Tuesday, August 11, the big day! The real NHL playoffs will finally get underway. On this day, the Chicago Blackhawks and Vegas Golden Knights will begin a series pitting a playoff lock against a team who's playing with a second life.
Originally far from the playoff picture, the Blackhawks were gifted an opportunity to win a play-in series and capitalized, beating the Edmonton Oilers three games to one. Meanwhile, the Golden Knights played in a three game Round Robin series reserved for the top four teams in each conference.
The hottest team at the time of the playoffs, usually wins the Stanley Cup. As of right now, the Hawks are flying high, as are the Golden Knights who finished their Round Robin 3-0-0. Without further fanfare, let's dive into this unlikely, but certain-to-be exciting matchup.
Brass Tax Stats:
Over the past decade, enough sufficient data has been compiled, to argue that the Chicago Blackhawks were the best team of the 2010s. Three Stanley Cups, eight straight postseason visits, and multiple individual awards later and here they are again.
This team got to the dance with a very different format and different strategy than they've employed in the past. They haven't been as dominant and the numbers certainly tell that story.
In their series against the Edmonton Oilers - a series they won three games to one - the Blackhawks trailed in nearly every advanced metric published. They finished the round with the following marks during 175-plus minutes of 5-on-5 play. Keep in mind that anything over 50% is ideal.
Round 1 Team Stats:
Corsi For %: 151 CF, 177 CA, 46.04%
SOG %: 83 SOG, 99 SA, 45.6%
xGF %: 5.83% xGF, 9.01 xGA, 39.27%
SCF%: 75 SCF, 92 SCA, 44.9%
HDCF %: 31 HDCF, 48 HDCA, 39.24%
These numbers suggest a strong 5-on-5 performance from the Oilers, but that's all it is, a suggestion. Edmonton won one miniscule game, despite playing in their own barn. Chicago was able to break through, outscoring the Oilers by a 12-9 clip at 5-on-5 and advanced to the round of 16. Either the Blackhawks are talented finishers or the Oilers' fate was sealed in goal.
One of the only statistical areas where the Blackhawks graded higher than the opposition was in net. Their SV% of.909 put them well ahead of the Oilers' mark of .855. Both Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen crashed and burned in goal, while Corey Crawford gave the Blackhawks just enough to advance.
To break it down further, the Hawks had just one game of the four in which they drove play and led the way by the metrics. That game was their series opening victory. One look at
Natural Stat Trick's series gameflow chart beautifully paints the confusing picture of that series.
By now, the NHL is well aware that the Vegas Golden Knights are a talented team and advanced stats darlings. While the Blackhawks had just four players finish the series with a CF% above 50%, the Golden Knights only had two that didn't. Among those to finish below the 50% was Alex Tuch, their leading goal scorer. How the Blackhawks deal with unrelenting pressure will dictate how this series goes.
Getting Offensive:
As they've aged, younger complimentary pieces have joined Jonathan Towes and Patrick Kane to attempt to return the Hawks to the promised land. Guys like Alex Debrincat, Dominik Kubalik, Kirby Dach, and Matthew Highmore are filling important roles for the (rebuilding?) Hawks.
While their forward lines rotated a bit throughout the series, the Blackhawks seemed to settle into a set roster.
Debrincat - Dach - Kane
Saad - Toews - Kubalik
Nylander - Strome - Caggiula
Carpenter - Kampf - Highmore
In that formation, the lines produced the following 5-on-5 results:
Line 1: 3 GF, 0 GA
Line 2: 5 GF, 2 GA
Line 3: 0 GF, 0 GA (3 GA with Kane)
Line 4: 2 GF, 2 GA
With the failure of Kane alongside Strome and the success of the above lines, I expect to see those units hold through at least two games. If the Blackhawks drop two straight, the blender may come out. They are an overwhelming underdog (+260 - +300) at the sports books and may be on their heels by Game Three on Saturday evening.
Captain Jonathan Toews paces the scoring department, lighting the lamp four times in the four games against Edmonton. Kane only had one goal, but is prone to break out. He has a penchant for big moments, dating back to his 2010 Stanley Cup clinching, OT GWG against the Philadelphia Flyers. He will undoubtedly be on the Golden Knights' radar.
Vegas will line up a bit differently with the return of their top-line left wing, Max Pacioretty. He missed all three Round Robin wins.
Pacioretty - Karlsson - Stone
Marchessault - Stastny - Smith
Stephenson - Cousins - Tuch
Carrier - Roy - Reaves
Roy had a strong second half of the season, but struggled a bit in the Round Robin, mainly against the Stars. He is a big body, with speed, and looked good on the fourth line prior to the COVID stoppage. That line is only improved by his inclusion and Tomas Nosek's benching.
