will be key against the Canes. Vesey was good, not great, and is locked into his role on the fourth line. Rempe gets the home crowd going, but as seen, coach Peter Laviolette staples Rempe to the bench in a close game, relying on 11 forwards. Rempe likely will start Game 1, but at some point in the series, Chytil or Jonny Brodzinski will replace him to bring additional speed, a possible scoring option and more reliable forward.
Against Carolina, we saw Rempe, Cuylle and Brodzinski all skate opposite Goodrow and Vesey. Cuylle is better suited for the third line but will line up here when Chytil is in the lineup. Goodrow has been a major force these playoffs while Vesey continues to be his normal solid self. Cuylle’s defense is underrated. Rempe may play at home when New York has the last change to shelter him slightly. Florida’s fourth line mirrors the team’s agitative self. Nick Cousins is persona non grata for 31 teams while Ryan Lomberg and Kevin Stenlund bring energy to the fourth line.
Lindgren-Fox
Miller-Trouba
Gustafsson-Schneider
Extras: Jones-Ruhwedel
For much of the season, the top-four was set. When Jacob Trouba missed 11 games in March, Laviolette and coach Phil Housley paired K'Andre Miller and Braden Schneider. While the advanced metrics were not substantially different from Miller and Trouba, that new pairing looked and felt different. Lavy put Trouba and Miller back together when Trouba returned but changed up the pairings to Miller and Schneider the last two games of the season with strong results. It's possible the Rangers revert to what had been tried and true, though the signs point to this duo remaining together. Miller has looked better offensively since the change and he will need to be physical down low, the same with Schneider, against the Caps, who generate much of their attack in front of the net.
As Larry Brooks noted, the Adam Fox-Ryan Lindgren pair first formed nine years ago with Team USA’s U17 squad and reunited on the Rangers the first month of 2019-20 had a 66.67 percent goal-share after the All-Star break, on for 26 goals for and 13 against. The tandem will see its fair share of Alex Ovechkin this round as they have with all top lines in the past. Fox missed 10 games this year with an injury and struggled after his return, but as noted above, he has been right as rain lately, finishing with 73 points in 72 games. Lindgren is Robo Cop and the Bionic Man, shrugging off injuries and shots. The heart of this team, Lindgren is the modern day Dan Girardi.
Trouba is vilified for his $8 million salary and C on his chest by many. He is the true physical presence on the blue line, relying on positioning to make up for the lack of foot speed. Trouba blocks shots and dishes out hits and will need to be an enforcer down low in this series. The Caps lack of true speed should help him in this round. Erik Gustafsson played last year for Laviolette in Washington. A hot start when Fox was out receded to mediocrity and calls for Zac Jones, who showed he can be a true third-pairing d-man got louder as the year continued. If Gus struggles, Jones or Chad Ruhwedel, acquired at the deadline, will replace him.
In the postseason, all three pairings played well against Washington. Right now the major concern is Adam Fox's knee. He took a knee-to-knee hit from Nick Jensen in the fourth game, the same knee hit by Sebastian Aho that cost him 10 games early in the season. Fox has not practiced this week. The hope/belief/expectation is that he will suit up Game 1, but some doubt has creeped in.
K'Andre Miller was New York's best defenseman last round. Miller has stepped up his game when paired with Braden Schneider, dominating all over the ice. Schneider has not been far behind, raising his level of play. Now, the advanced metrics don't reflect this, as Miller and Schneider were the only pair that was outchanced and outscored. But the eye test didn't reflect this.
Ironically, the Ryan Lindgren-Fox pairing was the Rangers' worst in the series, which says a lot based on their prior play. If Fox is healthy, and he did practice Saturday after missing the prior two, this is not a combination that worries me. Putting Miller and Scheider together allowed Jacob Trouba to be moved to the third line with Erik Gustafsson. He is able to be sheltered a bit, though Trouba blocked 21 shots against the Caps and will need to play a huge role in this match up for New York to advance. Gustafsson is best served on this pairing and likely will get better zone starts at home again. On the road is where the concern sits.
As well as the pairs played against Washington, the same can not be said versus Carolina. Laviolette restored the pairs to what we saw most of the season, as the Miller-Scheider duo had their difficulties resulting in Trouba getting paired again with Miller and Gustafsson skating with Schneider. The purpose of playing Trouba and Gustafsson together was to shelter Trouba which won't be the case now.
