According to hockey-reference.com, the Chicago Blackhawks have a 13.6% chance of making the 2017-18 playoffs with 29 games left in the season.
On top of that, they have the Hawks with a 0.7% probability to win the Stanley Cup. Now, anything can happen and they say "all you have to do is get into the playoffs and anything can happen", however, I'd don't have high hopes of making the playoffs for this team let alone a surprise run.
Last night was another example of a wasted game when it mattered the most. This team is just missing that extra jump and/or high-end talent.
So, if I were you, I would get comfortable with the names:
Evan Bouchard (D)
Ryan Merkley (D)
Quinn Hughes (D)
Ty Smith (D)
Oliver Wahlstrom (LW)
Jett Woo (D)
Joel Farabee (LW)
Nando Eggenberger (RW)
Ryan McLeod (C)
Jonathan Tychonick (D)
Those are the expected picks #6-15 on www.draftsite.com (courtesy of Bill "The Wiz" Placzek).
I know everyone is looking at that Tkachuk kid, but he looks like a consensus top 5 pick, and unless the Hawks really go on a nosedive, I see them more realistically picking closer to 10-15th overall.
Looking at the Hawks roster now and for the future, if I had my way, I would love for the Hawks to slide as close to the top of the draft as possible to grab a defenceman.
The average age of the top 10 rookie defencemen in the NHL this year is 21.3. We cite the Ian Mitchell's, Lucas Carlsson's and Krys' of the Hawks D pipeline as being longer-term projects and they are. Those guys may see the ice in the NHL (if they are lucky) in 2-3 years, which would be 3-4 years since they were drafted by the organization in the 2nd, 4th and 2nd round respectively.
Henri Jokiharju, the Hawks 1st rounder last year was the highest dman taken since Dylan Olsen in 2009 (and we know how that turned out). Both were high 1st round picks.
Jokiharju's stock since the WJHC has risen and it sounds like the Hawks will look to get him signed to an entry-level contract. I would say he's still 1-2 years away. I nice pick at 29th overall.
Obviously the higher you take a player, the better percentage of higher potential and a quicker path to the NHL (not always, but tends to be the trend). That's why I'm excited that the Hawks could potentially get a high(er) 1st round defender like Ty Smith or Quinn Hughes who could conceivably be a difference maker for the Hawks in 2 years.
Sure, they could turn out to be Cam Barker or need more than 2 years, but they also could turn out like Mikhail Sergachev (9th overall in 2016), Charlie McAvoy (14th overall in '16) or Jacob Chychrun (16th overall in '16).
We know Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook aren't getting any younger and it's super difficult to acquire a top 4 dman, so getting some help ASAP would be the start of my foundation.
But hey, I'm not Stan Bowman and this season isn't over yet. Let's see how this team reacts on Thursday to the streaking Dallas Stars.
See ya out there!
JL
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Chicago Blackhawks Blogger • 
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