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Tomas Tatar: A Buy Low Option? |
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Though the 20/21 season has only just come to a close we are already rapidly approaching a few important dates; Expansion, the Draft, and Free Agency. It's going to be a compressed off-season which should be fun for the fans.
Today we are going to talk about whether it's a good idea for the Oilers to pursue Tomas Tatar in free agency, what he does well, what he struggles with, and where his place should be in the lineup.
Edmonton needs players who can score goals at even strength and that is exactly what Tatar brings to the table. Over the past three seasons, Tatar ranks 74th in the NHL in even strength scoring with 43 goals. That is more production than the likes of other prolific scorers such as Laine, Forsberg, Buchnevich, and Eberle to name a few. Tatar has always been a player with an eye for the net. In his eight year career he has scored at least 20 goals six times. One of those times he didn't score 20 was in his first full NHL season where he scored 19.
The other time he did not was this past season where he only produced 10 goals in 50 games. Even with a shortened season, that is below his average production. He finished 6th on the Canadiens in scoring and averaged the 7th most ice time among Canadiens forwards. He finished the season without scoring in his last 12 games and only appeared in 5 playoff games for Montreal, being healthy scratched the remaining amount of time.
In many cases this is where I would talk about shooting percentages and tell you that the reason Tatar's goal scoring dropped off was a result of bad luck but that is not the case. In the past Tatar has a shooting percentage average of 13%. This year he averaged 12.2% so that really should not account for the decline. The reason his production slipped was he took fewer shots on net. In the 19/20 shortened season, Tatar registered 162 shots on net in 68 games. In 50 games this season he only recorded 82, half the number of his previous year. A big part of this does have to do with his ice-time. In 19/20 Tatar was averaging just over 16 minutes a night in a top six role. This season Tatar was averaging under 15 minutes a game and was at times part of a third line for the Canadiens.
Tatar is a goal scorer and if he isn't getting ample ice time than he isn't going to be scoring as many goals. It's basic math. The issue is if he isn't scoring goals than he isn't bringing too much else to the team which brings us to the playoffs.
Tatar was brought over in a trade from Detroit to Vegas, and was expected to be another useful scorer for that team in their inaugural season. He scored 4 goals in 20 games during his time there and then in the playoffs he was moved to a fourth line role where he only scored a single goal in 8 games and again was scratched. Then he went to Montreal, had a great 25 goal season but the Canadiens missed the playoffs. The following year he scored 22 goals and was not scratched but only scored 2 goals and no assists in 10 playoff games. Finally there was this season where despite making it to the Cup Finals, Tatar only played in 5 playoff games.
Now there are those who will say that Canadiens head coach Dominique Ducharme should have played Tatar more, especially in the Tampa series where the team couldn't score but the fact remains that playoff success, which should be the focus for the Oilers moving forward has not been his strong suit. So with all that said should the Oilers pursue Tatar in free agency? Yes, but he should not be the only top six winger they acquire.
Tatar could be a smart buy low option in the same way that Tyson Barrie was for the Edmonton Oilers. After a down year and not being played in the post-season, something that usually boosts a free agents worth, Tatar is going to have to take a pay cut from his previous 5.3 million dollar salary. At 30 years old, it isn't too late for Tatar to go for one more big pay day contract.
The result could be a deal that I could see being nearly identical to the Barrie one. Sign Tatar to a one year deal with a cap hit of 3.75 million. Holland has a connection with the player as he drafted him in Detroit. In Edmonton, Holland can offer Tatar a chance to play with either McDavid or Draisaitl and rack up the goals and likely a chance to be on the top unit powerplay as well.
That being said Edmonton should not just rely on Tatar and Nuge as their top two left wingers next season and if the team wants to be serious about adding depth they should bring in one more option, such as Blake Coleman for example. If Tatar is not a fit in the top six, he can still produce goals on the third line, bumping up Coleman or another option into the top six.
Edmonton needs scoring depth and that needs to be addressed by more than one new roster add in the top six. Tatar is an excellent option that should be available for cheap but if the Oilers want to be a true contender than they can't afford to only add him and call it a day.