Pacioretty's return will be a boost to the top-end of the VGK depth chart. He led the team in goal scoring during the regular season and frankly, looked rejuvenated this year. His 67 points were just one shy of tying his (2xs) career best and in 10 fewer games. Playing with Mark Stone doesn't hurt, but Pacioretty is the proven sniper of the unit.
Tuch's offensive reemergence, combined with the return of Pacioretty makes the Golden Knights extremely dangerous. They'll roll a second-to-few top-nine and rely on the fourth line solely for energy. The fourth line could be exposed against deeper teams, but they should add some value to this series against the Blackhawks.
Special Teams Summary:
Up a Man (PP):
- VGK: 27.3%
Pacioretty - Stastny - Stone
Marchessault - Theodore
Tuch - Karlsson - Smith
Martinez/Cousins - Schmidt
- CHI: 22.2%
Kane - Toews - Dach
Keith - Kubalik
Debrincat - Strome - Saad
Boqvist - Nylander
Man Down!! (PK):
- VGK: 80.0%
Karlsson - Smith
McNabb - Schmidt
Stastny - Stone
Martinez - Whitecloud
Roy - Tuch
- CHI: 70.6%
Carpenter - Saad
Murphy - Keith
Toews - Kampf
DeHann - Maata
Debrincat Suspension Looming?
In their series-clinching game of the Oilers' series, Alex Debrincat got himself in some hot water. Debrincat finished off Ethan Bear on a standard defensive zone exit up the boards. Behr had his back to Debrincat when he was hit and finished forcefully, face-first into the boards.
Check out the hit below and judge it for yourself.
Alex DeBrincat takes a boarding major for this dangerous looking hit on Ethan Bear, who would be forced to leave the ice during the Chicago Blackhawks vs Edm...
While the NHL Department of Player Safety has yet to make a statement on the play, it was a foregone conclusion that Debrincat would get a call.
Penalties, Shame! Shame! Shame! :
The major penalty assessed to Debrincat represented five of the 37 penalty minutes the Hawks picked up in the Play-In Round. On the other hand, the Golden Knights took 12 minor penalties in their three RR games.
Brayden McNabb has had a tendency to pick up the occasional minor penalty, but needs to remain on the ice as the best stay-at-home defenseman on the roster. He is backed up on the left side by Alec Martinez and Nick Holden, while Shea Theodore can also be used if needed
Tending the Net:
One newcomer will start and the other will sit. Goaltenders Malcolm Subban and Robin Lehner were swapped for one another at the trade deadline. When that happened, not a single person envisioned a playoff series pitting the two teams against one another. One pandemic and format change later and we are here. Head Coach Pete DeBoer named Lehner the Game One starter and he's happy about it?
Golden Knights General Manager Kelly McCrimmon doubled down on his reasoning for the trade on a press Zoom call Monday afternoon. He reiterated that he felt there wasn't enough behind Marc-Andre Fleury for where they felt the team was. Read: They are all-in.
Lehner has yet to lose a game with the Vegas Golden Knights (5-0-0) and got the nod for Game One against his former team. From his Twitter activity, it's hard to tell if he's excited or not.
Here we go ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/5zdhz9bURf
"It's a bit of a luxury having two goaltenders of that caliber, but the opportunity presented itself."
- Kelly McCrimmon
"Obviously a tough decision when you have two quality goaltenders. It wasn't what Flower didn't do, it's what Robin has done since he's gotten here."
-Pete DeBoer
As McCrimmon stated about Subban, he's not ready to carry the load, but could be very soon. Crawford's play will keep him in the driver's seat to start this series. If there's any team that will overlook youth, it's the Blackhawks, landing spot of the youngest Head Coach in the NHL. Subban is a gamer and shouldn't be taken for granted.
Crawford was the deciding factor in the Blackhawks' play in series. His xGA was 14.03 and he allowed a total of 15 goals. The Edmonton tendies didn't fare as well, having a combined xGA of 9.23 while allowing 16 goals. Crawford performed as needed and the opponent did not. He won't have that luxury in this series.
Jeffrey's Final Thoughts:
Although the Blackhawks are a feel good story and have some nice pieces on their roster, they're simply overmatched in this series. The Golden Knights are deeper offensively, defensively, and in goal. Toews and Kane are undeniably good and can get this team a win or two, but I see Vegas advancing in five games or less.
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