Trouba was brutal last series, especially early, when he was called for eight penalties and was on ice for eight of 10 goals the team allowed. We could see Miller-Scheider paired again at some point and how these three trios play will go a long way to determining the outcome. Fox continued to struggle, impacted by the knee-to-knee hit by Nick Jensen in the prior round. Lindgren actually became the more offensive minded of the duo, especially in the clinching game when he set up Kreider for the game-winner. Lindgren didn't practice the three days prior to the start of this round, which is concerning. But knowing Robo Ryan, he will be in the lineup,
Shesterkin
Quick
Shesterkin had an up-and-down campaign, but found his form again after the All-Star Break. He got off to a strong start but was scuffling leading to the ASG, in which he represented the Rangers. Igor had an a 2.86 GAA, .899 save percentage and zero shutouts in 32 games through the NHL All-Star break, but went 17-5-1 with a 2.20 GAA, .930 save percentage and four shutouts in 23 games from Feb. 9 through the end of the season and enters the playoffs on a roll, winning seven of his last nine contests, including a shutout. Jonathan Quick has given the team a solid backup netminder, notching a .911 save percentage. His greatest value may be in the locker room, where he brings a steady presence and three Stanley Cups.
Shesterkin carried forward his fine end of year performance into the Caps series. He allowed just seven goals in four games, posting a .931 save percentage. On paper, this is where New York has a material edge. That said, Andersen stepped his game down the stretch, which was a large reason why Carolina almost won the division, conference and President's Trophy. He wasn't great at all times against the Islanders, posting a 2.25 goals-against average .912 save percentage and more than two goals saved above average. But with the firepower the Canes have, that was good enough, and Andersen is a significant upgrade over Antti Raanta, who was in net when the two teams met in 2022. Igor will need to be at his best for New York to win the series.
Igor was Igor versus the Hurricanes. Against a very good Carolina offense, Shesterkin allowed three goals in four of the six games and four in one, but that doesn't tell the full story. When a key stop was needed, Shesterkin continually bailed out his defense. This was exceedingly evident in Game 2, when he stopped 54 of 57 shots in an overtime win, and in Game 6, when he stoned Carolina on all 16 shots in the third period to allow New York a chance to win. He has a record of 8-2 with a 2.40 GAA and a .923 save percentage after two rounds of the postseason.
NHL.com preview
2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Rangers vs. Panthers Eastern Final preview https://t.co/Xv6QDqPFDB
Vladimir Tarasenko-Aleksander Barkov-Sam Reinhart
Carter Verhaeghe-Anton Lundell-Matthew Tkachuk
Eetu Luostarinen-Sma Bennett-Evan Rodrigues
Nick Cousins-Kevin Stenlund-Ryan Lomberg
Extra: Kyle Okposo, Steven Lorenz
Florida's offense is driven by the performance of their top-seven, which consists of their top-six and whoever centers the third line. Barkov is an elite performance on both sides of the ice, driving possession offensively and as seen in his 57 assists this year, he is more of a facilitator. Of course when you have Reinhart, who scored a career-high 57 goals, you are likely going to look to set him up. As the NHL.com preview noted, Reinhart is similar to Kreider in that he scores a lot of his goals from in front of the net. Three of his five playoff goals have come from 13 feet and in from the net. The Barkov-Reinhart duo is joined by Tarasenko, who was with the Rangers after last year's deadline and was a deadline acquisition this year by Florida. All three are proven playoff performers, and as Merocgliano noted, Barkov’s line has generated a 56.3% xGF in these playoffs.
The Panthers' second line is no slouch. Tkachuk is the main name, but the other two should not be ignored. Tkachuk carried the Cats last year down the stretch and in the playoffs. His offense during the season fell off slightly, but he still had 26 goals and 62 assists on the year, down from 109 and 104 points the prior two seasons. Verhaeghe was just as consistent as the prior year, posting 34 goals and 38 helpers after 42 and 31 the prior season. He is a free agent after the season and looking at a monster contract. Lundell moved onto this line in the postseason. He tallied just 13 markers and 22 helpers during the year but has raised his game the last few weeks. Sam Bennett could slot back onto this line.
