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This is the first of a two-part series looking at the Sabres prospect pool with Kris Baker of sabresprospects.com.
After chatting about the Sabres prospect pool with Kris Baker of sabresprospects.com, one is left with the sense that the organization has come a long way in the last three years but that there is also still plenty of work to do.
Right now there's a symmetrical dividing line between the Tim Murray regime and that of present general manager Jason Botterill as each was in charge of three NHL Drafts. The difference between Murray's picks from 4-6 years ago and Botterill's from the last three years can't be fully compared as not enough time has elapsed for the players selected to reach their ultimate hockey potential, but what we do know is that Botterill took over as general manager with a thin prospect pool and that he pretty much had to rebuild a rebuild.
"It took some time to reset some things when Botterill came in," said Baker via a phone interview yesterday. "The previous regime didn't really draft and develop all that well. Murray's group had a couple of guys out of [those drafts] but you're not really gonna screw up when you're picking at the top of the draft with players like [Sam] Reinhart and [Jack] Eichel. They go through the prospect ranks fairly quickly. When that happens you don't have a lot of depth behind them."
That said, it should be pointed out that Murray's three draft years weren't completely devoid of talent. Behind Reinhart and Eichel, who were picked second-overall in consecutive years (2014 and 2015, respectively,) winger Victor Olofsson (2014) is contributing at the NHL-level with defenseman Will Borgen (2015) and center Rasmus Asplund (2016) on the cusp of making the big club. Some of Murray's picks were used in trades by Botterill for quality players. Cliff Pu was part of the deal for Jeff Skinner and Brendan Guhle was part of the trade for Brandon Montour. However, due to the draconian teardown during the tank years and the lag-time between the draft and a potential pro debut, there wasn't nearly enough organizational depth to ice competitive teams at either the NHL or AHL levels the last few years.
When first coming on board in 2017, Botterill embarked on a plan to rebuild their AHL affiliate, the Rochester Americans, and replenish the farm system. He did so with some crafty free agent acquisitions for both clubs and used whatever prospects the previous regime's left him to get his plan rolling. It wasn't easy and it's taken some time, but the fruits of Botterill's work is starting to really emerge on the blueline which has been a focal point for the club since he took over.
Up with the big club we're starting to see a logjam of quality NHL defensemen with a good chunk of that group coming in via trades by Botterill this year. He really bolstered his NHL blueline when he picked up Montour, Colin Miller and Henri Jokiharju, acquired for Murray-pick, Alexander Nylander. Previous acquisitions by Botterill include defensemen Zach Bogosian and Marco Scandella who are still with the club as is 2018 first-overall draft pick, Rasmus Dahlin. That blueline depth has reached down to Rochester where Borgen and first-year pros like Casey Fitzgerald and Jacob Bryson are surrounded by quality veteran defensemen. We see that on a daily basis while following the Sabres and Amerks but what's percolating on the blueline beneath the surface is what has Baker pretty excited.
"They've come a long way in building up their defensive depth in the last two or three drafts," said Baker who's been writing about "The Future of the Blue and Gold" at sabresprospects.com for over a decade. "If you look at their prospects depth chart right now, I've never seen this many quality defensemen in the prospect ranks."
That focus on d-men was reflected in the Botterill using eight of their 18 draft picks on defensemen over the past three years as compared to nine of 25 picks by the previous regime in a three-year span. In addition to the quantity the Sabres also selected an array of d-men with varying styles and skill-sets.
"They're all different," said Baker. "You have your skating, mobile defensemen (which includes Jokiharju) like a Ryan Johnson, a Lawrence Pilut, [Oskari] Laaksonen to a certain extent and Bryson. You kind of put them in that bucket." However, he pointed out that they do have a mix of some traditional defensive defensemen, whom he said "can all skate and add offense." Baker rattled off a few of those type players like [William] Worge Kreu, a defensive defenseman who needs to grow into his body more and is looking like a late-bloomer and [Linus] Cronholm who adds "toughness and hard-hitting." We've seen what Borgen can do at the AHL-level with his skating and toughness in a defensive-defenseman role and there's Mattias Samuelsson, whom Baker describes as "big, has that understated mean-streak to him and is just very territorial."
"There's a good mix of styles on the blueline," he continued, "and I think it's going to lend to the development of the defensive core as a whole. These guys are all mobile now and they can all make good core plays, just good passing. They understand the game."
Of course the overwhelming majority of drafted players never make it to the NHL and anything said about players this early in their journey is based upon where they are on their development curve in relation to their potential. We've seen a range of players from sleepers to those who were over-hyped then disappointed and Baker is keen to the latter as their could be any number of reasons why their train was derailed.
He uses Laaksonen as an example saying that his style of play has a lot of people talking about him because the defenseman is "fun to watch." However, Baker believes right now he looks as if he'll get passed up on the depth chart. "We need to downshift the hype-train on Laaksonen a little," he said. "I'm not saying that he's not going to pan out or anything like that but I think that, if you can't play defense consistently and put in the effort...he's got a lot of work to do defensively."
The cool part about a prospect like Laaksonen playing in Europe, or a Worge Kreu or Cronholm, is that the Sabres can let them get further into their development before making a decision on whether they should be signed. A team holds their rights for four years which allowed a player like Olofsson (7th round) and Sabres goalie Linus Ullmark (6th round) as much time to develop as needed with the least amount of pressure. Baker uses that same thought process while talking about d-prospect Miska Kukkonen.
Kukkonen was taken in the fifth round of the 2018 draft and spent much of last year bouncing between teams and leagues. He was highly touted as a 15 and 16 yr. old and had some injury concerns, according to Baker, but now that it's all that behind him, "he can get more reps, more quality reps and consistently see the ice."
"[Kukkonen] plays middle-pair minutes but he's not getting sheltered minutes," said Baker. "He's a right shot, good skater, just really good defensive posture and positioning, uses his stick very well." Baker sees similarities between Kukkonen and present Sabres defenseman John Gilmour although he's quick to point out that he's not the skater Gilmour is.
"If fans watched John Gilmour in the past couple of games before he sat out," he said, "he's a guy who's all about using his feet to get his body into position, uses his stick really well to force the play out of the slot area and I see Kukkonen doing that really well. He just understands defensive positioning, gap-control and angles."
Most in Sabreland are keen to what's been happening on the blueline since Botterill took over, and after talking with Baker, the back-end is setting up nicely for some years to come. What's painfully obvious right now is that more top-end players are needed on the wings and they need more quality depth throughout the lineup.
Ideally some of that would be coming up through the system right now. Although a player like Asplund, or 2019 first round draft pick old Dylan Cozens should be in the mix come next season it's still not quite enough. Barring a trade or free agent signing next summer, filling the forward ranks with homegrown talent may take a little while and we'll dive into that, as well as their thin goaltending pipeline, in the next installment.
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