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What if I were to tell you there was a way that the L.A. Kings could keep Justin Williams, Andrej Sekera, and Tyler Toffoli? What if I told you that they could do it, be a cap team, and not have any holes on the roster?
Before you get excited though, it comes in what you could call a near perfect scenario. It also comes in a scenario where we assume the outcome of negotiations. We also assume that no GM in his right mind would have the gaul and shrewdness of business sense to offer sheet the Kings on Tyler Toffoli.
But hey, what else to we have to talk about right now other than this? I assume no one wants to talk about how the Ducks are on their way to the Conference finals right?
It is a little bit quick and dirty, but here is the overall scenario if you want to be hopeful that the Kings will field a very similar and competitive roster next season. Mind you, term is not specified in this either, and the Kings have some big contracts to think about long term. Namely the Kopitar deal which is up after next season and will likely be a hefty raise to his current $6.8MM cap hit.
As of today, the Kings have exactly $4.886MM available in space.
In terms of RFAs that would impact the NHL roster, they have the following:
Toffoli
Shore
Andreoff
Jones
In terms of UFAs that would impact the NHL roster they have the following:
Andrej Sekera
Justin Williams
Jamie McBain
Jarret Stoll
For all intents and purposes, it looks like the Kings are going to move forward with Derek Forbort potentially, who would be worth a 900K cap hit.
Then, of course, the Voynov situation. That hangs a potential $4.167MM dollars up in the air that may or may not be available.
Furthermore,
we have the Mike Richards buyout possibility. That would knock the Kings for a cap penalty of $1.467M for the next 10 years, but alleviate the team of his $5.75M hit right now. Thus, a buyout would create $4.283M in cap space next season for the Kings if it were executed.
EDIT: Thanks to reader tkecanuck341
The Kings would get hit with some buyout recapture penalty, meaning the cap hits would look like this:
2015-16 - $1.217M
2016-17 - $1.717M
2017-18 - $2.717M
2018-19 - $4.217M
2019-20 - $4.217M
2020-25 - $1.467M
Alright, here is where the scenario has to become perfect. Murphy's Law aside, let's say it all happens.
The Kings are eligible to void Voynov's contract post legal proceedings, they also buyout Mike Richards.
With these two things happening the Kings would have $13.336M in space.
The big two are going to be both Sekera and Toffoli. With $13.336M the Kings should realistically be able to nab both.
Sekera, was reportedly looking for between $5.5M and $6.0M. With the Hurricanes unable to pay that he was traded.
Alright, let's do some math.
Let's say he takes a small discount off of that and signs with the Kings for $5.0M. (Best friend Marian Gaborik! Work it!)
They now have 8.336M to re-sign Toffoli. This one could be the breaker of this perfect scenario even if everything goes according to plan. A bridge contract is probably what the Kings want, something in the range of $2.5-3M a year. Will Toffoli accept that? Who knows. For fun, let's say the Kings do get the bridge contract of $2.5M. If you think that's unrealistic, do note that the Kings were able to get Tanner Pearson on a bridge hit of $1.4M until 2017-18. Maybe they even get Toffoli for $2.225M or so, who knows?
Alright, that's Toffoli and Sekera and $5.836M in space.
Now all the small guys. Let's go ahead and say the Kings re-up Andreoff and Shore. We can put Shore at 925K likely. Andreoff, since he made below $660K last season (550K), has to see an increase of 110 percent of last season's salary. Ergo, Andreoff would be a hit of $605K.
$4.333M remaining.
Now what about Jones? What about Forbort or McBain? Finally, what about Williams?
In this scenario, the Kings probably would have to let Martin Jones go. Which, to be realistic, there is a good possibility of that anyways. Possibly via trade. There have been rumblings of teams like Buffalo and Edmonton potentially looking. The Kings back up goalie is in a similar scenario to Andreoff, where is qualifying offer would set him up for $605K. Is there arbitration in that discussion? I'd say it is more than likely given some of the results Martin Jones has achieved (even though last season was less than stellar).
In all likelihood that opens the door to either A) J.F. Berube, who has been fantastic in the AHL, or B) a league minimum back up.
Let's go with Berube, a promotion from within.
That is a hit of $575K. The Kings have their back-up goalie.
In a similar promotion from within, the Kings move with Forbort and opt to let McBain walk. McBain was making $550K, and even though he may be cheaper than Forbort's ELC hit of $900K, he looks ready to hit the big time. At least in a seventh defenseman role.
That's $575K and 900K out. A remaining cap hit for Williams of $2.858M.
Williams is coming off a contract where he had a hit of $3.65M, and had a salary in the final season of that deal of $3.050M. Does he take that discount? It is definitely millionaires talking about millions. The blue collar man would say take it and stay with the Kings right? Williams will be aged 34 at the start of next season and has largely been on a declining trend. That being said he is still valuable in all of his statistical categories, and would be pretty strong short term option in either the 1RW position or the 3RW position.
There ya have it. The Kings spent all their money up to the cap, and the roster filled out as follows:
Gaborik - Kopitar - Williams
Pearson - Carter - Toffoli
King - Shore/Lewis - Brown
Clifford - Shore/Lewis - Nolan
Andreoff
Doughty - Muzzin
McNabb - Sekera
Greene - Martinez
Forbort
Quick
Berube
It is a 22-man roster instead of the maxed 23, but that is not entirely uncommon. They will have an extra forward and an extra defenseman, and in an extreme emergency scenario would be able to call up a player from nearby Ontario (45 minutes to Los Angeles)
Congrats, you did it Dean Lombardi. You kept everyone and even got rid of some dead weight!
Now here is the reality: These are all speculative contract amounts, speculative happenings in regards to players, and perfect, non-offer sheet, non-arbitration numbers. Again, Murphy's Law applies: anything that can go wrong, will go wrong. Also, there is probably error somewhere in here due to the math and of the CBA and stuff. Let's face it, that stuff can get confusing.
It might be that almost all of this stuff happens and then the Kings shed Williams in order to pay the extra amount to Toffoli or Sekera. Toffoli will probably want much more than that, aka, not a bridge deal. Perhaps the Voynov trial pushes past July 1st and the Kings end up losing out on free agency due to the limbo status of the Russian defenseman. Perhaps Richards stays, and Voynov goes or vice versa. There may be a trade here which involves cap space or personnel coming back the other way.
We will go over some good for value free agents in the future, but for now, bask in what would be the perfect cap scenario for the Kings this off-season. It probably will not happen, but it never hurts to dream right?
(All cap numbers provided by NHLNumbers)
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