Things are really starting to feel like the spring of 2014. The Penguins just got done with blowing a 3-1 series lead against the Rangers and all eyes were on the general manager and head coach. In the present we have another underwhelming playoff series loss and the focus is also on the general manager and coach.
According to a dozen source from within the team and around the league the picture painted isn’t encouraging.
One of the bigger takeaways from this story (and there are many) is that the Penguins might not be a cap team next year. In related news: Jim Rutherford missed the playoffs 14 out of the 19 years when he was with Hartford/Carolina teams that didn’t spend a lot. Only making the playoffs ~25% of the time isn’t a great look, yet one often ignored as if he has drastically changed as a general manager when he was hired in Pittsburgh.
The Penguins, for the first time since 2007, likely will not spend near the salary cap to start the upcoming season, according to multiple team and league sources.
Revenue is down, in part because of early playoff exits and in part because of the COVID-19 pandemic, and ownership believes cost-cutting measures are reasonable at this time. Rutherford would be permitted to spend to the cap in-season if ownership was convinced the club was a piece or two away from a deep playoff run, team and industry sources said.
“They’re a revenue-based ownership. They spend what they make,” an industry source said. “Maybe it’s not the best thing to count on playoff home games, but they do, so nobody should be surprised if things tighten there.”
So what does a lower cap look like? Is it 75M? Is it even lower? It isn’t good no matter how you slice it. The good news is this will be impacting pretty much every team. The bad news, the Penguins usually rely on playoff ticket revenue to make a profit. They’ve had all of two home playoff games the last two years. Last year was completely their fault, this year obviously not with no team having a home game. End result is still two home playoff games in two years and a big loss in revenue. While the Penguins have been a cap ceiling team I believe it has been because they felt like the team could legitimately win. Take that away and I’m not sure they have interest in being one. Lemieux was thinking about cashing out a few years ago. Burkle who is a business man first would stand to make a ton of money cashing out with the franchise skyrocketing in value since the original purchase. This subject was broached six years ago in Lemieux’s famous article with Dejan Kovacevic after the 2014 playoffs and Shero’s firing.
DK: Is there any value in the NHL's current economic system to maintaining some kind of cushion with the cap?
(Both men laugh.)
Lemieux: Yeah. How do we do that?
DK: Well, by drafting better? Don't you have to have four or five younger players on your roster for that purpose alone?
Burkle: We certainly don't disagree with you on that. I think when we made a decision for a lot of good business to go to the cap six years ago, we were opening a new arena, and we wanted to let our fans know we intended to win. It was actually one of those two or three moments where we all got involved in the hockey operations, the GM's world, and everything else. It's ultimately our decision how much we spend, but we all sat down and said, look, you guys have a plan for the team you want to have in five years, we want to step it up. We don't want to wait five years. I've got Crosby now. I've got Malkin now. I don't think a five-year plan makes sense. But what that wasn't was a commitment to spend to the cap just to say we spent to the cap. And I think what we fell into was spending to the cap just because it was there. We don't have a driven reason to spend to the cap just to do it. That's foolish.
You can see in the bolded part the current owners are on record saying spending to the cap isn’t an automatic thing. Yes, coronavirus is a major driving factor in the team cutting back, but I don’t think they cut back if they think they were on the cusp of something great. I think they would spend. It is equal parts the virus and the sample of results since the last championship. It has been a steady decline.
There are certainly some obvious candidates for the Penguins if they want to shed salary. Unfortunately, not all of them will be practical to move. Jack Johnson is the elephant in the room, but everybody knows the elephant stinks and holds all the other elephants back when he’s with them. The answer here is a buyout. A buyout sucks and would last for six years. What is the alternative at this point? He CANNOT be on the roster and the only way to move him would be to package him with a useful asset. The Penguins don’t have enough of those to burn through because they’ve burned through them with other mistakes. His 3.25M cap hit is going to cause the Penguins to scale back in other areas if they are cutting spending. HOW ARE THEY LETTING ONE OF THE WORST PLAYERS OF THE ERA DICTATE SPENDING AND TEAM SUCCESS.
Nick Bjugstad? I actually believe it won’t be hard to shed his contract if they really want to. He has had injury problems, but he is still a 6’6” center with enough success in his past where a team desperate for center depth *COUGH SABRES COUGH* would find interest. Buffalo would probably take him for a 4th round pick. For the Penguins they could take a 7th and be fine if shedding his salary is the prime objective. Beggars can’t be choosers in this economy so Bjugsatd might have more value than some of the other Penguins with mid-tier contracts.
The real question is *should* the Penguins shed his contract. They literally don’t have a third line center. McCann is not a center. Teddy Blueger is totally fine as a 4th line center, but he is not a third line center of a championship team. Look around the league and the upcoming free agent class. Can you do better than Nick Bjugstad at 4.1M? Bjugstad only has one year left. It isn’t like you’re going to have to dive in head first with a contract with a bunch of term on it like you might if you outsource the problem. While Bjugstad’s departure seems like forgone conclusion I’m not so sure it should be. His 2018-19 wasn’t bad. It was totally acceptable for a third line center
I wouldn’t do anything with Bjugstad right now. Sure, look for a different third line center, but it isn’t going to be an easy task and at least with Bjugstad you have insurance.
