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Eliminating the Stigma Around Bouchard |
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Evan Bouchard will be an RFA this summer and the cap is about to increase at a rate we have not seen in a decade. Put those two things together and the 25 year old right shot defender is going to get paid.
Bouchard is the kind of player that certain circles of the Oilers fanbase love to hate. His naysayers will talk about his lack of physicality, that he is prone to bad turnovers either by being stripped of the puck or from cross ice passes that are picked off and while there are valid concerns, those who focus solely on what Bouchard isn't, entirely miss what he is.
I could go well into depth on underlying stats and analytics and how all of those showcase how good Bouchard is but the people who don't like Bouchard probably won't understand those things. Instead I am going to focus on basic things. Goals for and against, 5 on 5 production, stats that are concrete in showing what is actually happening on the ice.
Let's get a couple things out of the way first here. Bouchard is having a down season compared to last year but his point production is still very good. Tied for 6th in 5 on 5 points with 23 and tied with Quinn Hughes for the 2nd most 5 on 5 goals with 9. Bouchard is tied for the 11th most PP points among defenders with 16 and oddly enough has not scored on the PP this season. Bouchard is not simply a PP merchant who is benefitting from McDavid and Draisaitl minutes but we will get more to that in a bit.
Where Bouchard is struggling this year is in his giveaways. Last season in 81 games, Bouchard had 82 giveaways. This year in 55 games he has 91. That is unacceptable and the biggest area of his game that he needs to clean up, specifically the completely avoidable moments. The giveaway against the Avalanche while the Oilers were on the powerplay... exactly the type of thing that needs to come out of his game.
But giveaways are going to happen and Bouchard will likely always be higher to the top of that list because he is a player who makes a ton of plays. The three forwards this season who have given away the puck the most are Kucherov (88), MacKinnon (85), and Pastrnak (81). These are not bad players or defensively weak players but are guys who make a ton of plays and passes every game. If you are making 30 passes a game... chances are a couple of them are going to get picked off. It is limiting the big mistakes that remains the thing that will keep Bouchard from earning Norris votes.
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Next let's talk about Bouchard in relation to his teammates.
The Ekholm and Bouchard pairing has been the Oilers top pair for the past couple seasons and has been one of the best duos in the NHL. At 5 on 5, Bouch and Ekholm have played 856:22, being on the ice for 40GF and 29GA, a 57.97GF% and have outshot their opposition 499-325. Compare that to another elite defense pairing in Cale Makar and Devon Toews who have played 749:22 and been on the ice for 33GF and 21GA, a 61.11GF% and outshot their opposition 410-297. They are in good company among some of the best in the game.
Now let's address the other main argument; that Bouchard only produces or is a #1 defenseman because he plays with Ekholm or McDavid and Draisaitl.
As I just laid out above, Ekholm and Bouchard have played the bulk of their minutes together and have played roughly the same number of minutes apart. Bouchard has played 172 minutes at 5 on 5 without Ekholm. In those minutes the Oilers have outshot their opponent 112-70, scored 13 goals while allowing only 7 against.
Ekholm meanwhile has played 142 minutes without Bouchard, outshot their opponent 87-50 and his team has scored 9 goals while allowing 9 against. In the 1581 minutes where neither player is on the ice, the Oilers have gone 754-734 in shots and been outscored 58-61.
So Bouchard and Ekholm are the best when they are playing together, Bouchard still helps his team outscore the opposition when Ekholm isn't playing with him, and overall the team is at their best when both players are on the ice. Cool.
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Next let's look at Bouchard's numbers with and without McDavid and Draisaitl.
First of all, these are three players that love to play with one another and dominate when they do so. In the 259 minutes at 5 on 5 the Draisaitl, McDavid, and Bouchard have played together this season, the Oilers have outshot their opponent 187-102 and outscored them to the tune of 22-8. That is a 73.33GF%. I know most of us would prefer that the coach keep McDavid and Draisaitl separated but it's also hard to ignore the results.
Next let's look at McDavid and Draisaitl together without Bouchard. #29 and #97 have played 67 minutes together without Bouchard on the ice. They outshot their opponent 67-36 but were outscored 3-6 in that time.
Next we have the big one, Bouchard without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice. Bouchard has played 204 minutes at 5 on 5 this season without McDavid or Draisaitl. In those minutes the Oilers have outshot their opponent 141-103 and outscored them 11-8.
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So we have a player who logs 23+ minutes a game for the Oilers, who helps the best players on the team in McDavid and Draisaitl score at a higher rate and even if those players are not on the ice still helps his team both out-chance and out-score the opposition when he is on the ice. That sounds like a #1 defenseman and a player who should certainly be locked up long term.
The people who look at Bouchard and only see the giveaways quite simply do not understand how the modern NHL is played and more specifically, how the Edmonton Oilers generate chances. It doesn't take a genius to see that the bulk of the Oilers offense comes from the top six with Draisaitl and McDavid centering their own lines. The reason Ekholm and Bouchard play the bulk of their minutes with those two players is that they are the Oilers best options at getting the forwards the puck. McDavid and Draisaitl don't need slow physical defensemen to lay bone crushing hits in their own end. "Playing defense" in today's NHL is being a playmaker who can transition the puck from one end of the puck to the other. The numbers clearly show that Bouchard is a positive force in making that happen.
Bouchard needs to eliminate the big unforced turnovers but this is a player only in his 4th full NHL season. There is plenty of time for him to learn and continue to improve but next time the Oilers play, I would challenge those who think Bouchard doesn't "defend" to watch every pass and play he does make instead of just the one or two turnovers. Maybe they will start to realize that if the Oilers trade this player, they will spend the next 10 years trying to replace him.
Bouchard isn't as good as Makar or Hughes but that is the equivalent of saying Jack Eichel or Pastrnak aren't as good as MacKinnon or McDavid. This is a dominant offensive defenseman who is a key part in the Oilers success and the success of McDavid and Draisaitl. This is a player who the Oilers management needs to lock up for the next eight years and likely beyond.
Thanks for reading.
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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