Let's get out of the way right now. Dustin Brown had an awful year. A career-low year.
Is this indicative of his play as a hockey player entirely? No.
With that in mind though, you have to wonder what Dustin Brown really is. Is he a top-six winger?
The Kings had a year where one thing, if anything, became pretty evident: They have some bad contracts. Mike Richards makes a lot of money and did not perform up to par. Jarret Stoll and Robyn Regehr both took up pretty decent marks on the books and did not perform up to standards.
With a $5.875MM AAV cap hit, you would have to say the same for the Kings captain.
Oh, and by the way, that cap hit is going to last for another seven years.
In reality, what are the Kings paying for? In 2011-12, when Brown was on his first major contract making $3.175MM AAV a season, it was an absolute steal. The now 30-year old Brown was putting up goals near 25 a season and points around 50-60. For 3.175 that was a bargain. Enter 2014-15, where Brown commenced the first year of his newly signed eight-year extension. All of a sudden, he looks overpaid, and that contract looks potentially as toxic as Mike Richards.
In today's NHL and for today's NHL GM, value is everything. If you pay a player like a top-six forward, fans and ownership alike want that player to play like a top-six winger. You have to ask the question when it comes to players that do not live up to the contract, was there good reason to sign him to this initially? With Brown you can easily see why. Even at a 25-goal and 50-60 point production, a contract that nearly touches $6-million dollars seems hefty. However, Brown is captain of the team, he has earned his keep in L.A. being a homegrown talent.
However, his play and peripheral numbers are indicative of something a bit more concerning, even if you go back to the days of his 60 points and 25 goals.
It has been stated on this blog before, and it is a topic of some contention amongst fans, but Dustin Brown probably should not be on the top line for the Los Angeles Kings. We talked about it in depth back in February,
but Brown essentially drives down the play of the top line when he is paired up with Kopitar. That link should really be required reading before moving forward, but in short, Brown loves to possess the puck and when he does that he takes it away from Kopitar and Gaborik. Thus, the Ithaca native makes two of the Kings premier offensive players less effective. It is like that really bad kid in basketball who cannot shoot but refuses to pass to others. Brown, if he keeps his game simple by driving the net and disrupting play, can be an effective complementary winger. However, he is far too alpha male of a player for that.
To be fair to Brown, he has never been that way. You have to sort of commend the Kings captain for that. He plays his game, no matter who he is with, no matter the situation. Here is a brief look at Dustin Brown peripheral 5v5 possession numbers from the last eight years.
Notice how consistent everything is? Shot rates, corsi, fenwick, time on ice.
Even Brown's zone starts are relatively consistent.
(Stats provided by Stats.hockeyanalysis.com)
Again, you have to like just how consistent a player he is and be somewhat impressed with that. You often here the cliche, "Play your game." Dustin Brown, along with the hitting, the high shot rate, etc. tends to play his game all the time.
Starting last season, there was a trend in Dustin Brown's numbers: his point production dropped significantly. The shooting percentages are down for Brown in both years, at 7.7% and 5.8% respectively. Those are far away from the near 12% clip he was shooting at in his hay days. However, even a slight downturn in shooting percentage should not equal a production slip as significant as that.
There is also another factor that may be more telling: He has played a ton less minutes alongside Anze Kopitar.
Starting last season Brown was taken off the top line more frequently than in the lockout year. The lockout year, while still a decent year of production for Brown, saw his game slip a little. The adjustment Sutter seemed to make was to remove Brown from the top-six entirely and start working him into the bottom-six alongside the likes of Jarret Stoll, Mike Richards, and Dwight King.
You can see it clear as day when you look at Kopitar's 5-on-5 WOWY charts. Check out how Dustin Brown nearly had his ice time with No.11 cut in half.
2010-2011
Top-line DB!
2011-2012
LOCKOUT
2013-14
Uh oh.......
2014-15
He has seen a sharp decrease in ice time with Kopitar. While the effects of Dustin Brown vacating the top line have meant a slight increase to Kopitar and the winger that is plugged into that slot, ala Justin Williams, the loss to Brown has been significant. Half the ice time on the top line, half the production.
That is troubling for a number of reasons.
First off, most of your premier players in the league will be good no matter who they play with. This is the argument that has been made countless times when it comes to Jake Muzzin, and we are seeing it more recently with Tyler Toffoli. It seemed like no matter who Toffoli or Muzzin were paired up with their production and level of play never dipped. The peripheral possession numbers and production stayed relatively consistent. You can look at other teams and pull names and find the same conclusion. For Example, Mats Zuccarello of the New York Rangers had nearly the same numbers alongside Chris Kreider as he did with Derrick Brassard and Rick Nash. Niklas Backstrom is good no matter who you put him with. You can find good examples everywhere. Better examples even.
Dustin Brown, when separated from Kopitar went from a top line player to little more than a 25 point bottom-six forward. The drop off should not be that steep.
Particularly when you factor in the second point: Brown is getting paid like a top-six winger. Heck, he is getting paid like a
top-LINE winger. He is the second highest paid forward on the L.A. Kings, and has a cap hit that is more expensive than Marian Hossa, Patrick Sharp, Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, John Tavares, Jarome Iginla, Gabriel Landeskog, Blake Wheeler etc. etc.
If you take any one of those players and remove them from their most consistent line partner, I doubt you would see a production level that cuts in half.
The third problem is that the lockout year was the last year in which Kopitar and Brown spent significant time together. Brown's numbers, although still good in the goal-scoring department, were declining even then. If he cannot somehow rekindle the 50-60 point form on the top line, the Kings are really going to have no place to put him that would maximize his value. The top line seems to be the only true place that Brown can be and even come close to living up to his contract dollar amount. While it takes a shot at some of Kopitar's possession stats, it is the best of a potentially bad impending situation. The Kings will likely have a vacated top-six position in 2015-16 with Justin Williams leaving, but the future that is Adrian Kempe and Valentin Zykov is coming.
Dustin Brown signed his extension in the midst of some his best years in the NHL. Unfortunately at 30-years old and looking at the trends, it does seem like Brown might ever surpass those numbers he posted five seasons ago. If you are a fan of the team you would have to hope that the Kings do not get caught in a situation where they signed a player at his peak, only to have the bottom approach quicker than normal. Just because you play as a top-six forward and get paid like a top-six forward, that does not mean you are a top-six forward.
This should not be a situation that is damning on Brown's ability as a hockey player, nor to criticize his game. This is simply a commentary on something we are seeing more and more of these days in the salary cap era of the NHL. Money versus performance. Everyone wants value. If you take the contract out of the equation, Brown is a worthwhile complimentary player. He hits, he plays physical, he is assertive, and he has leadership qualities that mean a lot to the LA Kings locker room. With defensively responsible play and 30 points a season you will take that....from a bottom six player. You will take that from Dwight King, but you expect more from Dustin Brown. Those expectations and the contract seem to have come when Brown was in his most prominent role alongside one of the best centermen currently playing the game. How on earth do you live up to that as a player? Maybe the shooting percentage turns up a bit next year and the top line minutes boost Brown's progressively downward play. Regardless, next year may very well be the biggest year of Brown's career. The Kings are tight on money as is and have several massive deals to get under the cap before Brown's contract is even close to done.
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