Against all odds, the Ottawa Senators earned their first victory of the 2019-20 campaign this afternoon with a 4-2 victory over the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Senators took advantage of a lethargic Lightning team that didn’t appear to have any gas or will left in the tank, which has to be concerning for Tampa fans given that their team is only about a week into the season.
Here are today’s thumbs, with far more positives than negatives:
Thumbs Up: Winning!
Nobody expects to the Senators to see many ticks in the “W” column this year, so to earn their first victory against a team many picked to be the Stanley Cup champion has to feel good. The Senators were full value for this win, and outplayed the Lightning in a fairly convincing manner for most of the afternoon. If you asked a non-hockey fan which team looked like the contender, he or she probably would have picked the team in red.
In addition to the two points in the standings, the win also marks head coach DJ Smith’s first career National Hockey League victory. All in all, it was a good afternoon for the Senators.
Thumbs Up: Craig Anderson’s Bounce Back
After a couple rough outings to start the year, Craig Anderson rebounded today with a solid performance to lead the Senators to victory. He wasn’t tested very much, facing only 21 Lightning shots, but he was there when his team needed him and kept the opponent to two goals. On most nights in the NHL these days, that’s enough to get the job done.
Thumbs Up: Namestnikov’s Revenge
When the Lightning dealt Vladislav Namestnikov to the New York Rangers, he was forced out of a prime spot on one of the league’s best lines to go join a rebuilding team. Now with Ottawa, Namestnikov got a chance to return the “favor” by absolutely dominating against his former squad. We’re not just talking about a regular ol’ solid performance here; we are talking about one of the better performances you’ll see from any player in any game this year. Here are some of the highlights, courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and NHL.com:
- Three points (2G, 1A)
- 5-on-5 shot attempt share of ~68%
- 5-on-5 expected goal share of 89% (!!!)
That right there is the definition of a player making his mark after being acquired by a new team. Pierre Dorion couldn't have asked for anything more when he pulled the trigger on that trade.
Thumbs Up: Pageau Taking One for the Team
There are different ways to help your team win in today’s game. There’s scoring goals, there’s tallying assists, there’s tiring out the opponent with extended shifts in the offensive zone, and then there’s taking strategy to a whole new level:
Brayden Point isn’t a player known for dropping the gloves with any measure of regularity, so when he and JG Pageau scrapped in the second period it was a bit of a surprise. But, as Pageau noted in the quote above, the opportunity to take one of the game’s most lethal offensive threats out of action for five minutes was too good to pass up. Pageau, for his part, was rewarded with a Gordie Howe hat trick in return. You can bet that this is a performance he’ll remember for a long time.
Thumbs Down: Abramov’s Struggles
Coming off the high of scoring his first career goal the other night, Abramov really struggled this afternoon. His expected goal share and shot attempt share at even strength were both abysmal, and he looked overmatched in his *very* limited ice time. While the potential for him to be an everyday player is certainly there, it doesn’t appear that the coaching staff is quite ready to trust him in that sort of role.
This puts the Senators in a bit of a tough spot. The
three minutes of ice time he received today isn’t the best case scenario for either the team or the player, which would suggest that there’s merit in the idea of sending him back to Belleville. However, that suggestion comes with challenges of its own; there just isn’t much room left on the farm:
As discussed previously in this space, the issue for Ottawa is figuring out how to maximize the potential of its young players at all levels without creating unfavorable development conditions on either the NHL or AHL roster. This is certainly a storyline to watch in the coming days, weeks, and months until the trade deadline.
Thumbs Up: The Borowiecki-DeMelo Pairing
This duo continues to impress together. They controlled 76% of the 5v5 shot attempt share when on the ice, and had a 5v5 expected goal share of nearly 87% according to Natural Stat Trick. Regardless of what’s going on with the Chabot or Brannstrom pairings, DJ Smith has an option in his back pocket that is almost guaranteed to settle things down. It’s hard to ask for much more from a third pairing, and perhaps speaks once again to the need to find a way for DeMelo to get some minutes up the lineup.
*puts on Lightning fan hat*
Thumbs Down: The Lightning’s Game Plan
I mentioned in the preview blog that everybody knows how to stifle Jon Cooper’s Lightning: Clog the neutral zone, and the Bolts will suffocate without putting up a fight. That’s sort of what we saw this afternoon, and to a larger extent what we’ve seen from the Lightning too many times in moments that matter over the last few seasons. The issue really puts emphasis on itself in playoff series, when opposing coaches have an opportunity to exploit the system over and over again in short period of time.
The bottom line: Cooper is now the NHL’s longest tenured coach – if he wants to keep that streak going, he’s going to have to learn how to make adjustments so that games like this, and the one against Carolina earlier in the week, don’t happen. Having seen this movie more times that I care to count, I’m not particularly optimistic that things will change. The fan base is frustrated, and the “it’s only five games” argument is ringing hollow now that we’re into the coach’s seventh year behind the bench without a title. While nobody is suggesting that he’s a bad coach, I do think there’s growing sympathy toward the idea that all coaches have a shelf life. Nobody remembers the great regular season teams, and to date that’s all Jon Cooper’s Lightning have been.
--
The Senators are back in action on Thanksgiving Monday for an afternoon game against the Minnesota Wild. I’ll have a preview up for that one tomorrow night.
As always, thanks for reading.
Michael Stuart was the Tampa Bay Lightning writer for HockeyBuzz from 2012 to 2015, and has been the Ottawa Senators writer since September 2019. Visit his archive to read more or follow him on Twitter. 
Ottawa Senators Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»