This is part one of what will be a seven part series over the summer deep diving into the prospects selected by the Blue Jackets at the 2017 draft. This is an opportunity to see what the Blue Jackets have in these players, and what we can expect from them moving forward. We start in the seventh round with defencemen Robbie Stucker.
The Jackets made some interesting picks at draft, going
unconventional with their selections and Stucker was no exception. He’s a defencmen from St. Paul Minnesota and spent the past season playing High School hockey for St. Thomas Academy.
Right away we can see why this is an unconventional pick. High school players are very risky because of the competition they face. There are so many teams and players, that it waters down the competition level. Players can look really good and put up big numbers against weaker opponents and can fool people into thinking they are better than they are.
From 2005-2012 there were 53 defencemen picked out of US high schools. Of those 53 just 16 went on to play at least one game in the NHL, and just eight have played more than 100. The odds are already stacked against Stucker and to make things even worse, not one of those 16 defencemen were picked in the sixth or seventh round. The majority were picked in the first two rounds just six were picked outside of the top 60.
To see if Stucker can beat the odds, we need to compare his performance this season to those picked prior and see if any trends emerge between the successful and non-successful picks.
The first thing Stucker has going for him is that he played in Minnesota. Minnesota is widely considered to have the best high school league and most players are drafted from that State. The second thing going for him is he put up some impressive offensive totals. Now these have to be taken with a grain of salt due to the aforementioned competition levels, but Stucker’s season was very good.
Stucker put up 40 points in 25 games this season, good for a 1.6 point per game rate. Of the 16 players to make the NHL only four of them could match or exceed that. His numbers put him well above the average of what the successful group did.
Stats courtesy of
Elite Prospects.
*The sample does not add up to 53 as four players had to be removed as they did not have stats for their draft seasons*
In terms of comparable players, Stucker’s size and scoring rates are close to Matt Niskanen (6’0, 2.24ppg), Jake Gardiner (6’2, 2.0ppg) and Keith Yandle (6’1, 1.60ppg) from the successful group. From the unsuccessful group you’re looking at a couple former Jacket prospects in Will Weber (6’4, 1.52ppg) and Thomas Larkin (6’5, 1.49ppg). This represents the range of outcomes and the volatility of high school prospects. Even the players who ended up not making the NHL, still averaged over a point per game in their draft seasons. What separated the successful from unsuccessful was the successful group was able to maintain their offensive totals as moved up the latter and into the NCAA.
This is the next big test for Stucker. He is finished high school and will stay in Minnesota for another year and play for the Minnesota Magicians in the NAHL. He will then make the jump to Colorado College and the NCAA. To see if he can maintain his offensive abilities we turn to his scouting report, courtesy of the Black Book.
Stucker is a “very raw prospect” whose “game has seen some growth from last year.” He has some offensive skill and is a good passer. He has good vision on the ice, which he uses to “stretch the ice and find guys in the neutral zone.” These are good traits to build upon, but the issue is that HB doesn’t see anything in his offensive side of the game. They are quoted as saying “nothing in his offensive game jumps out at you.” That doesn’t bode well for Stucker as he moves beyond the high school game.
All things considered a player like Robbie Stucker was a good risk to take in the seventh round. He has a big frame and has some tools that are intriguing. He had a very good season in high school and his stats compare favourably to some of the best to come out of high school in recent seasons. If he can continue to grow his offensive game in the NAHL and the NCAA, he will find himself on the prospect radar. For a late round draft pick, you can’t ask for much more.
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