Marc-Andre Fleury has signed a three-year, $21 million dollar extension with Vegas. Added onto Fleury's current pact, which expires after this coming season, Flower will backstop the Golden Knights until 2022.
There's a lot to be happy about.
The 33-year-old Fleury is still goaltending at a high level, as evidenced by a career-high fifth-place finish in the Vezina ballot and a Conn Smythe-caliber postseason. And there is perhaps no "face of the franchise" more affable than Flower.
There's also a lot to worry about.
Goaltending performance drops off when netminders are in their 30s. And veteran NHL starters aren't supposed to have career seasons at 33.
Taken literally, George McPhee is right, goalies are more likely to play into their late-30s than skaters.
Keep in mind that Fleury will be 37 in 2022. In the last century, 6,945 skaters have suited up for an NHL game. Just 324 of them -- 4.7% -- have played a 37-or-older campaign. Meanwhile, 765 goalies have appeared in an NHL contest. 55 of them -- 7.2% -- have competed in a 37+ campaign.
So indeed, a puckstopper is likely to play for longer. But how good will Fleury be?
Let's use this quick-and-dirty methodology -- first, how many goalies have had 20+ Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) campaigns in their 30s?
(Here's a definition of GSAA, from Greg Balloch of InGoal Magazine: "Take the league’s average save percentage and apply it to the amount of shots a particular goalie has faced. You get a number of goals that the average goalie in that league would have surrendered if they faced the same number of shots as the goaltender in question. That number gets compared to the number of goals surrendered by that goaltender, and a plus/minus is created.
"If a goalie is in the positive, that is how many goals they have saved compared to a league-average goalie. If they are in the negative, then it is safe to assume that they are performing worse than how a league-average goaltender would perform in the same situation.")
Since 1955-56, there have been just 252 20+ GSAA campaigns. That's an exceptional handful per season. Last year, five goaltenders attained that mark: Pekka Rinne, John Gibson, Antti Raanta, Connor Hellebuyck, and Fleury.
A 30-or-older goalie has been responsible for 88 20+ GSAA campaigns. Compare that to 164 by age 18-29 netminders.
Breaking down the age groups even further throws things into sharper relief.
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Anyway, I'm not breaking any news here. In general, goalies, like all athletes, don't age gracefully into their late-30s.
There are, of course, exceptions. Dominik Hasek, Johnny Bower, Jacques Plante, and Gump Worsley -- all in the Hockey Hall of Fame, I might add -- form a select group of 39-or-older netminders who showed off 20+ GSAA seasons. Patrick Roy, Ed Belfour, and Tony Esposito notched 20+ GSAA during their age-37 campaigns.
Will Fleury, like these Hall of Famers, be the exception to the rule?
As mentioned before, veteran NHL starters aren't supposed to enjoy career seasons at 33. Fleury's 20.77 with the Golden Knights is almost double his previous career-high 10.58 in 2007-08.
"Veteran NHL starter" is an important qualifier. There are examples of late-bloomers becoming stars in their 30s -- Bower and Tim Thomas leap to mind. The 34-year-old Bower was buried in the minors before embarking on a decade of excellence with the Maple Leafs. The 31-year-old Thomas bounced around between the AHL and Europe before stealing Andrew Raycroft's job.
But when you've been in the league as long as Fleury, you're usually a known quantity. And before last season, he was, at best, an above-average starter.
In Las Vegas, however, Fleury became one of just 22 33-or-older netminders to register a 20+ GSAA.
Did any of these puckstoppers jump from above-average to elite in their mid-30s? And keep it up?
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Belfour, Martin Brodeur, Tony Esposito, and Glenn Hall had put up 20+ GSAA in their 20s. In other words, we knew they were this good pretty early on. Bower, we've discussed. Let's hold on Sean Burke.
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Hasek, Curtis Joseph, Mike Liut, Plante, Rinne, Roy, Billy Smith, John Vanbiesbrouck, Tomas Vokoun, and Worsley had posted 20+ GSAA in their 20s. Thomas, we've talked about. Let's look at Cesare Maniago, Evgeni Nabokov, Dwayne Roloson, and Ron Tugnutt.
