Kyle Dubas has a lot of work to do in order to accomplish the franchise’s goal of being legitimately competitive. It means there’s a lot of short-term choices to be made which will play a big role in how the next two years go. Some of these short-term decisions can have a huge impact on the long-term. One of those short-term choices that will have big long term ramifications is what he does with Jake Guentzel.

I’m going to just say it directly, Jake Guentzel is one of my favorite players of this era. He’s a complete gamer. He has a ton of raw skill and the hockey IQ to match. A perfect complement to star centers like Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. The kind of player you just aren’t going to replace. There’s nothing in the prospect pool that is going to come close. There are also no free agents who will come in at a value to save on money. I bring all of this up because Jake Guentzel will be 29 years old next season and will also be a pending UFA. He’s been one of the better goal scoring wingers since he joined the league. The team is between a rock and a hard place, as are all teams when dealing with their better UFA’s. It’s built into the broken free agency system. The players who are free to choose where they want to sign are also the ones who have like already played their best hockey. It isn’t normal for players to keep playing awesome into their mid-thirties. The Penguins have just been spoiled in this regard.

If the team is truly all-in on competing with Crosby, Malkin, and Letang I think you have to re-sign Jake Guetnzel. It’s probably going to by an 8x8 kind of deal. The tail end of the deal being bad would coincide with the team being bad and not competitive, so whatever.

There is precedent with Dubas to walk away from a contract like this, he did it with Zach Hyman. In 2020-21 Hyman was in his 28-year-old season and put up 15 goals and 33 points in only 43 games. He was a big producer for the Leafs. Dubas elected to let him walk where he landed a seven-year 38.5M contract with the Edmonton Oilers. He replaced Hyman with Michael Bunting who put up 23 goals and 63 points in 79 games. His cap hit was 950k. One of Dubas’ strengths is to fill out the roster depth with cheap and effective players. Michael Bunting being a great example.

The Guentzel and Hyman comparison isn’t an exact one, though. The Maple Leafs core group of players is younger and as such the decisions made needed to have more care with the long term window. The Penguins, due to the core’s age, are in a much different scenario. Long term is going to be bad regardless. So they could effectively mortgage the future and it wouldn’t derail anything because there is nothing to derail.

Another big difference is that Jake Guentzel better than Zach Hyman. Hyman had a huge year last year with 36 goals. By far his best goal scoring year beating the prior year’s 27. Guentzel had 36 goals this year and many considered it a down year as the Penguins winger has had two prior 40 goal campaigns. Guentzel’s career 82 game scoring pace is 36 goals while Hyman’s is a very respectable, but lower 25.

While I think there are valid arguments to be made about not giving the huge UFA contracts to players entering their 30’s; I think the Penguins are in a very unique position where they can and they should. All-in means all-in and good luck telling Sidney Crosby you didn’t want to sign his favorite winger after you sold him on being competitive now. The Penguins and Dubas should bite the bullet here and look to find their savings elsewhere in the lineup.

Thanks for reading!

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