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The Maple Leafs Could Learn Lessons From the Oilers |
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In preparation for the Oilers and Leafs matchup on Tuesday, I thought I'd use today to provide my own insight into what ails the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have a highly skilled group of core players. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and Tavares. They have a fantastic defender in Morgan Reilly and a veteran goaltender who is putting up a career year despite being 34 years old in Martin Jones. When their top guys are going, the Leafs look like a team that can beat anyone in the NHL.
The issue that has plagued Toronto over the past few seasons and seems painfully obvious right now is that collectively this group doesn't have what it takes to win the tough games and when their opponent pushes back - they falter.
Right now watching the Leafs, I am seeing plenty of shades of the 19/20 Oilers, a top heavy skilled team that didn't yet understand it takes more than elite talent to win regularly. That Oilers team went 37-25-9 (37-34 in terms of actual wins vs losses). That team was led by a Hart Trophy worthy season by Draisaitl, another great McDavid season, a near ppg pace by RNH, strong production from Oscar Klefbom and Darnell Nurse on the backend and good enough goaltending from a veteran in Mike Smith.
Despite a collection of very good players, the Oilers lost in the qualifying round, and quite convincingly, to the Blackhawks. Edmonton would perform fairly similarly in 20/21, losing to the Jets. They had a dominant run in 21/22 before getting smoked in the Western Conference Finals to the Colorado Avalanche.
The Oilers were a team that were always trying to outscore their mistakes. It was a moniker that started in the early 2010's and has followed them ever since. Outside fanbases will still state this is the case but those who follow the team closely can recognize the shift in their play.
Back to the Leafs for a moment. Here are the six main players on Toronto's blueline. My simple and honest question for Leafs fans. How many players here would you classify as "difficult to play against?"
Morgan Rielly: 6'1 - 222lbs - 0.8 hits per game -- T.J. Brodie: 6'2 - 187lbs - 0.6 hits per game
Jake McCabe: 6'1 - 204lbs - 2.1 hits per game -- Timothy Liljegren: 6'1 - 192lbs - 1.2 hits per game
Simon Benoit: 6'3 - 203lbs - 2.9 hits per game -- Mark Giordano: 6'0 - 205lbs - 1.0 hits per game
Morgan Rielly is a #1 defenseman but he defends through smart positioning and excellent stickwork. Ideally you would want to see him paired with a more shutdown partner... instead he gets T.J. Brodie, a top 4 defenseman I suppose because he logs a bunch of minutes. What he does with those minutes is up for debate.
Jake McCabe is an excellent player who has done well to replace the hole left by the unfortunate loss of Muzzin. The biggest knock against him is not his fault in that he isn't 6'4 and 615lbs. Another great player who Toronto should absolutely be qualifying next season is Simon Benoit. At 6'3 and 203lbs, Benoit isn't afraid to mix it up physically and has strong underlying numbers to boot. If Benoit played the right side, I would try him with Rielly.
I'll fully admit to not knowing Liljegren's game aside from he's a smart two way player. Giordano is at this stage in his career washed up and a liability and his most recent scratch is a reflection of that.
The Leafs have a blueline full of NHL players but is this group balanced? I would say absolutely not. The "biggest" player on this roster is Simon Benoit but he can't be the threatening tower on the blueline averaging only 15 minutes a game.
Compare that to the current Oilers blueline:
Darnell Nurse: 6'4 - 221lbs - 1.7 hits per game -- Cody Ceci: 6'2 - 210lbs - 0.6 hits per game
Mattias Ekholm: 6'4 - 215lbs - 1.6 hits per game -- Evan Bouchard: 6'3 - 194lbs - 0.7 hits per game
Brett Kulak: 6'1 - 197lbs - 0.6 hits per game -- Vincent Desharnais: 6'7 - 226lbs - 1.2 hits per game
Darnell Nurse is not a 9.25 million dollar defender but he is playing like a top pairing defender and has used his size and speed at both ends of the ice far more intelligently than in years past. Cody Ceci is the weak link in this group and falls into the T.J. Brodie category of "top 4 because he plays top four minutes."
Ekholm is a big smart two way defender who can lay a hit just as easily as he can thread a pass out of the zone. Evan Bouchard is the best pure passer on the team and a dominant offensive player and he has cleaned up his egregious defensive mistakes that were costing the team early in the season.
Kulak is having a down year but remains a fine two way third pairing option but is certainly being carried more by Desharnais who is a physical force on the ice and has actually turned into a very defensively conscious player.
Make no mistakes, I don't think the Oilers have the best defensive group in the NHL. I do however think it is absolutely superior to the Leafs. While the Leafs six players are technically averaging more hits a game, the Oilers blueline is far more imposing. Size throughout the lineup and a balanced mix of offensive and defensive options.
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Perhaps the biggest change for the Oilers is not just their personnel, but the fact that they've finally embraced playing a team defensive game. There is plenty of work to be done but the horrendous start to the season may have been the best thing that could have happened to this group. Edmonton came into the season as a favorite to win the West and a Cup favorite. There was plenty that went wrong to start the season but I think those expectations went to their heads. The Oilers were playing like a team that expected to win just by being on the ice.
To dig themselves out of that hole, the Oilers went to work. Every win and those 2 points became a crucial battle. The forwards suddenly weren't jumping out of the zone too early and players became laser focused on their coverage. The Oilers PP ranks 7th in the league this season. Good, but not the unstoppable force that they relied on last season. At 5 on 5 this Oilers team is putting in the work and it's a huge part why they've won 10 in a row.
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The Leafs may very well win their matchup against the Oilers. As I wrote off the top, they have some dominant skill players and if they are feeling it they can beat anyone in the NHL. Long term however this Leafs roster just doesn't look like they have the right mix of players. When that organization realizes that building a good team takes more than good players, maybe they can become a legitimate Cup contender.
Thanks for reading.
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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