Bennett had his usual 40-point campaign, but he is known for his grit and ability to get under an opponent's skin. He will do whatever it takes to win, going over the line, as we saw against Boston. Rodrigues has bounced around to a few teams but is a prototypical, solid third winger with 12 goals and 27 helpers. Luostarinen saw his production fall from 17 goals and 26 apples to 12 and 15 and finished the year on a major goal-scoring drought.
The fourth line is an energy, agitative, get under your skin and force you to take a penalty trio. As noted above, Cousins is everyone's favorite enemy while Lomberg had 179 hits for the second straight season. Stenlund is in the lineup, but Kyle Okposo could end up replacing someone on this line or third trio.
Barkov and Reinhart each have five goals while Tarasenko has notched a pair. Defensively, they shut down their opponents. The second line has been the most consistent unit. All three skaters have produced at least nine points in the playoffs, led by 14 from Tkachuk, while Tkachuk and Verhaeghe have combined for 11 game-winning goals between the last two postseasons. Lundell has seamlessly stepped between that duo. Mercogliano noted this line has outscored opponents by a 5-1 margin in just 47.3 minutes with a 66.7% xGF and 40-25 advantage in unblocked shot attempts. This is why we could see this group remaining together with Bennett relegated to the third unit.
Bennett has potted two goals and dished out as many helpers while Rodrigues chipped in three and added three helpers. Luostarinen also had four points the first two rounds. If this unit contributes consistent offense, New York could be in trouble.
Blueline
Gustav Forsling-Aaron Ekblad
Niko Mikkola-Brandon Montour
Oliver Ekman-Larsson-Dimitry Kulikov
Forsling led all Florida defensemen with 39 points (10 goals and 29 assists), picking up the slack when Ekblad was sidelined. He has scored between 39 and 41 points each of the last three seasons while also being a defensive stalwart. The Panthers allowed only 1.52 goals against per 60 while he was on the ice at five-on-five. Ekblad, former first overall pick, missed the first 16 games of the season following off-season shoulder surgery. He was sidelined twice more during the regular season. finishing with just four goals and 14 assists in 51 games.
Mikkola, who came to the Rangers with Tarasenko last year, signed a three-year, $7.5 million deal with the Panthers last July. He had his best offensive season with three goals and 14 assists while dishing out 119 hits and blocking 124 shots in a career-best 20:02 a game in ice time. Montour returned to earth as expected this season. After posting 16 goals and 57 assists last year, Montour, a free agent after the season, "fell" to eight goals and 25 helpers this year. The duo posted a 51.7% xGF during the regular season, with Montour, as expected, handling many of the puck-moving responsibilities while Mikkola uses his 6-foot-4 reach and closing ability to shut things down in the D zone, similar to his role after he arrived in New York last year.
OEL put together a better than expected campaign, After not scoring more than 30 points each of the last four seasons, OEL posted 32 points this year while seeing almost two minutes less a game in ice time. Kulikov is somewhat of the defensive ballast for the duo, but he added 20 points while playing his normal physical brand of hockey. If Florida needs to score, this duo has their ice time cut.
The Florida blueline has chipped in offensively during the postseason. Montour has led the way with eight points followed closely by Forsling with seven. OEL and Ekblad each have contributed four points while Mikkola has two and Kulikov has been shut out. Their defensive prowess, including the third trio, has been evident in each of the first two rounds, adding to the challenge for the Rangers offense. As NorthJersey.com pointed out, The Panthers are only allowing 24.1 shots per game in the postseason (best of the final four teams), while the Blueshirts surrender 32.5 shots on net per contest, the highest remaining of the organizations in the conference final.
Goalies:
Sergei Bobrovsky
Anthont Stolarz
The Bob backstopped the Panthers to the Stanley Cup Finals last year, getting hot after a rough regular season. This year, Bobrovsky, coached by Laviolette in Philly, posted a 2.37 goals-against average and .915 save percentage along with a league high six shutouts to help Florida win the Atlantic Division and be nominated as a Vezina Trophy finalist. Stolarz more than carried the weight as a back up, going 16-7-2 with a .925 save percentage and a 2.03 GAA. Florida had little drop off during the regular season when he was between the pipes. The Panthers finished tied with the Jets for fewest goals allowed in the league.
