The NHL offseason is picking up steam. The three-time reigning Eastern Conference champs just traded away Ryan McDonagh. The Los Angeles Kings made a big trade to acquire Kevin Fiala. There are new coaching hires such as Paul Maurice (Florida), Jim Montgomery (Boston), Rick Bowness (Winnipeg), and Luke Richardson (Chicago). Brock Boeser signed a three-year deal in Vancouver. Just today the Sharks hired Mike Grier as their general manager. The first black GM in the 100+ year history of the league. Things are happening.
There will be a lot more in the coming days as the 2022 NHL entry draft is on July 7th and 8th. Currently the Pittsburgh Penguins hold the 21st selection in the draft. Ron Hextall has talked about the importance of keeping this pick to help build up their farm system. There is a time and a place where this strategy has merit. That time and place isn’t for the Pittsburgh Penguins heading into the 2022-23 season.
The new owners want to be competitive. There was a time where the Penguins could have used a hybrid approach with their roster using futures to draft players while maintaining a quality NHL roster. Jim Rutherford closed the door on that strategy with his use of draft picks in both trades and the actual players he selected. Trying to draft players now with the expectation they will keep this team competitive in the next few seasons is misguided. It accomplishes close to nothing. You have to play the hand you are dealt. Ron Hextall wasn’t dealt a hand where using a 21st overall draft pick makes sense this year.
There are definitely 21st overall selections who turn into NHL players, some of them decent. The probability the player is ready within three years (Penguins timeframe) and playing at a quality level is not high.
The Penguins have a recent example of using their 21st overall pick with Sam Poulin. Three years later and he is no closer to being a contributor on what is a team looking to compete. The odds of a Sam Poulin are bigger than a
I think the better path is to use the 21st overall selection in a draft day trade. There are different ways you can use it.
The classic way of using it individually in an attempt to acquire a player of value
Combining the first round pick with another rostered player to acquire a player of value
Or the less popular, but still useful, attaching the first round pick to a bad contract player in an effort to convince another team to take that player (ie Jeff Carter). It isn't palatable, but neither is falling victim to the sunken cost fallacy.
I’d rather go down one of those three paths than to actually select a player with the pick. It think it is likely the Penguins will re-sign Kris Letang. If you’re doing that you are pushing your chips in now. You need players who can help now. Or you need to get rid of cap hits on your roster to give yourself more flexibility.
The Penguins do not have a lot of wiggle room for mistakes in this timeline. There are some paths to increase their chances of staying relevant. They need to take advantage of them.
Re-sign both Kris Letang and Evgeni Malkin
Use their first round pick for immediate help now
Ditch some mid-tier contracts for better roster flexibility. Candidates include: Brian Dumoulin, Kasperi Kapanen (don’t bring back), Brock McGinn, Marcus Pettersson, Jeff Carter, and Jason Zucker.
While these are all reasonable and actionable. I question the appetite Ron Hextall has for actually going through with them. I think it would be to the team’s detriment.
Thanks for reading!
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