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Today I take a look at the Hart Trophy voting for 2010 through the scope of analytics. Two time reigning MVP Alex Ovechkin is back in the mix and joining him for the first time in a few years is Penguins Captain Sidney Crosby. Henrik Sedin's first career appearance as a finalist was a very successful one.
Here is how the actual voting went down
1. Henrik Sedin, VAN 894 (46-34-27-19-4)
2. Alex Ovechkin, WSH 834 (40-35-22-22-13)
3. Sidney Crosby, PIT 729 (20-35-38-29-7)
How did our finalists do offensively?
Henrik Sedin won the Art Ross Trophy with 112 points but his goal total of 29 is way below the other two candidates.
Sidney Crosby picked up his first and only Rocket Richard Trophy by scoring 51 goals on the season while adding 109 points. Alex Ovechkin was right behind him with 50 goals and the same 109 points.
How were the players utilized by their team?
Sidney Crosby faced the toughest competition of the group while Alex Ovechkin was given the least favorable zone starts. Henrik Sedin faced the easiest competition while getting the most favorable zone starts. Out of the three candidates his job was the easiest.
Let's check out the Fenclose percentages of each of the finalists:
Sidney Crosby comes in with the best possession numbers at a gaudy 56.2%. Alex Ovechkin for the third year in a row comes in with great possession numbers, he sits at 55.1%. Henrik Sedin is the low man on the totem pole barely sliding above the 50% barrier at 50.8%
Conclusion
The voters royally screwed this year up. Henrik Sedin may have been the Art Ross Trophy winner but he only had 4 more points than Crosby or Ovechkin and sat at least 21 goals behind both of them. He had the easiest role amongst the three finalists and the worst possession. Perhaps the voters were sick and tired of Crosby and Ovechkin being jammed down everybody's throats but that doesn't mean those two aren't the best of this time period.
Frankly speaking Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin got royally screwed in the voting this year. Henrik Sedin should not have won the award. That isn't the same as saying Sedin didn't have a great year, it just means there were at least two players who were better.
So, now that we are left with Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin as the more deserving candidates, which one is more deserving?
They both had the same amount of points and basically the same amount of goals. For me this comes down to the role they played and what kind of possession they were able to produce from it. Sidney Crosby had the higher relative QoC as well as the higher Fenclose percentage. Ovechkin had himself another Hart caliber season, but I am giving the 2010 Hart Trophy to Sidney Crosby.
This would have been Crosby's second career Hart Trophy.
Take a look at past blogs in this series:
2008 Hart Trophy is
here
2009 Hart Trophy is
here
Thanks for reading!
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