I think Maniago, Roloson, and Tugnutt can be counted as late-bloomers. The trio spent most of their 20s in the minors or backing up; ironically, they each benefited from expansion. Maniago and Tugnutt were, respectively, the Minnesota North Stars and Columbus's inaugural starting goalies, while Roloson was the Wild's second-year main man. Anyway, in terms of career tracks, they're more akin to Bower and Thomas.
We can also eliminate Nabokov. He posted a pair of 18+ GSAA campaigns in his 20s and his age-34 22.37 in 2009-10 was his peak. His highest GSAA after this year was 0.33.
This leaves Burke as a possible road map for Fleury to follow.
After a winding, up-and-down starting career, which took him through New Jersey, Hartford, Carolina, Vancouver, Philadelphia, and Florida -- his highest GSAA up to this point was 16.61 in 1995-96 -- at the age of 34, Burke flashed a league-leading 32.84 GSAA in Arizona. This would kick off a three-year run with a combined 67.29 GSAA, topping
all goalies from 2000-03, including Roy, Brodeur, Jose Theodore, and Roberto Luongo.
Besides Burke, however, there aren't a lot of examples of goalies
sustaining the leap from above-average starter to elite in their 30s.
The Golden Knights are betting that Fleury will buck the trend. As of now, only four puckstoppers -- Carey Price, Sergei Bobrovsky, Henrik Lundqvist, and Fleury -- have a $7.0 million AAV or higher for 2019-20.
Ironically, the 6'4" Burke was probably closer to the "lumbering type" that McPhee is referring to. This quote may also be a window into the analytics -- evaluating body types or athleticism -- that the Knights may have employed when deciding to re-up Fleury.
But I wonder why they didn't just extend Flower sometime during the coming season, after a longer look at his performance. Paying a 30+ netminder for an out-of-nowhere career year -- especially the summer
before he hits unrestricted free agency -- is questionable.
Be that as it may, I think Vegas should have waited.
Fleury isn't likely to get more expensive or attract a wealth of suitors next summer, no matter how well he plays. Frankly, the market for 34-year-old UFA netminders isn't robust.
But instead of waiting to see if Fleury would bring his expansion-year form into next season, the Golden Knights have pushed their chips in early.
History says the odds are against Fleury sustaining last year's success over the life of the extension.
Fleury enters this training camp as one of the best goalies in the league, but chances are, he won't leave Las Vegas on top.
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Last week, RFA Colin Miller re-signed for four years, $15.5 million ($3.875 million AAV).
That leaves Tomas Nosek and William Karlsson to arbitration. Nosek is scheduled for 7/29, while Karlsson on 8/4 will be the NHL's last arbitration case.
Karlsson, of course, shapes up to be the most interesting arbitration case of the summer. What do you pay a thought-to-be single-digit goalscorer who drops 43 out of nowhere?
Speaking of Karlsson, let's talk Erik. Last week, he was going to Dallas. Then Tampa Bay. Of course, neither came to pass.
I believe Vegas is still in the running.
The cap space for Erik Karlsson and Bobby Ryan still exists.
Placing David Clarkson's $5.25 million AAV on LTIR, the Knights have $20.125 million space. Erik Karlsson/Bobby Ryan will cost $13.75 million against the cap this year. That leaves $6.375 million for William Karlsson, Nosek, and William Carrier, which is tight. But there's some breathing room if you trade Oscar Lindberg ($1.7 million) or send down Daniel Carr ($750K).
Anything can happen when we're talking about a special player like Karlsson. But I predict Ottawa will trade him before the season starts and to Vegas. At this point, it's the most logical destination, especially if Dallas won't part with Miro Heiskanen and Tampa Bay can't clear the cap space.
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Finally, Vadim Shipachyov torches the city of Las Vegas and the Golden Knights organization:
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Stats as of 6/15/18, courtesy of Corsica, Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, and Sporting Charts.
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