It's official!
Roughly one week ago, talks of a possible 24-team playoff format began making its rounds through the hockey world. As of May 22, those dreams became reality as the NHLPA, including VGK rep Nate Schmidt, voted to accept the proposed plan.
Details of said plan have been laid out by Commissioner Gary Bettman, but are subject to change. The regular season has officially ended, making the Vegas Golden Knights the Pacific Division Champions!
In order to get players back on the ice safely, the NHL is transitioning into Phase II of their "Return to Sport" plan. It is extremely detailed and labor intensive, taking the players' safety very seriously.
Thus far, we know the following about the playoff format.
* Teams are seeded based off points percentage.
* The top four teams in each conference play in a Round Robin Round.
* Their seeding can improve/worsen depending on those games.
* West: (1)St. Louis, (2)Colorado, (3)Vegas,(4)Dallas.
* Seeds 5 - 12 play each other in a best-of-5 play-in series, to cut to the standard 16 teams.
* Round of 16 will also be a best-of-5 format.
* Montreal and Chicago, who would have missed the playoffs by far, now have a chance to win the Stanley Cup.
These games are expected to take place in two host cities, one per conference. More details will be ironed out as the NHL works through their Return to Sport plan. More NHLPA voting will take place along the way, to decide a number of factors. Schmidt will be a busy man.
There's no better time to look ahead than now, since there are a total of eight teams that could play the Golden Knights in the first (or second?) actual playoff round. Below you'll find all eight opponents and a rundown of their strengths, weaknesses, and the likelihood of each beating the Golden Knights.
12 - Chicago Blackhawks:
Key Players: Patrick Kane RW, Jonathan Toews C, Alex Debrincat LW/RW, Corey Crawford G, Brandon Saad LW, Duncan Keith D, Malcolm Subban G
Vegas' most recent trade partners have hit the lottery and with their playoff life resuscitated. Speaking of the trade, Robin Lehner has been great for the Golden Knights in three starts, while Malcolm Subban has played just one minute of shot-free hockey.
A dynasty team in the early 2010s, the Blackhawks now sport much of the same roster with less of the success. They haven't been truly dangerous since their 2016-17 Central Division Championship season, under former Head Coach Joel Quenneville.
They're exceptionally top-heavy, relying on Kane, Debrincat, and Toews for scoring. Saad remains a solid complimentary piece who can put the puck in the net. They're not a great play-driving team with a 48.45 Corsi For % (5-on-5), but the talent is still there.
Kirby Dach is an intriguing 19-year-old player, who will be a serious force as he continues to fill out his 6'4" frame. The 2019 third overall pick collected 8 goals and 15 assists through 64 games in his rookie season.
Where the Hawks really stand out is in their own end. Sadly, that is not a compliment. Although Corey Crawford's had a bounce back season and it's comforting having Lehner round out a solid tandem, the team relied too heavily on their netminders. Their 5-on-5 xGA being 29.6 goals higher than the league average (173.5 vs 143.9), lends itself to their self-induced kryptonite.
VGK Ties: Malcolm Subban G, Ryan Carpenter C/W
Odds of beating Vegas:15:1
11 - Arizona Coyotes:
Key Players: Taylor Hall LW, Phil Kessel RW, Clayton Keller C/W, Oliver Ekman-Larsson D, Darcy Kuemper G, Antti Raanta G
Arizona was one of the teams I expected to pass the San Jose Sharks this season. They did just that, but not the way I envisioned. Both teams slid down the Pacific Division standings and the Yotes just barely made it to the Play-In round.
Midway through the season, the Coyotes made a big move, picking up pending-UFA Taylor Hall in a blockbuster trade with the Devils. He's recorded 27 points in his first 35 games in desert.
Another big acquisition in his own right, Phil Kessel has experienced a down season. His 14 goals and 24 assists are underwhelming for a scorer of his caliber.
It's no secret that Arizona lives and dies by their defense corps and have one of the best goaltender duos (or even trios) in the league. Captain Oliver Ekman-Larsson leads a solid defensive core, along with emerging 21-year-old Jacob Chychrun. Chychrun is solid in all three zones and has 12 goals on the season. Think of him as a poor man's Shea Theodore.
With their speed and the strength of their goaltending duo, the Coyotes could be a dark horse with their play-in opportunity. Kuemper, Raanta, and Adin Hill all have good numbers giving the team crucial security in goal amid injuries to Kuemper and Raanta.
Overall, the team has been essentially average. If they get going and get by Nashville, which is entirely possible, they could really make some noise. They're currently a slight underdog with Vegas sports handicappers.
Arizona went 1-1-1 against Vegas this season with a shootout loss and two games unplayed.
Odds of beating Vegas:7:1
VGK Ties: Nick Cousins (now with Vegas)
10 - Minnesota Wild:
Key Players: Kevin Fiala LW, Eric Staal C, Ryan Suter D, Zach Parise LW, Matt Dumba D, Alex Galchenyuk C, Alex Stalock G
Not much comes to mind when thinking about the Minnesota Wild. They're an interesting case study, with decent peripherals and a solid power play, but mixed results.
