As we head into the 2023-24 season there have been many changes to the roster. In fact, there may be a record setting number (for the Penguins) of new players for an opening night roster. There will be a lot of different variables coming together for the first time. Today, I want to focus on something more familiar. Bryan Rust is entering his tenth season as a Pittsburgh Penguin. He has been a staple of the top six for the past few years which earned him his five-year 30.75M contract.
By many, last year was a down year for Bryan Rust. He scored four fewer goals and 12 fewer points despite playing in 21 more games when comparing 2021-22 to 2022-23. The Penguins are still a top heavy offensive team at even-strength and Bryan Rust is still slotted to be in the part that is heavy. The team and fans will be looking for him to bounce back.
What does a reasonable bounce back look like, though? I think people are going to have to temper expectations if they want to judge by raw goals and points totals. A big part of why Rust’s numbers swelled the past few years won’t be available to him, anymore. Last year Rust’s position on the Penguins #1 power play unit was taken by Rickard Rakell. This year Erik Karlsson has been added to the mix. Karlsson will definitely be running the top power play. The other right-handed spot will likely come down to either Rakell or Kris Letang depending on how the Penguins want to set things up. With Karlsson, there is an extra roadblock to Rust returning to the top power play, thus taking away those production points.
Each of the last four seasons Bryan Rust has put up double digit points on the Penguins power play, even last year.
I’m not so sure he will have a realistic opportunity to do so in 2023-24 with the new roster and this should alter the expectations we have for him offensively. The percentage of points which came on the power play for Bryan Rust in the past four seasons were 30.3, 26.2, 36.2, and 23.9. It is doubtful to be that high again this upcoming season.
The appropriate focus should shift to 5v5 rate stats. This is where Rust’s value will be more so than the total points due to the change in his expected role. This is also an area where he needs to have a bounce back season to earn his AAV.
Since becoming a regular with the Penguins here are his 5v5 points per 60
He can’t be in the 1.55 range given his 5v5 usage. His teammates were/are very good. The two players he shared the ice with the most last year were Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel at 525 minutes and 493 minutes respectively. Right behind those two were Evgeni Malkin at 481 minutes and Jason Zucker at 456 minutes. This was not a quality of teammate issue. For Rust to give the Penguins what they need he’s going to have to be in the 1.75 or higher range. I think it is a reasonable ask given he will likely be the beneficiary of another season with quality linemates. Also, he wasn’t playing bad hockey and hasn’t for some time, or really ever. His xGF% at 5v5 has been a strength of his during his career.
This is evidence for a glass half full prediction for 2023-24. You can’t coast your way to a 54.87 xGF%. You have to be able to hold your own and Rust did.
The last thing I’m going to share are his shooting percentages. Last year was his worst year since his first full year in the league. He was down from his career average of 12.3%.
This would be more evidence for a glass half full approach entering next season. Rust could certainly fall off a cliff at age 31. He wouldn’t be the first and also wouldn’t be the last to do so. However, I think his xGF% from last year still points to an effective player. Effective players are candidates to regress back to career norms so it isn’t crazy to think he’ll have a better shooting season than he did in 2022-23.
It is going to be tough for Rust to put up 50+ point seasons without the power play time he was accustomed to. It doesn’t mean he can’t be an effective top six player for the Penguins. As long as he keeps his xGF% in the range he’s had in his career so far, gets his 5v5 points per 60 1.75 or higher, and gets some shooting regression he will be doing exactly what the team needs him to do.
It can be done, a 31-year-old Jason Zucker did exactly this last year.
Thanks for reading!
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