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Senators Acquire Linus Ullmark From Bruins |
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By Ken Hawkins (a.k.a. khawk)
After weeks of speculation, GM Steve Staios has made his first major mark on the Senators’ roster by acquiring G Linus Ullmark from the Boston Bruins. In truth, these rumours extend back to the trade deadline, and in many ways reflect the tenacious patience that Staios has exhibited since being hired mid-season. What remained unclear was the extent to which Ullmark would be willing to bend on the modified NTC in his contract, and what kind of return the Bruins would seek in return. On Monday we got our answer, and on both fronts it was generally positive from the Senators’ perspective.
The deal essentially breaks down as follows: OTT receives G Linus Ullmark ($5.0M AAV x 1 year), while BOS gets a 1st round pick in the 2024 NHL entry draft (25th overall), G Joonas Korpisalo with 25% salary retention ($3.0M AAV x 4 years), and C Mark Kastelic ($0.8M AAV x 1 year). Objectively, the best player in the deal is going the Senators’ direction, which is a good start. More importantly, the trade directly addresses what had been widely regarded as a roster weakness. There is also a symbolic relevance to this trade, in that it combines two of former GM Pierre Dorion’s most notable failures - the poor DeBrincat trade return and the questionable Korpisalo UFA contract - into a far more positive direction for the team.
To further assess this trade, it may be helpful to employ a basic SWOT analysis framework - which considers strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats.
Strengths
For a team with an almost comedic history of mediocre goaltending, Linus Ullmark represents a significant upgrade. Last year wasn’t as good as his Vezina Trophy season, but Ullmark still managed a 2.55 GAA and 0.915 sv%. Both were top-10 among NHL goaltenders that played 30GP or more, and represent the kinds of numbers OTT hasn’t seen since Craig Anderson in his prime. And in terms of the trade itself, it’s almost magic that Staios was able to include Joonas Korpisalo in this deal, even with a 25% salary retention. Korpisalo will no doubt be more effective with the Bruins playing in front of him, but the reclamation of $3M AAV x 4 years of cap space from the Korpisalo contract is a major plus for the Senators.
Weaknesses
If there’s a significant weakness to Ullmark, it’s that he’s yet to prove that he can be an effective full-time #1G. He’s only played in more than 41GP once in his career, which is 14GP fewer than Korpisalo played for OTT last season. And despite his recent Vezina Trophy, he was clearly outplayed by Jeremy Swayman last season in BOS. His playoff numbers will also be a question mark, where his GAA is a full 1.08 higher than his career regular season average, while his playoff sv% is .031 lower. It's also no secret that there’s a major difference in the quality of team defence played by BOS vs. OTT, so the success of this experiment may hinge on Staios making additional roster improvements.
Opportunities
Ullmark will be given the reins in goal next year, and expected to prove that he can get the job done as a clear-cut #1G in front of a younger team that’s still developing their defensive system. Some will point to his age as a concern, however he’s not much older than Craig Anderson was when he was first traded to the Senators back in 2010/11, and it’s reasonable to expect a few productive years ahead. The hope is that mutual success will result in a long-term tenure for Ullmark, where he can provide much-needed goaltending stability to this high-potential young team. In the longer-term there’s also an opportunity for Ullmark to provide solid mentorship & support to young G Mads Sogaard, who’s had a solid run of AHL development and will soon be knocking on the NHL door.
Threats
The most obvious threat in this trade is the lack of a contract extension beyond the coming season. However, it’s not unreasonable for Ullmark to expect to have the opportunity to ensure that there’s a workable future in OTT before signing what will likely be his last major UFA contract. And it’s apparently true that Ullmark agreed to waive his M-NTC to be traded to OTT, so he’s at least aware of the potential opportunity that it represents. There could also be significant influence coming from veteran impending-UFA Claude Giroux, as well as assistant coach and fellow countryman Daniel Alfredsson. But much will depend on the mutual success of both Ullmark and the Senators next season in terms of establishing how long he will be wearing a Senators uniform.
The Verdict
If the Senators can eventually negotiate a contract extension with Linus Ullmark, this will undoubtedly be regarded as a major trade win for OTT. However, that is no foregone conclusion, and the fact that there is no conditional element to the trade based on Ullmark resigning may reflect the barriers that BOS believe still lie ahead in that process. However, even without an extension in place they have brought closure to the Korpisalo fiasco and given the team a far more legitimate chance at success. Staios has effectively set a high bar for the coming season, and seems prepared to continue to add quality to the roster to help achieve that goal. As such, it’s hard not to conclude that the Senators have done some pretty good work here.
What do you think of the Linus Ullmark trade? Feel free to post your comments below, and as always thanks for reading!
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