They're made up of a core of high-end talent, but on the back half of their careers. Guys like Zach Parise, Eric Staal, Ryan Suter, and Mats Zuccarello are big names with big cap hits that still produce, but aren't getting any younger.
Goaltender Devyn Dubnyk has regressed mightily and the Wild have consequently suffered. Alex Stalock has done a fine job in his time, but the absence of a true game-stealing number one goalie is evident.
Nine different players have scored 10 or more goals on the season, giving the Wild some depth up front. Defenseman Jared Spurgeon and the recently departed Jason Zucker are two of those nine players. Zucker is a big loss for the Wild and had they known they'd be in this spot, they probably would've held on to the young forward.
Minnesota split the season series with the Golden Knights (1-1-0), with one game unplayed.
Odds of beating Vegas:15:1
VGK Ties: Drafted Alex Tuch (now with Vegas)
9 - Winnipeg Jets:
Key Players: Blake Wheeler RW, Mark Schiefele C, Patrick Laine RW, Kyle Connor LW, Connor Hellebuyck G
These two teams have a ton of history, in such a short amount of time. The Winnipeg Jets organization seems to be a big piece of the Golden Knights' history. Each season they've been part of a VGK storyline.
Year One: The Golden Knights beat the Jets to advance to the Stanley Cup Final.
Year Two: Paul Stastny leaves and signs a free agent deal with the Golden Knights.
Year Three: Center Cody Eakin traded to the Jets for a conditional fourth round pick, in a much-needed salary dump.
Regarding the conditional pick, one of the conditions to turn it into a 2021 third rounder was the Jets making the playoffs. With the ninth seed in this new format, it will be interesting to see how that plays out. Sports books are considering the Play-In round, a non-playoff round, for previously made futures bets.
Back to the Jets....These past two off-seasons they lost two solid centers in Stastny and Kevin Hayes. Both were not expected to stay, but it's big talent out the door in back-to-back seasons. They were also surprised with a Dustin Byflugien hold out, that hasn't helped matters.
Kyle Connor, who now leads the team in points, continued to grow and has the looks of a big time scorer at the NHL level. Connor's team-leading 38 goals make him one of five players to net 20-plus this season. The Shelby Township, Michigan-born former Wolverine has been asserting himself as a serious scoring threat. He's currently one of the best NCAA products in the NHL.
Providing secondary scoring are guys like Mark Schiefele (29 goals), Patrick Laine (28 goals), Nicolaj Ehlers (25 goals), and Blake Wheeler (22 goals). If the defense - and Connor Hellebuyck - holds up, the Jets have a very good chance of winning. They're just so strong up front.
The Jets went 2-0-0 on the season against the Golden Knights, winning a game in each city. One of the games went to OT and another remains unplayed.
Odds of Beating Vegas: 5:1
VGK Ties: Cody Eakin (recently traded), Paul Stastny (currently with Vegas)
8 - Calgary Flames:
Key Players:Johnny Gaudreau LW, Elias Lindholm RW, Sean Monahan C, Matthew Tkachuk RW, Mark Giordano D
How the mighty have fallen. Last season's Pacific Division Champions have had a rough go in 2019-20. Subpar play, off-ice issues, and a coaching change have plagued the Flames. It really hasn't been a fun year in Alberta, aside from the emergence of Andrew Mangiapane (18 goals).
Led in scoring by NHL legacy Matthew Tkachuk, the Flames have three 20-goal scorers and four others with at least 10. Their five-on-five scoring is generally spread out, there's just not enough of it, wrapping up the season with 133 goals, six below the league average.
Average goaltending and limited offense from the blue line have contributed to the Flames' fall. Captain Mark Giordano (5 goals, 26 assists) has been good, but has come back to Earth from his stellar 2018-19 Norris Trophy winning campaign.
In goal, Cam Talbot has had a nice bounce back season. He's been very good working in tandem with David Rittich, but neither goaltender particularly strikes fear in opposing shooters. Their numbers are good, not great, and the Flames need great.
We've seen what subpar goaltending can do to a team. Take the San Jose Sharks as a prime example. Both teams have fallen from grace and eventually went through coaching changes mid-season.
Calgary still has talented players and a recent history of success, so they can't be taken lightly. Once the playoff starts, they'll have a chance to rewrite their 2019-20 season.
The Flames went a dismal 0-3-0 on the season against the Golden Knights, allowing five-plus goals in each contest. Regardless, they remain a real threat.
Odds of Beating Vegas: 10:1
VGK Ties: N/A
7 - Vancouver Canucks:
Key Players: Elias Pettersson C, J.T. Miller C, Brock Boeser RW, Quinn Hughes D, Bo Horvat C, Jacob Markstrom G, Tyler Toffoli RW
Another former Michigan Wolverine, Quinn Hughes has been a driving force for the Canucks, in his first full NHL season. His 45 assists and 21:53 aTOI numbers are otherworldly for a rookie d-man. His 2020 All Star nomination was well earned.
