Over the following week or so I am going to try and create protection lists for each NHL team based on what we know about the upcoming expansion draft. I am going to go alphabetically and hammer out a handful of teams per blog.
At the end of this I will attempt to draft the Las Vegas expansion team based on the players who are unprotected from this series of blogs.
I will be using General Fanager's expansion tool in order to be as accurate as possible with my selections. You can find that tool here . It is an incredibly clean interface and makes this process very easy to execute.
I am going to select protected players based on the current roster and will not assume future trades IE: Pittsburgh moving Marc-Andre Fleury to protect Matt Murray or Anaheim trading Fowler to free up an extra protection slot. I don't have a crystal ball so I will just use what is in front of me right now. Doing it this way is also a good way to see what teams have some work ahead of them in advance of the expansion draft.
You can find part one of this series that focused on Anaheim, Arizona, Boston, Buffalo, and Calgary here
Today I will focus on Carolina, Chicago, Colorado, Columbus, and Dallas
The more I look at some of these teams the more grim I think it is for Las Vegas. Most of these teams are not going to be exposing quality players. Las Vegas will have to hit the cap floor and will not be able to solely rely on prospect selections.
With that said here are today's teams
Carolina
The Hurricanes have started to build up a nice collection of young defensemen in the Ron Francis era. Fortunately for the team players like Hanafin and Fleury are not eligible for the draft. As a result the Hurricanes will be going the 7 forward and 3 defensemen route. They do not have any no movement clauses to navigate so they have carte blanche to keep who they want
Forwards: Jeff Skinner, Jordan Staal, Elias Lindholm, Teuvo Teravainen, Viktor Rask, Andrej Nestrasil, Phillip Di Giuseppe
Defense: Justin Faulk, Ryan Murphy, Trevor Carrick
Goalie: Eddie Lack
Available to Las Vegas: Lee Stempniak, Joakim Nordstrom, Cam Ward
I flipped a coin between Phillip Di Giuseppe and Joakim Nordstrom . Ultimately I liked the 1.77 points per 60 that Di Giuseppe put up at even-strength last year. Lee Stempniak is a solid bottom six winger but at 33 years old I'd rather protect some of the younger players on a team that is in a rebuild. Carolina really doesn't have anything of note at the goaltender position. Las Vegas taking Cam Ward would be favor.
Chicago
It feels like this team has a million NMC's and they do, but it really shouldn't hurt them too badly. The four NMC's on the forward front are all players who they would protect anyways and it is the same on the defense front. The real question is whether they should go 7F/3D or 4F/4D.
Forwards: Jonathan Toews (NMC), Patrick Kane (NMC), Marian Hossa (NMC), Artem Anisimov (NMC)
Defense: Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Ville Pokka
Goalie: Corey Crawford
Available to Las Vegas: Marcus Kruger, Richard Panik, Ryan Hartman, Mark McNeil, Trevor van Riemsdyk
I went with the 4F/4D approach. I felt like protecting Ville Pokka was more important than protecting a guy like Ryan Hartman or Mark McNeil. Chicago caught a big break by getting Brian Campbell on the cheap this year, but they will need cheap and competent defense play in the years to come and Pokka is their #1 defense prospect right now. All in all the NMC's on Chicago's roster didn't damn them. They will be fine in the expansion draft.
Colorado
Colorado has some upper end forwards they need to protect but then they have middle six guys they don't need to sweat losing like Carl Soderberg and Blake Comeau. Soderberg is a good player but that contract was an overpay and too long. Getting that off the books wouldn't be the worst thing ever. Colorado is another team where I think you can go 4F/4D and be fine.
