Tell-Tale Trends Emerging From Losses
Like most of you, I read the very well written and no-less apt piece by Katie Carrera, the Washington Post's Capitals Insider along with Tarik El-Bashir,
on the Capitals 3rd period troubles.
The focus of her article was in pin-pointing the minor but significant lapses that had led to late-game breakdowns in 5 of the Capitals 6 losses.
While I have nothing to argue against the post myself,
I did feel the need to add a more in-depth explanation to Ms. Carrera's accurate observations.
Using advanced statistics, courtesy of the stats engines over at
www.powerscouthockey.com, to provide a visual interpretation of precisely when and why Washington is collapsing in those specific games, I quickly learned that there are a couple of key factors that are costing the Caps points they could have otherwise earned.
Here's a look at one of those games in particular;
As you can see, it's quite evident by the graphs where the Caps went wrong.
Or, perhaps more accurately, collapsed.
While the Caps allowed 3 goals against the Stars in the 3 period, that was not the only contest in which they've done that.
As a matter of fact, in 5 of 6 losses, the game has come down to one period in each contest where the Caps ultimately forfeited their chances to win.
Combined, in 5 specific periods (all 3rd periods except for one) from those 5 losses, the Caps have allowed 14 goals while scoring but once.
In each of the 5 losses in question, the Caps entered the 3rd period tied with their opponent.
In 4 of the 5 losses, the crushing blow from their opponents came from back-to-back goals.
These elements are truly minor considering the Caps are still 10-5-1 on the year, yet when delving deeper into why the Caps are losing games this year, the sad truth is that it is the same bad habits which have cost them in the past.
Quick collapses due to their lack of killer instinct.
Though Washington tends to put their opponents away rather handily in the games they do win, the root of the games that they are losing is ultimately their finish.
So, while last night's loss to the Preds held traces of the quick collapses which cost the Caps 4 of their first 5 losses, the truth was that it was their strongest performance in a losing cause all season.
Despite dropping the game in the final minute of action, the Caps showed tremendous improvement over the earlier losses, pressing Nashville all game long and losing only due to a late game lapse that came after numerous opportunities that were stone-walled by Pekka Rinne.
With 5 examples of what not to do in order to avoid losing, Bruce Boudreau can be happy knowing that his well managed bench is providing the overall results he's in search of. Yet, the other thing the Caps losses tell us is that they tend to fade in quiet games, something that could perhaps be solved by mixing up the lines once in awhile so as to spark the team in those moments when they need it most.
I will be back with more in time for tomorrow's tilt with the Jets.
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