The 35-year-old Bob gave up 14 goals over five playoff contests in round 1 against the Lightning, though six of them came in his lone loss in Game 4. In the win over Boston, Bobrovsky posted a 2.03 GAA and a .907 save percentage over the six-game series. He is "protected" somewhat by the defense in front of him, but can steal a win if needed, even though he may not be as spectacular as Shesterkin.
Special teams: Rangers Power Play (26.4%, 3rd) vs. Panthers Penalty Kill (82.5 6th)
Hurricanes PK units:
Barkov, Reinhart, Forsling and Ekblad
Stenlund, Luostarinen, Mikkola and Kulikov
The Rangers PP opened the season on fire, slumped during their lull, then ramped it up especially late in the season. The first unit still remains out on the ice a substantial portion of the man advantage, leaving crumbs for the second unit. Panarin roams the point or slides down the left or right side. Kreider is the net-front, shot-deflector master presence, Zibanejad prefers the left hash for his one-timer, Trocheck is in the bumper slot and Fox coordinates from the point.
When the group is rolling, the puck and player movement is quick and decisive. When they overpass or fail to move, that's when they struggle. In addition, zone entries are not always clean, but they have done a better job in that regard. The hiring of Michael Peca as a coach has aided the PP substantially, diversifying the attack somewhat.
Against Washington, New York was 6-for-16 on the man-advantage. Their special teams play was a major reason why the team advanced. Carolina was brilliant during the season while shorthanded. They took a step back against the Islanders, killing 72.7 of the penalties after finishing first in the league at 86.4% during the regular season, due to their pressure down low.
As Bingo noted, the Canes like to pressure the puck all over the ice so they will often forget about the guy standing in front of the net. If that happens, CK20 could have a field day in front as well as Trcheck from the slot. How the two teams fare here, like most series, will play a major role in who advances. But if New York can make Carolina pay for taking penalties, it will help even out the 5x5 discrepancy that exists.
Against Carolina, as expected, New York struggled at times. After a hot start to the round, by going 4-for-9, the Canes pressured the Rangers in the neutral zone and high in the D zone, neutralizing a limited Fox. The end result was nine straight failed opportunities before Kreider scored the tying goal in Game 6, deflecting a Panarin shot. Overall, the Rangers are 11-for-35 in the postseason.
Florida had a pair of shorthanded goals in the postseason and have been successful in stopping 86.1% of the power play against, good for third in the league. The top unit with Barkov and Reinhart are dangerous offensively as well as shut down duo defensively. Boston only mustered one goal in almost 26 minutes of power-play time against the Panthers’ penalty kill through six games, struggling with Florida's aggressive four-man unit, especially through the neutral zone.
Panthers Power Play (23.5%, 8th) vs. Rangers Penalty Kill (84.5, 3rd)
Panthers PP units:
Montour, Reinhart, Barkov, Tkachuk and Verhaeghe;
Ekman-Larsson, Bennett, Rodrigues, Tarasenko and Lundell
The Panthers PP is reliant on one source. Reinhart led the league with 27 PP goals, followed by a significant drop-off to Verhaeghe with eight. That doesn't mean you should look past either of the two units given the talent that exists. New York's PK operated as a cohesive unit, resulting in the marked improvement we saw during the year.
Florida's PP has taken a slight dip this postseason, scoring on 22% of their chances. Despite the decline, the Panthers are dangerous based on the skill and willingness to take the punishment down - mainly Reinhart and Tkachuk - low to score.
As SkjeiStadium noted last round, the Rangers biggest strength on the PK is pressuring the blue line and creating turnovers, both on zone entries and with in-zone setup. Kreider and Mika specifically create a lot of offense shorthanded by being aggressive at the points. That doesn't work as well if the play is being controlled along the goal line. But, a turnover down low could lead to a breakout chance if the zone is cleared, especially for Kreider with his speed.
Keys to/storylines of the series:
1) Styles - As the Athletic series preview pointed out, the Panthers create more shots and quality chances than New York. In the regular season, the Rangers had better finishing to show for it at five-on-five. Both teams lean on a lot of high-danger passing and puck movement, and Florida is a better team at defending off the rush, which will present a challenge for the Rangers. New York, however, has a knack for making more out of less.
