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Will RNH Regress Like Kyle Turris

June 22, 2021, 12:31 PM ET [11 Comments]
Sean Maloughney
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Talks continue between Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Ken Holland to sign the centre/winger to a deal that will make sense for both sides. Nuge is coming off of a tough year and while it likely should just be called a bad season and we can all move on there should be some concern in his future. RNH's last contract gave the team an annual cap hit of 6 million per season. We are also dealing with a flat cap for likely the next three seasons or longer. If RNH signs another deal around his previous 6 million dollar cap and then he continues to struggle, that will greatly hurt the Oilers Cup chances moving forward.

As I mentioned above, RNH had a rough year and he should be able to bounce back but if he doesn't, there is a player currently on the Oilers roster that could be the worst case scenario. If you read the title you know I am speaking about Kyle Turris.

At their best, Kyle Turris and Ryan Nugent Hopkins were highly similar players. Here was the scouting report from Kyle Turris on the day he was drafted:

A two-way center, Turris oozes skill. He has great hockey sense and passing ability. Can also pick a spot with his quick wrist shot. Skates very well, has an effortless stride.


Oilers fans should look at that description and immediately think of Nuge; a high hockey IQ, known for his passing, two way game and a deadly wrist shot. Looking at their careers there are some similarities to glean as well. I took a look at Nugent-Hopkins numbers to date and compared them to what Kyle Turris accomplished up to when he was 28 years old (the same age Nuge is now).

Games Played
Nugent Hopkins: 656
Turris: 609
Total Goals
Nugent Hopkins: 185
Turris: 149

EV Goals
Nugent Hopkins: 132
Turris: 113

EV Assists
Nugent Hopkins: 170
Turris: 141

PP Goals
Nugent Hopkins: 50
Turris: 33


In terms of point totals, both players produced at a similar pace with Nuge obviously the superior player. It took Turris longer to establish himself but once he did he was a legitimate top six forward. After turning 29 years old, Turris took a dive in his production. Here are his last four seasons.
2017/2018: 76GP - 16-35-51 - 28 Years Old
2018/2019: 55GP - 7-16-23 - 29 Years Old
2019/2020: 62GP - 9-22-31 - 30 Years Old
2020/2021: 27GP - 2-3-5 - 31 Years Old


Turris' decline was noticeable at first and then fell sharply off a cliff. Watching him play in Edmonton this last season, Turris was slow, lacking the ability to finish, and quite simply not a full time NHL player.

Now after writing all of this, my point is not to state that RNH=Turris and that this is the beginning of the end of his career. Ken Holland and the Oilers simply need to tread very carefully with what a potential Ryan Nugent Hopkins contract could look like, especially because the player just had arguably the worst year of his career.

This same philosophy should be applied to any potential free agent signing. Zach Hayman is 29 years old, Brandon Saad will be 29 in October, Blake Coleman is 29 and will be 30 in November. All of these are potential free agent signings for the Oilers and like any free agent they each come with risk due to their age.

Whether we are talking about Nugent Hopkins or any other free agent, it is going to be up to Ken Holland and his pro scouting department to evaluate the players and decide how much risk there is in the future for offering a long term contract.

Thanks for reading.
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