He does benefit from a defense group that is heavy on experience and defensive-minded players. Alex Edler, Tyler Myers, Chris Tanev, and Troy Stecher round out a solid defensive group for Vancouver.
Due in part to Hughes and obviously the presence of the key players listed above, the Canucks power play has been special. Their units operated at a 24.15% efficiency, up significantly from their mark of 17.13% last season without Hughes and J.T. Miller.
Their power play is a legitimate threat with a plethora of skilled forwards.
At the trade deadline, the Canucks looked to add more fire power and found some in a division foe. They were able to acquire Tyler Toffoli from the Los Angeles Kings, which should help them dearly in their playoff run.
Jacob Markstrom is doing his part at the other end, providing some much needed consistency in goal (23-16-4, 2.75 GAA, .918 SV%). He's the clear number one in net, although backup Thatcher Demko, a Boston College alum, continues to grow and has valuable Team USA experience.
On the season, the Canucks went 1-1-0, with an overtime win, against the Golden Knights. Two scheduled games will remain unplayed.
Odds of Beating Vegas: 7:1
VGK Ties:
6 - Nashville Predators:
Key Players:Roman Josi D, Matt Duchene C, Filip Forsberg C, Pekka Rinne G, Juuse Saros G
In nearly a dead even starts split, Juuse Saros has clearly out performed the incumbent starter in goal, Pekka Rinne. Rinne, a former Vezina winner, has had a rough season, highlighted only by his three shutouts, one goal, and two assists.
Saros' 2.70 GAA and .914 SV% are great for a backup, but he's slowly becoming the number one in Nashville. As a starter, those numbers would be fine and there's a chance they could improve with more work. The argument could be made that the net is his when the playoffs start.
Looking through Rinne's game log, there's a trend showing that when he takes a step forward, he then takes a few steps back.
SV% in last 10 starts:
.935. .947
.903. .765
.968. .974
.867. .947
.844. .742
.889 SV%
They've clearly struggled with his fall from grace and at 37-years-old, it's not completely shocking. He's been at it since 2005, a true accomplishment after being drafted in the 8th round in 2004.
Up front the Preds have some dynamic talent in Matt Duchene, Victor Arvidsson, and Filip Forsberg. Their man strength remains the defense, so much so that they dealt PK Subban to the New Jersey Devils without batting an eye.
Captain Roman Josi leads the team in scoring and anchors one of the best defense units in the league. He's been the most consistent figure throughout the Preds season, one that brought a Peter Laviolette firing, the fourth of his Head Coaching career.
Their special teams are, for lack of a better word, bad. The Golden Knights could give their power play serious fits. Nashville has shown that they're not ready for the pressure of Reilly Smith, Mark Stone, William Karlsson, and Co.
Nashville went 1-1-1 on the season against the Golden Knights, with a home OT loss.
Odds of Beating Vegas: 15:1
VGK Ties: N/A
5 - Edmonton Oilers:
Key Players:Connor McDavid C, Leon Draisaitl C, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C, Oscar Klefbom D, Darnell Nurse D, Mikko Koskinen G
No team got shafted more by the seeding of the 24-team format than the Edmonton Oilers. They worked themselves into second place in the Pacific Division, just to be knocked below the Central Division's third place team, the Dallas Stars. Seeds being determined by point percentage, not total points, did them in.
With the consensus best player in the world in Connor McDavid and another 100-point scorer in Leon Draisaitl, the Oilers have a solid foundation set. Yet another talented center, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins gives the club the option to play McDavid and Draisaitl together at 5-on-5, with his ability to operate as a 2C.
After years of questionable trades and signings, former GM Peter Chiarelli was shown the door and the Oilers are now looking for greener pastures ahead. Their surprising jump to second place in the Pacific hints at some light at the end of that tunnel.
Although they have serious offensive threats in McDavid and Draisaitl, they're not an incredibly deep team, with Zach Kassian and James Neal providing the secondary scoring.
Edmonton wears teams down on with their special teams mastery. Their power play operates at an ungodly 29.5% while the PK comes in at a respectable 84.42%. This area of the Oilers' game could give Vegas trouble, as they're notroious for going into prolonged slumps on both the PP and PK.
A series between these two teams could come down to special teams and goaltending. Edmonton gets the nod in the former while the Golden Knights boast one of the best goalie tandems in the league.
It would be a fun series and a closely fought one, but the Golden Knights have deeper talent and the goaltending edge.
On the season, the Oilers went 1-1-1 with a loss in OT and one game unplayed against the Golden Knights.
Odds of Beating Vegas: 7:1
VGK Ties: James Neal
As you may have noticed, none of the odds suggest a Golden Knights loss. When healthy, the Golden Knights boast a very deep forward group, with solid enough defense to match an elite goaltending tandem.
A long cup run is in the cards for this team, barring injuries or a major format adjustment. Their real challenge comes in the Round Robin round which I will have more on in my next article.
Until then, come say hi on the social medias. I'm very active on Twitter, sometimes too active. Be sure to go follow, download, and subscribe!
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