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The Buffalo Sabres are in for a very long off season but the planning for 2020-21 should begin right away and while I’ve explored different options regarding the entry draft, I haven’t talked much about free agency.
In general, silly season lives up to its name. Every year more than a handful of teams get caught giving out contracts that are at best bad value relative to the wins they add and at worst, they pay for players who take wins away from them. The Sabres find themselves in a bit of an awkward bind because while they can ill afford to hand out another cap crippling deal in free agency, they aren’t exactly flush with trade assets either. If Jason Botterill and company want to ice a competitive team next year, they may have to take a risk on a free agent or two.
Over the next few blogs I’ll be looking into some of the higher profile pending unrestricted free agents to see if any of them make sense for the Sabres moving forward. First up is Mikael Granlund.
Key:
CF/CA: shot attempts for/against
XGF/XGA: expected goals for/against
/60: per 60 minutes
Rel Tm: stat relative to teammates
OZS: offensive zone starts
NZS: neutral zone starts
DZS: defensive zone starts
All numbers at 5v5 from naturalstattrick.com
2019-2020 Stats:
Position: Winger
Previous Cap Hit: 5.75 million
5v5 TOI/GP: 13:47
Possession stats:
CF/60%: 61.25
Rel Tm: 2.66
CA/60%: 56.41
Rel Tm: -1.28
Expected Goals Stats:
XGF/60%:2.41
Rel Tm: 0.11
XGA/60%: 2.19
Rel Tm: -0.1
Usage:
OZS/60: 21.06
NZS/60: 16.71
DZS/60: 16.57
A quick glance makes this seem like a slam dunk in terms of the Sabres getting involved. Granlund has excellent possession stats and pretty solid expected goals numbers. He’s also just 28 years old, putting him on the younger side of unrestricted free agents. So, what’s the catch? Well, besides all the usual stuff about how his best days may be behind and a bidding war may push a team to pay way above market value, Granlund put these numbers up as a winger.
This isn’t a problem in it of itself as the Sabres could use another winger who can put up these kinds of numbers, but with so much uncertainty surrounding the salary cap, any long term contract the Sabres hand out to someone that isn’t a centre makes it that much more difficult to address the situation down the middle. As has been pointed out by many analysts and writers, the Sabres cap flexibility is temporary, with major pay days due for key players like Sam Reinhart, Henri Jokiharju and Rasmus Dahlin over the next two off seasons.
Having said that, Granlund’s point totals don’t jump off the page (30 points in 63 games) so there’s a very real possibility that a team like the Sabres could get a deal done near or at market value, which in free agency is a nice win for any team.
We know Granlund can provide value at 5v5 but how about the special teams? The Sabres had at best a frustrating power play, and the penalty kill as among the worst in the league. An improvement in either would go a long way in helping the Sabres see post season hockey next year.
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(hockeyviz.com)
Granlund adds quite a bit of value on the power play as the Predators put up an elite power play when he was on any given unit. That value doesn’t extend to the penalty kill however, as he saw just 49 minutes on it and was not good at all.
Scheme Fit:
You’ll notice from his possession numbers that Granlund excelled playing high event hockey. Whatever he gave up in terms of shot attempts he sent right back to the opposition and then some. It’s also important to note that while he was on the ice for more than a few attempts against, based on his expected goals against these tended to be low quality chances more often than not.
If the Sabres want to continue using their low event scheme next season, then Granlund may not be the best fit. This is a player that seems to do his best work when there’s a lot going on, and with below average shooting talent (8.1% below average according to moneypuck.com) it’s unlikely he’d be able to generate many goals for the team in this set up.
Should the wish to change their scheme to something more offensive, then Granlund could be a very good fit on the right-wing side. With Dylan Cozens expected to make the jump to the NHL next year, Granlund could be perfect winger to help open things up for the rookie centre.
Contract Numbers:
Granlund is still a few years away from 30 so even if his best years are behind him the signing team will probably be able to get solid value in the front half of the deal. In searching through capfriendly’s contract comparables tool, I found that the closest match was Kyle Okposo, who put up similar career point totals and hit free agency at the same age as Granlund would.
This isn’t to say that Granlund is due for a max length free agent contract, Okposo was coming off one of his best seasons when inked his 7-year deal with the Sabres. Point totals tend to be the centre of contract negotiations and Granlund’s modest total takes a lot of his leverage away, unfairly I might add.
As a general rule, it’s bad business to hand out very long-term deals to players you don’t consider part of your core and while Granlund put up impressive numbers, there isn’t enough there to say that he can take on the same role that players like Jack Eichel or Sam Reinhart do. The Sabres should absolutely make a competitive offer but set a hard limit on the term at 4 years. For every additional year they offer they’re taking on way more risk relative to the reward. The AAV is harder to pinpoint but at a 3 or 4 year deal I wouldn’t go any higher than 5 million. It’s all about buying wins and the number of wins added you get from Granlund will likely diminish year to year. An offer any higher than 5 million assuming a flat cap would make the downside steeper than the upside, and the Sabres really can’t afford another contract like that.
Verdict:
Pursue at a short or mid term contract length and a cap hit not exceeding 5 million.
Thanks for reading!
Buffalo Sabres Blogger • 
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