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The Problem With Darnell Nurse |
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Darnell Nurse has been a polarizing figure almost since the day he was drafted. Many looked at Nurse as the future #1 defenseman of the organization, a Prongeresque player with size, speed, and offense to match. Nurse is now 300 games into his NHL career and he is playing top pairing minutes for this team but not it is not nearly so cut and dry to call this a success story.
Let's start with the good. The one thing Nurse has done very well throughout his career is produce at 5 on 5. Aside from last season, Nurse received almost no powerplay time, being utilized almost entirely at even strength. Through his 301 games Nurse has gone 26-71-97. 25 of Darnell's goals have come at EV. This season, Nurse is on pace to produce roughly 33 points, likely with almost all of them once again being at 5 on 5.
So we have a skilled puck moving defender who produces most of his points at 5 on 5. Great! Now onto the reason why some fans have been less than enamored with him. Remember that fantastic 6-2 victory against the Colorado Avalanche? Edmonton scored 2 goals in that game at 5 on 5, scoring the other 4 on the powerplay. The Avs scored their two goals both at 5 on 5... and Darnell Nurse was on the ice for both of them.
Let's be clear, this isn't about +/- this is the amount of 5 on 5 goals that are scored for each team when Nurse is on the ice... and more often than not, the opposition is outscoring the Oilers when Nurse is on the ice. Things weren't terrible for the Nurse-Bear pairing early, but they've gotten drastically worse over recent games.
Through the first 10 games of the season, there were 3 games where Nurse came out ahead in terms of 5 on 5 scoring:
Final Score (EVGF/A)
EDM 3 - VAN 2 (2-0)
EDM 4 - NYR 1 (1-0)
EDM 2 - DET 1 (2-1)
Through the last 12 games, there has been one game where more goals were produced when Nurse was on the ice than allowed.
EDM 6 - ANA 2 (3-1)
Now some may want to point out that is because Nurse is playing the most minutes as a defender and he is playing with a young rookie defenseman. The exact same can be said about Oscar Klefbom, with the exception that his main partner this season, Joel Persson, hasn't been nearly as productive or effective as Ethan Bear.
This season Darnell Nurse has played 409:10 at 5 on 5, with 20 goals being scored while he is on the ice and 25 allowed. Oscar Klefbom has played 382:39 this season with 15 goals being scored while he is on the ice... and only 13 have been allowed.
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Am I suggesting that the Edmonton Oilers need to cut and run from Nurse right now? No. There are many things Nurse does effectively and for too many years the Oilers have traded away useful blueliners because they tried to shoehorn them into roles they were not suited for. It's my belief that Nurse is most suited for a second pairing, playing closer to 20 minutes a game rather than 25.
Where things get complicated is right now the team IS playing Nurse like a top pairing defenseman and the player is set to be an RFA this summer. Last summer a few noteworthy defensemen received new contracts:
Zach Werenksi - 3 years, 5 million
Charlie McAvoy - 3 years 4.9 million
Ivan Provorov - 6 years 6.75 million
If the Oilers can get Nurse and his camp to agree to a deal closer to that of Werenksi and McAvoy, it will be great value for the organization. However if the team starts edging anywhere close to that Provorov deal things are going to look messy quickly.
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As of today, there is no one else in the organization who guaranteed can replace Nurse in the lineup. Jones has potential but shouldn't be forced into that role until he has more seasoning and raw prospects like Broberg are still a couple years away. Holland and the organization need to be aware of the areas that Nurse excels and struggles in and make a smart decision from there.
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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