The trade deadline is a few days from now. It is set for 3PM on this Friday afternoon. The Penguins will be sellers mostly, but could be buyers in certain scenarios. They currently own the most 1st-3rd round draft picks in the NHL the next three seasons with 15. They have some draft capital for the first time in a long time.
One of their buying scenarios would be using some of this draft capital to acquire an RFA aged player or younger. They won’t be looking for short term fixes or older players. This would be a trade to get a younger player under team control that has some promise.
The Penguins have some rostered players who are more likely to be on the move than not. Here is some of the scuttlebutt leading into the next few days
Veterans such as Matt Grzelcyk, Anthony Beauvillier and Noel Acciari are available. It would be a surprise if at least one of them isn’t moved.
They’re also more than willing to unload a bad contract as part of a more complex trade. Think Tristan Jarry or Ryan Graves.
There is no indication that the Penguins have asked Bryan Rust or Kris Letang to waive their no-movement clauses. Rust’s expires in July.
Don’t be shocked if the Penguins make their biggest splash a day or two before Friday’s deadline. The reason is simple and logistical. Only seven hours after the deadline expires, the Penguins play the Golden Knights in Vegas. They don’t want to find themselves in a position where they have fewer than 20 players capable of dressing. If they make several deals on deadline day, that could happen. It’s not easy to swiftly get players to a location three time zones away.
Here are my thoughts on some of the Penguins players heading into this week’s deadline:
Rickard Rakell
One of the top wingers on the market and there is an opportunity for Kyle Dubas to get a nice return here if he wants. Getting a first round pick for Marcus Pettersson was a good piece of business for Dubas and that seems like the absolute floor, here. I wouldn’t trade Rakell just to trade him. Other teams would have to either start with a first round pick and add from there. The quality of prospect is on a sliding scale. You aren’t going to get a top prospect and a first round pick for Rakell, just look at the Guentzel trade last year. The prospect quality should go up in the trade if the draft pick value lowers.
I would be looking to move Rakell despite liking him as a player. The fact is he is 31 years old with three more years on his contract. He is having a very good shooting percentage year. Perceived value is higher than it was. I don’t think you’ll have another opportunity to get this kind of value for the player. See what other teams are willing to offer and assess from there.
From Josh:
Rickard Rakell is available for a steep price. Dubas doesn’t feel any particular pressure to ship him away, but he also knows that Rakell is one of the most gifted forwards on the market. Given how eager buyers are to add talent, the Penguins are waiting to see how much Rakell could fetch them in the final days before the deadline when offers typically escalate.
Some Western Conference teams have already expressed interest in Rakell.
Erik Karlsson
His performance in the Four Nations tournament showed he can still play at a high level. He ended the round robin with the highest game score among skaters. I think he is still a very good player in a non-conducive situation to extract his value. I do think part of that is coaching. I also think some of it is the motivation of the player on a night to night basis. I really refrain from the effort based criticism over the years I’ve done this, but I think given the Penguins standings situation there are times where Karlsson will go through the motions. I think that would change on a legit contending team and we saw that in the recent international play.
I think an in-season trade is unlikely, but not impossible. This summer will be the most likely time we would see a Karlsson trade, if we do at all. The interesting variable at play is when Karlsson’s signing bonus would be paid out. Karlsson is owed 16.5M in actual cash the next two seasons. While his cap hit would remain the same the amount of actual money a team will have to pay him can differ based on when a trade is. If the Penguins pay him his 5M signing bonus on July 1st then the team trading for Karlsson would only have to pay him 11.5M in actual money the final two years of his deal. You might get some owners’ attention with this detail.
At the end of the day Karlsson holds all the cards in this scenario. He has a full no move clause. He is basically picking his destination, a destination that will need cap space, which is why the offseason makes sense.
Michael Bunting
I would definitely trade Bunting, who has one more year on his deal with an 4.5M AAV. He has been a little bit of a power play merchant this season with nine of his 14 goals coming on the power play. His 5v5 offensive production is around 1.0 points per 60 which is just not good enough given his usage and cap hit. You might get lucky with somebody looking to get some power play goals.
Anthony Beauvillier
You signed him to a one-year deal and he’s been playing with both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin lately. This is a classic pending free agent trade situation. He’s on pace for 17 goals this year which is one shy of his career high. The return won’t be significant, but you should be looking to add to that draft pick pile and this is an easy way to do so.
Noel Acciari
Please. I really disliked this signing from the get go. An offensively challenged forward making more than the league minimum to play 4th line and PK minutes. There is zero need to spend a dime over minimum if this is the player type you are looking for. The signing was very misguided and ate up cap space at a time where it was scarce asset for the Penguins. Even with the cap no longer an issue for the Penguins I would like to see them move out the offensively inept forwards. Even the PK work was overrated
Tristan Jarry/Ryan Graves
I mean, yeah. Since the team isn’t in a competing mode and they don’t have the cap issues they’ve had for like the last 15 years you can be patient here. There’s no need to feel pressured and pay off other teams to get rid of these contracts at this deadline. Have your ears open and if you want to get clever with a trade that is fine. Otherwise, you’re stuck with the bad contracts you handed out. These two players closed the door on the Penguins competing window because Dubas wasted the valuable cap space that was created. He also locked in atrocious goaltending that held the team back from legitimately competing. If you want to point to Dubas’ shortcomings you could start right here.
Matt Grzcelyk
He’s having a career year at age 31. He’s a pending UFA. There is a giant florescent sign above him flashing, Trade Him. I think he has done a really nice job running the power play that you thought Erik Karlsson and/or Kris Letang would have been running. The fact is Grzcelyk runs a better power play and the team is back to ~25% on the year. Close to a 10% jump from the previous year. Grzcelyk’s career high ten power play points have really helped with the improvement. When you look at the past trade deadlines and what some of these defensemen rentals go for it makes it an obvious situation where Dubas has to sell here. The entire point of signing one-year contracts on a non-competing team is to move those contracts at the deadline.
I believe the acquisitions of Joseph, Kolyachonok, and Desharnais were proactive in the case they needed NHL bodies after moving any potential defensemen out.
Kevin Hayes
He might not be worth his cap hit, but he’s been fine. He is on a 30 point pace and has only one more year left on his deal. I don’t find it likely he will be moved. I don’t think it is impossible. He’s a good veteran in the locker room and still competent on the ice.
Alex Nedeljkovic
I would keep him for the rest of the year. He has been the league’s worst starting goalie. If you want to take a run at a top five pick then this is your guy.
Things should heat up in the very near future. Stay tuned.
Thanks for reading!
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