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What Will Edmonton Do If Duncan Keith Retires? |
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Celebrate?
Thanks for reading.
Okay I suppose I can elaborate a bit more. Duncan Keith was brought over in a trade which ended up being the Oilers third round pick and Caleb Jones. Keith was brought in to be a veteran defender on Edmonton's blue line, easy in the likes of Broberg and Bouchard, while helping the Oilers outscore the opposition on the ice, particularly when McDavid or Draisaitl were not present. So how did he do?
Keith played a total of 1065 minutes at 5 on 5 last season. He played 478 minutes without McDavid or Draisaitl and in those minutes the team went 16-18 with him on the ice. Not amazing numbers but they appear a bit more favorable when you look at the team when none of Keith, McDavid, or Draisaitl were on the ice. In 1168 minutes the Oilers were outscored 42-62.
Overall Keith actually had good numbers with the Oilers. Courtesy of PuckIQ when Keith was on the ice the Oilers outscored the opposition 51-38 in all situations. Broken down he went 13-11 against Elites, 19-13 versus Middle Six, and 19-14 against bottom competition.
The Keith and Bouchard pairing ended up being one of the Oilers best options too, especially in the post-season when Nurse was playing with a torn hip flexor. In the regular season with 428 minutes of 5 on 5 play together the Keith-Bouchard pair went 26-15. Keith without Bouchard went 26-23 in 636 minutes and Bouchard without Keith went 36-44 in 876 minutes. On paper at least, this paints a picture that Keith helped to improve Bouchard's game.
So why would the Oilers and fanbase both be collectively hoping that the 38 year old defender is retiring?
The first part of the answer is in the last sentence. Keith is 38 and is about to turn 39. He has been on the decline for a few years now and that will continue with every passing day (your morbid thought for the day). With a decline comes a reduction in footspeed, conditioning, and other critical aspects of the game which are only multiplied coming May and June when the team should be in a lengthy playoff battle.
While the numbers to paint Keith in a decent light, this is one of those times where the eye test does make me pause. While Keith would make some solid outlet passes, every game there were at least two or three moments where he was beat clean by a forward, or lost his own man behind the net, or gave up the puck on an unforced error. His skating is no longer good enough to get him back in the play when he makes these regular mistakes. Overall I thought Bouchard and Keith were the best option for last season based on the roster but moving forward I think Bouchard could do better with a different partner (more on that in a second).
The last reason why it would help the team if Keith were to retire would be his 5.5 million dollar cap hit. Edmonton remains limited in the amount of dollars they have to spend to address the roster and an extra 5.5 million this season would help in both extending the RFA's and bringing in new contracts.
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What would the blueline look like without Keith though and who would the team need to add? The best option might be the most boring. Brett Kulak showed at the end of the regular season and in the post season that he can play solid top four minutes and the 28 year old Edmonton native seemed to enjoy playing in front of his family and friends. Giving Kulak a three or four year deal and having Broberg as a full time NHLer would give the Oilers something like this on the back-end.
Nurse-Ceci
Kulak-Bouchard
Broberg-Barrie
The top two pairings can cover the tougher minutes leaving a Broberg and Barrie duo to hopefully feast on the lesser competition. Ultimately this feels like a fairly lateral defensive group, banking heavily on the improvement of Bouchard and Broberg. Bouchard did steadily improve as last season progressed and really came into his own in the post-season. For Broberg I would expect plenty of ups and downs in his first full season.
Bringing back Kulak in my opinion is an absolute must (regardless of if Keith does or does not retire) and I expect Broberg to be given a legitimate shot as a top six defender. The only other area of movement that we could see on the blueline would be Tyson Barrie.
Tyson Barrie has two more years on his contract at 4.5 million. Barrie is still reliable in that he is an offensive defenseman but the Oilers already have Evan Bouchard who can handle the PP minutes. Barrie could be traded to clear cap or he could be traded to a team in need of a PP quarterback. A Barrie for Soucy deal remains one of the most plausible I could see if the Kraken miss out on Klingberg.
The fact that Broberg can play either the left or right side gives Holland even more flexibility in looking for another player. Looking purely at the UFA crop from this off-season, Holland could target Justin Braun on the right side with Broberg on the left, or Edler on the left side with Broberg on the right. Ben Chiarot, Nick Leddy, or heck maybe P.K. Subban.
These are varying degrees of usefullness to Edmonton but the point is that with Keith's 5.5 million off the books the Oilers suddenly have legitimate options for a more affordable replacement.
With each passing day that we don't have confirmation on Keith's return, the more likely I would say it is that the veteran and future Hall of Fame defenseman retires. Until then we wait.
Thanks for reading.
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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