Carolina was relentless, Florida is ferocious on their forecheck, as Larry Brooks wrote. The Canes peppered the Rangers with shots, though most were from the outside. The Panthers, who led the league in hits at 2,339, will look to get inside and use their might and strength to create traffic in front and score. Florida is aggressive defensively, so loo for New York to try and exploit that. Showing how close the teams were, just two goals separate the Rangers and Panthers defensively. New York will continue to defy the odds and produce offensively
2) Connections: A battle of Russian goalies Shesterkin vs. Bobrovsky. who are close. Panarin and Bobrovsky are best friends, a relationship that started when Panarin arrived in Columbus and Bobrovksy was there. Dan Rosen reported that Panarin said he's the godfather to Bobrovsky's 2-year-old daughter, Carolina.
Adding to the familiarity, Trocheck spent the first seven seasons of his NHL career with the Panthers. Tarasenko and Mikkola played for the Rangers as playoff rentals a year ago. A trio of current Rangers — Trouba, Wheeler and Roslovic — all played for Panthers coach Paul Maurice in Winnipeg.
3) Goaltending Bobrovsky is not Shesterkin's equal but he is playoff tested and likely won't wilt as Frederik Andersen has done in the past. He carried the team to the SCF last season and is a big reason why they are in the ECF again. Shesterkin is playing at an elite level, raising his game when needed to either keep New York in a game or preserve a lead. He got a taste of the ECF two years ago and is looking to take the Rangers a step or two further this season.
4) Special teams: The numbers here, both on the PP and PK, favor New York. The penalty kill has been consistently solid, though Carolina with quick puck movement and high to low action exposed a few flaws. Florida raised their PK against Boston after a so-so round versus Tampa.
For New York offensively, like the first two rounds, the objective is don't be too fancy. Rely on what's worked during the year and maximize those chances, forcing the Panthers to maintain their structure. The second unit might get Chytil, who is more of a shooter than Kakko. On the PK, they will need to be strong down low to guard Reinhart but retain their structure.
5) Starpower - Both units have elite scorers and playmakers, un front and on the blue line. Presuming they negate one another, the secondary units take on even more importance. Florida has seven top players but Rodrigues has shown the ability to step up his game. For New York, the X-factor may be Chytil, who was brilliant in 2022 against Carolina and could be the boost needed in this series, if he remains healthy.
Prediction:
On paper, Florida has the advantage pretty much across the board. Stop me if you have heard that before. Oh right, last round against Carolina the story was the same. This is why New York actually enters this match up as the underdog.
As the Athletic preview noted, the Panthers are getting looks, and actually beating the Rangers in expected goals/60 (11.5 to 10.3). That fact, combined with their track record of power-play success and a penalty kill that has limited opportunities better than 14 other playoff teams, will give them a shot at neutralizing one of New York’s major advantages.
The regular season numbers can be tossed away, as the three games don't tell us that much. If you believe in history, as the Athletic noted, the last time a Presidents’ Trophy winner was even outside the top three in goal-differential was in 1979. New York’s plus-53 ranks seventh. That’s a lot closer to where oddsmakers had the team’s Cup chances to start the postseason (sixth) as well as our own odds (fifth). But the Rangers have spent the year "beating the odds."
Florida is a complete team, offensively, defensively and in net. The team is better than the one that went to the SCF last year. Tarasenko's acquisition deepens the roster. While all of that is true, this ignores what we have referred to as the It factor or resilience.
New York has made a habit of coming back all year. They were at the top of comeback victories. In the playoffs, the Rangers have found a way to hang around and then rally for a win when needed. The Panthers are the stronger team but the Rangers’ ability to get that extra goal more than any other team can’t be ignored. When the expected margin in each game is under one goal, New York’s knack for getting it could very well be the difference.
For New York to win, they will need to find a way offensively to negate Florida's strength defensively, which is shot limitation. Defensively, they will need to be a cohesive five-man unit to prevent the Panthers from controlling play and possession, especially the top-two lines. If all that fails, Shesterkin will need to stand on his head as he did in Game 6 against the Hurricanes.
All the numbers point to the Panthers. They are deeper offensively than 2023, better defensively than last year and looking to take that next step, which is to win the Cup. New York, though, is better coached and should have a plan to counter what Florida does best. My gut - and the numbers - say to pick the Panthers in seven and I wouldn't be shocked if that is the case. That said, though, the "it factor"and team of destiny sure is looking like it is the case. Just to add some spice, Trocheck nets the series winning goal.
New York Rangers Blogger • 
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