Forwards: Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog, Joe Colborne
Defense: Erik Johnson (NMC), Francois Beauchemin (NMC), Tyson Barrie, NIkita Zadorov
Goalie: Calvin Pickard
Available to Las Vegas: Semyon Varlamov, Eric Gelinas, Mikhail Grigorenko, Carl Soderberg, Blake Comeau
A few things here. The NMC to Francois Beauchemin is what drove the 4F/4D decision. I basically chose to keep Nikita Zadorov over Eric Gelinas and Mikhail Girgorenko. Joe Colbourne's 5v5 points per 60 of 2.32 last year is worth taking a chance on to see if it was a fluke or not. I left Semyon Varlamov unprotected not because I don't think he is any good but because I don't need to pay 5.9M for the next three years for what he brings. Also exposing Varlamov might sway Las Vegas from looking at a guy like Eric Gelinas. Zadorov was one of the bigger pieces in the Ryan O'Reilly trade and his upside is worth protecting to me. Considering Las Vegas has a cap floor to hit a players like Varlamov and Soderberg will be enticing.
Columbus
Welcome to NMC central. When I first started this exercise I thought Columbus was going to have one of the worst situations regarding the expansion draft and I think that holds true. They will be losing a quality forward with the current roster construction. This is the downfall of throwing a NMC to anybody with a pulse.
This is an obvious 7F/3D situation
Forwards: Brandon Dubinsky (NMC), Nick Foligno (NMC), Scott Hartnell (NMC), David Clarkson (NMC), Brandon Saad, Cam Atkinson, Alexander Wennberg
Defense: Seth Jones, Ryan Murray, Jack Johnson
Goalie: Sergei Bobrovsky
Available to Las Vegas: Boone Jenner (it doesn't matter who else is available).
OK so the big news here is Boone Jenner's availability. Based on the rules of this exercise I can only work with the current roster so something has to give on the forward front. It was Jenner or Atkinson. Alexander Wennberg is 21 years old and has already put up a 40 point year in the NHL. I'm not leaving him exposed. I like Atkinson's impact on possession and while his goal scoring ceiling probably isn't as high as Jenner I believe he creates more overall offense at even-strength with his playmaking. Clearly this is not an ideal situation.
You may notice I protected Jack Johnson(!). I still think he is a very bad player but his perceived value around the league is higher than it should be and I think there is some value in keeping him for a trade. The other guys on that list aren't very good either and don't have trade value.
In real life the Blue Jackets need to find somebody to take Scott Hartnell. This can avoid the whole Jenner/Atkinson exposure issue and should be priority #1 right now.
Dallas
This team overwhelmed me with the number of names eligible for the expansion draft. So many of them are in their lower to mid twenties and forced me to really research their prospect rankings. Dallas will be a 7F/3D team. With Patrick Sharp, Ales Hemsky, and Patrick Eaves being UFA's it made it easier to protect more players. The departures of Goligoski and Demers have hurt their defense corp. and made keeping four defensemen unnecessary.
Forwards: Jamie Benn (NMC), Jason Spezza (NMC), Tyler Seguin, Cody Eakin, Valeri Nichushkin, Radek Faksa, Brett Ritchie
Defense: John Klingberg, Esa Lindell, Stephen Johns
Goalie: Antti Niemi
Available to Las Vegas: Dan Hamhuis, Kari Lehtonen, Antoine Roussel, Jordie Benn, Patrik Nemeth
My research told me that there are very favorable opinions about Esa Lindell and he was a guy that had to be protected. To a lesser extent I found some positive things about Stephen Johns. I just didn't find any of the other Dallas defensemen worth protecting at the expense of those two and it was mostly age related. Patrik Nemeth is only 24 and has had some NHL time, but once again Las Vegas has a floor to hit and Dan Hamhuis' cap hit and ability will look appealing here.
I kept Antti Niemi because he was cheaper. I don't see a discernible difference between him and Lehtonen. They are both signed for two more years. If we are being honest Las Vegas would be doing Dallas a favor by taking a goaltender from them, regardless of who it is.
That is it for part two of this series. Part three will include Detroit, Edmonton, Florida, Los Angeles, and Minnesota.
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New Hockey Hurts Podcast discusses the fall from grace for the Detroit Red Wings as well as Tyson Barrie's new contract with the Avalanche. You can find that
here
Thanks for reading!
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