Matt Murray? I believe he has played his last game as a Penguin. I believe they can easily shed the pending RFA. He has no bargaining leverage. In the three years since his amazing back to back Cup years he has been a mediocre (to put it politely) mess. The catch is the Penguins won’t get back anything worthwhile in return barring something unexpected. It’s fine. Don’t drain the budget on goaltending. Jarry and DeSmith both have slivers of NHL success. The odds of one of them being league average is worth the risk of moving on from Murray.
Patric Hornqvist? This is going to be a tough sell. He certainly has value on a power play in front of the net, but his 5v5 play is not where it used to be. He is getting older and starting to break down. Other teams should be able to notice he doesn’t play with Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin despite a hole for a top six right wing. This contract was bad the moment it was signed. It was always going to be about the early returns and let’s be honest the early returns have been meh. He has three years left and is entering the final year his contract has a full NMC (what the hell?). Teams aren’t going to be desperate to take on his 5.3M cap hit with three years remaining.
Brandon Tanev? This will be an unpopular take. He wasn’t that great. He didn’t move the needle in the areas the Penguins need the needle moved. He is a luxury piece that doesn’t move the Penguins closer to a title. I said it when he was signed and I’ll say it again, this isn’t a Jack Johnson situation. He is useful at certain things. He was great defensively. There are two issues with his strength being defensive. He is never going to get heavy minutes against the other team’s best players and more importantly he is just as bad offensively, perhaps worse. This isn’t a guy you can move up the lineup. People say he can, people want to try it, but there is literally no evidence he has any kind of offensive talent. He is uncreative and has minimal hands.
He does skate fast and it is a big reason for his defensive success. I liked him on the penalty kill. On a team cutting spending down from the cap ceiling you do have to ask what the Penguins really get for 3.5M from Tanev. Add it to the Johnson cap hit and you have ~7M tied up with no significant positive return on the investment. There are two problems with the Tanev contract. The Penguins won’t be interested in moving it and even if they were the term on that deal might work as its own NTC. Flame away, but this 3.5M could be way more useful if allocated towards different purposes (Dadonov, Hoffman, Toffoli, Fast, Shattenkirk etc…)
Jared McCann? I don’t hate the player. I think he is better than how he finished this season. I also think, much like the majority of players, he is prone to be streaky. When he isn’t producing tangible offense what is he providing? The answer is not much. He absolutely cannot be relied on to be an answer for the Penguins as a third line center. So where does he fit? Jake Guentzel and Jason Zucker have the top six on lock down. I’m not against bringing him back, but it would be in a third line winger role coming off a pretty poor showing in 2020. If he is playing hardball I don’t have time to waste on it. If he wants 2.5-3.0M I’ll give him a short deal.
Kris Letang? You laugh, but in
Sean Gentillie’s piece today
the first paragraph is raises an absolutely absurd possibility
When the Penguins play their next hockey game — whether in 2020, 2021, in Pittsburgh, in a bubble, in a space station — there’s a chance that Jack Johnson is in the lineup and Kris Letang is not.
Yikes. It is such a ludicrous thing and I wish I could dismiss it as the lunacy it is on the surface, but can we? Kris Letang is still a really really, really, really good player. Moving him does nothing for the team. His cap hit isn’t even an issue! He is great value at 7.25M. Not to mention you’d piss off Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin if you moved him. I hate that I even had to add this section. Here’s another unpopular take. John Marino isn’t THAT good. Before you get your pitchforks out I think he is indeed, very good. If things play out the way they should he will be locked into the #2 right defense spot for many years. He is also never going to be as good as Kris Letang and that is OK! It isn’t OK if you move Letang and hand him the top pairing role right now because you wanted to cut some cap. You cannot replace Letang’s offensive impact with the following:
I am biased in how I want to construct a roster. I want offensive players. I want the other team to react to what I am doing. I don’t want to be the team with a bunch of defensive specialists who spend the whole game reacting to what the other team is trying to do. Letang is a huge presence on the ice and forces teams to react. Sure, he makes some glaring errors over the course of the season, but he causes the other team to make many more. Give me guys who can create time and space because of their mind and skating ability. I don’t want players allergic to time and space and can’t do anything with it when they accidently stumble into it. Moving Letang is on par with moving Malkin. They are both dumb.
If the Penguins are only cutting their budget to 75M they are still in decent shape. Trading Matt Murray, and buying out Jack Johnson would pretty much get them there assuming DeSmith replaces Murray. The issue is what it always is, Jack Johnson. They won’t buy him out even though it would immediately improve both the on-ice product and the cap situation. Both of which are issues which need solving. So if they are dead set on keeping Johnson because Sullivan doesn’t think he’s a problem then we have a problem.
Nick Bjugstad sticks out like a sore thumb if Johnson’s 3.25M stays. However, as I mentioned above what is the solution to the third line center problem and what is the cost of acquiring that player? I’m not sold moving Bjugstad does more good than bad. Hornqvist and Tanev don’t provide full value for their price, but their contracts won’t be easy to move, if they want to move them at all.
There are options for Pittsburgh to save money and improve via addition by subtraction. I am not filled with confidence they feel the same way.
Thanks for reading!
Pittsburgh Penguins Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»