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Kevin: Five reasons why NY will beat the 'Bolts and five why they won't |
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The Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New York Rangers series has been everything we hoped it would be. The best-of-seven Eastern Conference Final is 2-2 heading into Game 5 Thursday at New York's Madison Square Garden.
Lead-changes. Come-from-behind-wins. Stellar goaltending. Momentum swings. We've seen it all in this series.
Now it's a best-of-three series. You're lying if you say you know who's going to win.
Here's a capsule look at why both the Rangers and Lightning can win this series:
Five reasons why the Lightning will prevail in the Eastern Conference Final
1. Over the last 21 months, the Lightning have won 10 playoff series, 42 playoff games and two Stanley Cups. They know a little something about winning in the postseason. Some of these guys like Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman, etc. have the equivalent of PhD in winning.
2. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has won 63.4% of his 93 career playoff decisions. He boasts a career postseason save percentage of .924. He has posted a save percentage of .933 or better in seven of his past nine playoff starts. Since Game 7 of the Toronto series, Vasilevskiy's playoff series is .947.
3. Even though the Tampa Bay Lightning supposedly lost a fair amount of depth because of salary cap issues, Ross Colton, Nick Paul, Pat Maroon, Brandon Hagel and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare have combined for six game-winning goals.
4. Veteran Ondrej Palat has been as productive as Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov. Those three players have scored seven goals in these playoffs. And now Brayden Point may return from injury in Game 5.
5. Tampa Bay's defense is always tighter than you think it is. Even when you get shots on goal against Tampa Bay, they are usually from the perimeter. In these playoffs, the Lightning are giving up an average of only 8.1 high danger scoring chances per game. By contrast, the Rangers are giving up an average of 14.9 high danger chances per game.
Five reasons why the Rangers will prevail in the Eastern Conference Final
1. Rangers' Igor Shesterkin has been the NHL's best goalie this season. He's played 13 consecutive playoff games with a save percentage of .900 or better. His postseason save percentage is .929.
2. Centers Ryan Strome and Filip Chytil could both play Game 5. They will be game-time decisions. Strome missed Game 4 because of an undisclosed injury and Chytil was injured during Game 4.
3. The Rangers have won eight consecutive games at home. They have averaged 4.38 goals per game in those triumphs. They feed off Madison Square Garden's energy. MSG has been an intimidating venue for opposing teams in these playoffs.
4. New York leads the postseason with a 32.1% power play percentage. The Rangers can punish teams for taking penalties. They will be looking to coax the Lightning into taking penalties. They win a battle of dueling power plays. The Lightning's PP percentage is 23.7%
5. Adam Fox is a difference-maker of the highest order. Everyone is talking about Colorado's Cale Makar, but Fox is helping the Rangers as much as Makar is helping Colorado. Fox leads the Rangers in scoring with 23 points. He's the highest-scoring D Man in the postseason.
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