Wednesday evening brings Game Six of the First Round of the NHL Playoffs between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Minnesota Wild. Three straight Golden Knights wins are now sandwiched by two Wild victories, after the latter extended their playoff lives with a 4-2 home win.
Did the Wild simply want one last home game or will the team up north make a real run at a series win? What happens if they do win Game Six? Does that put Vegas on the ropes? Can the Golden Knights come back from that?
Those questions are fun to ponder, but what we do know is that regardless of the game script, neither of these teams are out of any given game between one another. Every game is feisty, hard-fought, and contentious. Game Five was no different.
It isn’t farfetched to say the Golden Knights were the better team in four of these five playoff games. They’ve brought the speed, brought the pressure, and largely imposed their will on the Wild. A 1-0 OT loss in Game One, a game where they outshot the Wild 42-30, could come back to haunt the VGK.
Cam Talbot has made a habit of stifling the Golden Knights. He’s been stellar when he plays Vegas and that nasty habit has resurfaced twice this postseason. He’s been good all year, but the Golden Knights have found some recent success against him. They’re averaging just under three goals per game, taking the shutout into effect.
Which version of Talbot shows up this evening? The Talbot who saves 40+ shots against the VGK or the Talbot who has played for multiple organizations, struggling along the way prior to his revival in Minnesota?
That same question could be asked about Marc-Andre Fleury. He was shutting down the Wild offense before giving up a whopping three goals on seven first period shots in Game Five. His .966 save percentage took a major hit in those 20 minutes and his team wasn’t able to recover despite their territorial and specifically second period dominance.
All things considered, the question remains. Is Game Six a “MUST WIN” for the Vegas Golden Knights? Can they come back and win a Game Seven
IF they happened to lose this crucial road game?
Digging themselves out of a two-game skid is something this team only experienced three times during the 2020-21 season. They pride themselves on being a team of “veterans” who know how to handle multiple situations and scenarios, but everyone is human at the end of the day.
Their first two-game losing streak came in a four-game set with the first place Colorado Avalanche. They won the first and last meeting, dropping the middle two. The next team to put them behind a multi-game 8-ball was ironically the Wild, twice.
Minnesota enjoyed two straight home wins over the Golden Knights in early March. The VGK were able to regroup and win an OT their next game in St. Louis. Later that month, on the heels of a loss to the LA Kings, the VGK dropped two home games to the Wild. It was the longest losing streak of the season.
Although they lost that third game in a row to the Wild, they again rebounded against the Blues with their next opportunity for two points. They’ve minimized losing and specifically losing in bunches. History says they typically don’t lose back-to-back games and even when they do, they win very soon after.
Up until and even during most of Game Five, the Golden Knights have dominated this playoff series with the Wild. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Golden Knights have accrued an 80 attempt edge in Corsi For (shots attempted in all strengths).
Both Talbot and Fleury are enjoying save percentages north of .930, so this game could very well come down OT the men in goal. Vegas threw a wrench in preparations when both Fleury and Lehner left the morning skate ice together, taking away our preview of who the starter would be.
Finally, what has happened historically when a team drops games 5 and 6 in the playoffs? Although every team and series is different, checking out the trend could be helpful in determining if this is a MUST WIN for the Golden Knights.
From 1987 (the year all playoff series were expanded to best of seven series) to 2018, only 26 teams have come back to win their series when down 3-1. Ironically, only one team has come back from down 3-1 in the same playoffs twice. That team was the 2003 Minnesota Wild.
Even still, the success rate of the team trailing 3-1 in that time is a mere 5.24%. Essentially the Wild have a 5.24% chance of winning this series. It’s a pretty slim feat.
So, all-in-all Game Five isn’t a MUST WIN, but no team wants to face that probability. The Golden Knights would be best served closing out the series tonight in Minnesota. Even though they’d like to clinch a series at home for the first time in franchise history, there’s no comfort in allowing the Wild a Game Seven.
Maintaining their dominance is important to the Golden Knights. If they let the Wild back in this one, I’d be really worried about this VGK club. Their roster is too talented to drop three straight games and at that point, where’s their hunger?
Summary: It isn’t a must win, but it really is.
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Referenced: http://www.puckreport.com/2009/04/nhl-playoff-comebacks-trailing-3-1.html?m=1
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