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Predicting Blackhawks Goals - Forwards |
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If the Hawks have any hope in improving from last year's 76-point season and make the playoffs next spring they will have to score more goals than their opponents on most night.
This obvious statement leads us to the fun prediction of how many goals the Blackhawks will score (by player). This blog is dedicated to the forwards. Then, part 2 (later this week) will be focused on the how many times the defence will find the back of the twine.
Let's take a look at how the Hawks have fared the last few years as a team, as well as dig into some trends of specific players.
Last year, Chicago saw the red light go off 228 times for a good goal (21st in the league). The league average was 244. Not good enough.
There were a few outliers that were below that mark and still made the playoffs like – Columbus (242), LA (239) and Anaheim (235), but as you can imagine, those teams were extremely efficient at keeping the puck out of the net as well. The Hawks were not.
With the uncertainty in net and on the backend, the Blackhawks will need to be more in the 260-270 Goals For (GF) range to head back to the post-season. Is it possible? We will see below.
In 2015-16, the Hawks had 234 GF, which was only 6 goals more than what they had last year but was surprisingly still good for 6th in the entire NHL.
They were a little better last year with 240 goals for which was good for 9th in the entire league.
The GF Average has been on the rise for the last 3 years going from 2.71 (15-16) to 2.77 (16-17) and shooting up to 2.97 (17-18).
So, when looking at the above, the Hawks did drop 10(ish) goals per year last season in comparison when looking at '15-16 and '16-17 seasons, but with the league average shooting up 7%, the Hawks picked a bad year to not keep up with the pack.
Before we get into the juicy predictions, let's look at where the 228 goals came from last year:
Alex Debrincat – 28
Patrick Kane – 27
Nick Schmaltz – 21
Jonathan Toews – 20
Artem Anisimov – 20
Brandon Saad – 18
Patrick Sharp – 10
Ryan Hartman – 8
Brent Seabrook – 7
Vinnie Hinostroza – 7
Tommy Wingels – 7
Jan Rutta – 6
Richard Panik – 6
Tomas Jurco – 6
Erik Gustafsson – 5
Jordan Oesterle – 5
John Hayden – 4
David Kampf – 4
Gustav Forsling – 3
Lance Bouma – 3
Duncan Keith – 2
Connor Murphy – 2
Anthony Duclair – 2
Matthew Highmore – 2
Cody Franson – 1
Michal Kempny – 1
Tanner Kero – 1
Blake Hillman – 1
Andreas Martinsen – 1
TOTAL = 228 goals / (195 by Forwards and 33 by Defence)
We are only looking at the forwards right now, so it looks like 86% of goals came from someone playing LW, C or RW.
How does that stack up to their last 2 years?
* 2016-17 = 240 goals / (210 by Forwards and 30 by Defence) – 88% of production from F.
* 2015-16 = 234 goals / (203 by Forwards and 31 by Defence) – 87% of production from F.
Soooo, if you're following along, hitting that 260-270 range is not looking too good right now considering where the Hawks have been trending, plus the lack of scoring punch added this offseason.
The Hawks have been very consistent in their goal distribution from forwards and defence. The main thing to point out would be the minor drop in goals up front over the years but when you lose guys like Artemi Panarin and Marian Hossa, it was going to be a challenge.
To break down the predictions are loosely based on the current projected roster and which players could see some spot duty from Rockford. This is all, obviously, subject to change:
Patrick Kane – 35
Brandon Saad – 29
Nick Schmaltz – 27
Alex Debrincat – 25
Jonathan Toews – 24
Artem Anisimov – 18
Dylan Sikura – 13
John Hayden – 9
Chris Kunitz – 7
Domnik Kahun – 6
Victor Ejdsell – 4
Matthew Highmore – 3
Andreas Martinsen – 3
Marcus Kruger – 2
David Kampf – 2
Luke Johnson – 2
Alex Fortin – 1
Jacob Nilsson – 1
Jordan Schroeder – 1
FORWARD GOALS = 212
There you have it. Please keep in mind that injuries do happen, as do trades and signings during the season.
Here are some notes on how I got to the 212 from the forward group, which is 9% higher than last year's forward core. One would have to believe that there is room for this kind of growth, especially with the youthfulness of guys in the #2, #3, #4 spot in my predictions.
Also, I would have to think with how last year went, there will need to be some tweaks to the system and the Hawks may have to outscore teams on some nights to get a win. Let's see if Coach Q cranks up that offence and the players can gain some nice chemistry early on.
When the Hawks last had a truly dominant line, it was compiled of Kane, Panarin and Anisimov in 2016-17. Combined they scored 87 goals.
In the prediction above, I have Saad-Schmaltz-Kane as a line for most of the year (scoring 91 goals), basing that off of Joel Quenneville's comments at the convention of that being a possible trio.
Coach Q usually doesn't just toss that out without having put a lot of thought into it. We know that the blender can come out at any time and Saad will most likely end back with Toews, but I will go with that for now.
Saad had some bad puck-luck last year and his jump from 18 to 29 may look crazy, but he is still young and has obvious skill. He had 24 goals in his last year in Columbus and 31 in his first season there after being traded from Chicago – an average of 27.5.
Still aren't convinced? Well, further to that, his shooting % was 7.6% last year and in his last 2 years in Columbus 12.4%. That would have put him at 29 goals if he kept that pace up last year on his 237 shots.
Nick Schmaltz is in a contract year and has been getting better every year. Leave him with Saad and Kane for most of the year and watch him soar. I have him at 27 tallies after 21 last year. Not out of the question.
Alex Debrincat has battled his entire career as an underdog due to his size. He had an incredible rookie year last season leading the Hawks in goals with 28. I have him producing well again but with a slight decrease to 25.
Toews increases by 4 goals from last season which doesn't look huge, but I think he gets closer to 65 points if he's pairing with a Debrincat and/or Sikura.
Speaking of Dylan Sikura, I have him at a respectable 13 goals in his rookie year. When you look at this projected Hawks roster, you know he will have a lot of ice time made available to him if he plays as expected.
From there, you have some depth coming through in the bottom 6 with 50-60 goals with guys like Hayden and Kunitz mustard-ing some goals in the back of the net. This is very reachable as well as by my count the Hawks got 55 goals last year from players primarily in the bottom 6 last year.
I could have broken this down even further by line, special teams, etc. but let's be honest, this is a guesstimate at best and I still believe there could be a couple of changes before the roster is set in October.
Check in mid-week to see how many goals I have awarded to the Hawks defence.
See ya out there!
JL
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Chicago Blackhawks Blogger • 
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