Today starts the free agent frenzy. While Pittsburgh is very likely to be on the sidelines it is still interesting to follow everything else around the league.
Not all free agency targets are created equal. Here are a few suggestions in the good and bad column.
Good Targets
Brian Campbell
Why he's a good target: He is still a great driver of possession and gets his forwards the puck with speed. He may have lost some of his speed but he is not a skating liability. Very cerebral player and still carries quality value. He is looking for a short term deal which is ideal considering his age. Unfortunately, he probably doesn't have your favorite team on his short list. Chicago is the front runner here.
Kyle Okposo
Probably the best offensive player on the market. Produces offense at a first line level during 5v5 while maintaining the ability to drive play when the offense dries up. The last three years his 5v5 points per 60 is at 2.13. Okposo will be looking to cash in as he is coming off making only 2.8M per season. He is one of the bigger fish on the market but this good target can go to a bad target quickly if you give him the Bobby Ryan deal (7.25M with maximum term).
Frans Nielsen
Why he's a good target: Solid second line player. Very competent defensively but still able to produce points in that 50-60 range. He will probably cost 4.5-5M per season but you would be getting an all around player. Concern with Nielsen is that he is already 32 years old. Be careful with the term you hand out on this one. He should still be productive for a few more seasons.
Eric Staal
Why he's a good target: I went back and forth with this one. It depends on if you are going to sign Eric Staal to be a top six center or if you are going to sign him as a top six complimentary winger. If you sign him as the complimentary winger while his value is down in the dumps you could do OK here. Eric Staal used to be a tremendous player in the NHL, but that time has come and gone. His days as a useful player are definitely not over. You need to temper expectations and this can be a good target. What you'll get is somebody like the 2015-16 Chris Kunitz. A player who helps get the puck down in the oppositions end but doesn't quite add tangible offense like he used to.
Jason Demers
Why he's a good target: He's a right handed defenseman who is actually good. He is a good move of the puck which has translated well on the possession front. His 5v5 points per 60 the past two season in Dallas has been 0.92 which is about the same as Shea Weber's 0.93 in that same time frame. However, Demers won't cost 7.8M for the next decade.
Patrick Wiercioch
Why he's a good target: If you are looking to shore up your defense depth you could do a lot worse than Wiercioch. He isn't going to break the bank and during his time in Ottawa he had a positive relative possession rating on Ottawa despite not playing with Erik Karlsson all that much. You aren't going to get much in the way of offensive production but how many bottom pairing guys can do that anyways? With Wiercioch you'll get a depth player who won't drown out on the ice.
Jhonas Enroth
Why he's a good target: It is likelier that he will give you league average goaltending or better than it isn't. He is going to be very cheap and he has held down the #1 job before albeit briefly for the Buffalo Sabres. The Sabres traded him away because he was playing too good in the season that they were trying to bottom out.
Bad Targets
Milan Lucic
Why he's a bad target: it isn't that Lucic is necessarily a bad player (he isn't). It's just that his contract is going to be terrible. Somebody (Edmonton) is going to give him enormous money and term and it just doesn't make sense to do so. He is 28 years old and if you sign him to 7 years it is almost certainly not going to end well. He is a top six winger at the moment but players built like him usually lose it fast.
Mikkel Boedker
Why he's a bad target: He is going to get paid like a top line player but he is a power play specialist in actuality. Boedker produces offense at a third line level at even-strength and is pretty bad on the possession front. Unless you are feeding him #1 power play minutes you aren't going to get the production you thought you were going to. Don't pay top dollar for a specialist.
Thomas Vanek
Why he's a bad target: He has never been the fastest skater on the ice but he was always able to make up for it with providing a solid offensive attack. Even in his best years he was a drain on possession. With the league becoming faster with each passing year and Vanek's inability to produce the way he has in the past I would bargain hunt somewhere else (Stempniak, Versteeg)
Kris Russell
Why he's a bad target: He isn't good. When he is on the ice his team bleeds shot attempts. Anybody who hasn't been hiding under a rock knows the significance of shot attempts these days. Some observers praise his shot blocking abilities but that is the reason for concern. He is always blocking shots because the puck is always in the defensive zone.
David Backes
Why he's a bad target: David Backes will be 32 years old when the season begins in 2016-17. He is coming off of a decent playoff run with St. Louis but you will be paying heavily for past performance. The possession and offensive numbers are starting to slide with Backes and I don't see those numbers rebounding considering his age and style of play.
Matt Martin
Why he's a bad target: He's a fourth line player looking for 3-4M per year. That is exactly the role you shouldn't spend anything on. Pay your good players and plug and play the rest. Don't pay a premium for the plug and play guys. Especially ones that are best known for throwing hits and 42 goals in 438 career games. Matt Martin may be our "That's per year" Bob McKenzie moment this year.
Andrew Ladd
Why he's a bad target: He is going to command a decent contract and much like Backes he will be getting paid for past performance. He has been a very good player for the past number of seasons but you can't give somebody like him six years and 36M at the age of 30. Recency bias is still alive and well in the NHL so we will see if his less than desirable playoff performance with Chicago drove his price down at all.
Thanks for reading!
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