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Before diving in, I wanted to say a quick “thank you”. If I’ve counted correctly, this is my 200th post since taking on the Red Wings blog. I am so grateful to Ek and company for this amazing opportunity. Even during a bizarre season, this has been a dream come true. Thanks to you, readers, for your support, insight and taking time to read. It is an honor.
Edmonton’s Albatross contracts got some of you being creative on making deals, and some just want nothing to do with taking on bad and expensive deals. What the market is showing, more and more, is that some GMs were living precariously close to the edge. While no one could plan for a pandemic, many had noticed less and less cap movement due to players dealing with escrow and smaller market gains. When those gains hit a net negative, the optimism and “sign and hope” mentality may well have internal numbers crashing down.
Lyle Richardson listed 13 teams that are up against the top of the cap with rosters that need to add players.
Mark Easson took at look at the top 5 most affected. There is an interesting mix of teams that are simply victims of their own success (Chicago) as well as teams that decided to go all in and hoped the future cap rises would cover the damage (Toronto).
Lyle Richardson has also laid out the teams that will benefit the most from the stagnant cap. As you can guess, Detroit is among the fold. 7 teams are listed (Detroit, Montreal, Ottawa, Buffalo, Los Angelos, Colorado and New Jersey) and it feels like we have the makings of an 80s movie on the stock market floor. Sellers holding up unfavorable contracts stabled to draft picks and buyers shaking their heads. The shortened post season could be one of intrigue, particularly at draft time. As a colleague recently stated, some teams never learn. For a brief summary of how we keep ending up here, travel back to New Jersey in 2013.
Back when Ilya Kovulchuk signed his “Devil for life” contract in 2013, it was a bit of an eye opener. New Jersey, when suffering some injuries, running a short bench at times. The league stepped in with the next CBA and that sort of deal was “banished”. Interestingly, the Devils are still paying recapture penalties on that deal and will be until 2025.
In the modern era, Old school GMs were supplanted by a younger, more ambitious generation. Kyle Dubas is the clear front runner for “spend and hope” in terms of putting together a team with so potent an offense that defense is of secondary importance. Dubas has a roster with 16 players and 4.5 million dollars to spend. Not an easy task to get to 22. It’s been looked at, far too many times, from two very polarized camps. Austin Matthews is a generational stud, and his development blew a window wide open to compete now. Mitch Marner is slick, creative and impressive. The eyebrows start to go up with William Nylander at 6.9 million. Still, as a winger/center that can score 30, it’s not obscene. Those pieces are strong enough to feel that your forward core has a lot going for it. Zack Hyman is at a friendly 2.25 million for another season.
And then, Tavares left the Isle. It was too much for Dubas to pass on. In fact, Tavares took less money than he could have made in San Jose. But, a 7 year 11 million dollar pact took a good forward core to 4 forwards at $40 million. You now have to build a roster of 18 players with 41 million and keep it going that route. This cap could be flat for a couple years at least.
John Tavares is a fantastic player. I like his game, and I think he’s a strong presence. Dubas didn’t bring it a bad player, he just created a sub optimal situation that gets less comfortable every year. Looking at this list, Nylander is the name that many have thought would have been moved. There is an unwritten promise that Nylander insists was made. He was told he wouldn’t be traded. At some point or another, that will be tested.
More than one source stated that Carolina desperately wanted Nylander in their organization during his holdout. Doggie Hamilton was part of a package that was offered, but wasn’t enough for Dubas to pull the trigger. That may well be the thorn in his side going forward.
So how or where could Detroit figure into this? Cap space and assets are everything. If Dubas is forced to move on from Nylander, it’s doubtful he wants to see him playing just a couple hours away. But, Detroit may be a third party in a trade that needs space for the paperwork. The same GM that turned Kyle Quincey into Vasilevski could be on track to another important piece by helping facilitate these paper only transactions.
At some point, Toronto has to address this painful situation. Of course, if they don’t make it past the qualifier the Leafs could potentially draft a first overall pick this year. That would be interesting. If not, and if the leafs have a top 15 pick, Yzerman may there to try and turn it into Askarov. Stranger things have happened.
Where do you think this will land? Is Toronto actually in danger of missing a “window” for a championship? It’s hard to believe with a team with young stars. Can Dubas turn this around and build a more stable model? What piece could fall in Yzerman’s lap?
I’d love to get Zack Hyman. Fantastic player. Nylander, I’m not sure on. If you were going to take a player, who would it be? Let me know in the comments.
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