Hockey's most surprising story is no longer a surprise.
If anything, Vegas is just getting better, as these score and venue-adjusted 5v5 numbers indicate:
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(After 11/25/17's win over the Coyotes, the Knights were 15-6-1. At that point, I released a quarter-season stats review. Since then, they're 14-4-1.)
While the Golden Knights' Overall Team Shooting % has fallen, their Overall Save % has made up some of the difference:
View post on imgur.com
This post-Thanksgiving netminding improvement can be traced, of course, to Malcolm Subban and Marc-Andre Fleury's returns.
I would expect the team's shooting to continue to cool; Fleury will slow down too, as Subban has recently.
I'm not forecasting a collapse, merely that Fleury/Subban's combined .800 Winning % (20-4-1) won't last. Nor will Fleury's .945 Save %.
But anyway, concurrent with stronger goaltending has been a better penalty kill.
Going back to December 8th in Nashville, they've snuffed out 35 of their last 38 penalties. A PK which was 19th in the league through November 25th (78.9) has risen to 15th (81.3); these underlying stats suggest continued improvment is very possible:
• 72.97 PK Fenwick Against/60 (8th in NHL)
• 6.51 PK Expected Goals Against/60 (5)
• 51.92 PK Scoring Chances Against/60 (4)
• 20.19 PK High-Danger Corsi Against/60 (10)
Also helpful is the fact that Vegas doesn't take a lot of penalties to begin with: Their 3.09 Minor Penalties/60 is fourth in the league.
The power play, however, is trending the other way. A 21.0 % success rate (13th in league) through November 25th has dropped to 18.3 (19). The underlying numbers suggest that the Knights simply aren't getting enough chances:
• 50.46 PP Scoring Chances For/60 (27)
• 18.52 PP High-Danger Corsi For/60 (26)
• 6.48 PP Expected Goals For/60 (25)
Going back to the big picture, it's not a stretch to say that Vegas is due for
some market correction. They're on pace for 120 points. Since the introduction of the shootout in 2005-06, only three teams have reached that mark (2015-16 Capitals, 2009-10 Capitals, 2005-06 Red Wings).
One area where we might see such a correction is their NHL-leading one-goal game Winning % -- .737 with a 14-3-2 record.
Another is their remarkable comeback record -- the Knights are the best comeback team in the league:
• .455 Win % Trailing After 1 Period (1)
• .400 Win % Trailing After 2 Periods (1)
Gerald Gallant attributed these accomplishments to consistent consistency, "We try to play 60 minutes the same way every night."
Alex Tuch expanded, but along the same vein, "We try to play a simple game. When you play a simple game and you play together, even if the other team scores a couple goals on us, it's a lot easier to come back. If you start getting away from your game, you make it harder on yourself."
Nate Schmidt offered a more character-based reason, "Our style of play and our accountability [are responsible]. No one is in the locker room panicking about the next guy when you're down in a game.
"That's one of the best attributes of a team, when you get down in a game, you're looking at trying to pull the next guy with you instead of looking to see if somebody else can do it. That's one of the bigger things that I've really liked about our team."
Whatever the reasons, I expect this expansion squad to win the division, market correction be damned.
Since the advent of the shootout, and counting only the full seasons, the Pacific Division has been won by an average of 109 points -- the high was San Jose in 2008-09 with 117 points, the low was Phoenix in 2011-12 with 97 points. This year, I think a lower number will do it, as injuries and age have beset the traditional powers, while inconsistency has dogged the up-and-comers.
Anyway, as Bobby Clarke noted a couple weeks ago
in this space, "You're not talking about a team trying to make the playoffs. You're talking now about a team that is looking at how far they can go in the playoffs."
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Striking half-season stats from Vegas forwards, defenders, and goalies will be coming soon, along with quotes. Among them: What's William Karlsson's most impressive non-goalscoring figure? Alex Tuch leads the Knights in what unusual scoring department? Which stat does Shea Theodore share with just two other defensemen this year?
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Stats as of 1/11/18, courtesy of Corsica, Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, and Sporting Charts.
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