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Wild Card Team? Werenski Trade? Korpi an elite goalie?

August 21, 2019, 11:56 AM ET [9 Comments]
Thomas Townsend
Columbus Blue Jackets Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
If you notice the title statements are not actually statements, but questions. And those question marks should be in large font and bold.

Wild Card Team?

Can the Jackets grab a playoff spot this season? I agree they will not win the division and are unlikely to even finish in the top 3 of the Metro. That leaves us talking about Wild Card spots. Here is a brief view into the Eastern Conference teams for 2020.

Last years playoff teams:

Capitals: Finished 1st in the Metro, 3rd in the East and 4th in the NHL. Since 2007 the Caps have missed the playoffs only once (2014) and you have to go back to 2015 to find the Caps dethroned as Metro Division Champs. To say they are a perennial playoff team would be an understatement. They may not win the Metro this season, but you can pencil them in as a playoff team.

Lightning: Presidents Cup, check; Best Regular Season Record Ever (tie), check; advance in the playoffs... Obviously, I enjoy picking on the Lightning. Most will say they choked, in Columbus fans think differently. But, the truth is that TBL will go in one of two directions. Is this the start of a decline or will they continue their dominance? I'm sticking my neck out and saying this is the start of a decline. Make note, I still believe they are a playoff team this season, but after a 62 win season it is hard to say they are going to be better. Talent in undeniable, motivation should be there, but they may have peaked in the regular season last year. They make the playoffs and likely advance but I don't think they come close to a Cup Final this year.

Bruins: Similar to the Caps, these guys are always in. In fact, since 2007 they have only missed the playoffs 2 seasons (2015 & 2016). I don't see this team slowing down and even with an injury to Pastrnak last season they still cruised into the playoffs. Can't wait to see that first round match up with the Leafs again in 2020.

Maple Leafs: Looking at the UFAs and RFAs following the 2020 season, this is do-or-die time for Toronto. They have the fire power up front (even without Marner) and added pieces on the back end in Ceci, Barrie and Muzzin (for a full season). There will be urgency from this team. If they can ignore the media pressure and the distractions (mainly Marner) this could result in a run to the Conference Finals (or Cup).

Islanders: They surprised everyone last year, didn't they. That is unlikely to happen this season. While the coaching will get the most out of this team I'm not sure the goaltending holds up for a second straight year. Varlamov looks to be their hope in net this season. He was displaced as the starter in COL and didn't play at all in the playoffs. In fact he hasn't been in a playoff game since 2014 and has only played in 26 total playoff games. I see the Isles on the outside looking in this season.

Penguins: Describe the Pittsburgh Penguins in one word: OLD. That this is my own subjective statement but I weigh the age of the team with more emphases on their star players rather than their role players. Malkin, Crosby, Letang, Hornqvist and Johnson are all over 30. I realize that all of these guys are not 'stars' but the big 3 of Malkin, Crosby and Letang are all in there. This may be the year that the Pens front office really has to make some decisions about the future. Early spring tee times for these guys this year.

Hurricanes: This is another team that was quietly good last season. The young players played well, journeymen goalies had career seasons and veterans showed the way (all the way to the Conference Finals). In the off season they made incremental, prudent moves that serve the team now and in the future. The big question is, was it enough. They Canes will be a better team, but other teams have significantly upgraded. For this reason I see them missing out in 2020.

Teams Ready to Make the Jump (maybe):

Rangers: This is a talented team, they added the best UFA on the market and the best (or second best) player in the draft. Of course they are in, right? They will be relying on youth, star power and strong goaltending. Lundqvist is no spring chicken. The youth has talent, but do they have any leadership to guide them? Rangers start hot and fade, maybe into a Wild Card spot, maybe out altogether.

Panthers: They were on the cusp last year, added significantly where they needed it and kept their core together. They are this year's sexy pick and with good reason. Bob steadies this team where Luo could not, they make it into the mix in 2020.

Flyers: Did this team underachieve last year? According to the Ek-wonder-picking-3000-predictor they should have been in the playoffs even after they were mathematically eliminated in 2019. Is Carter Hart the real deal? Can Hayes live up to that off-season contract? Will Provorov sign before camp or hold out? Their are a ton of questions for the Flyers to answer. One thing is true, when you count these guys out they pull together you. They come together and are a surprisingly top Eastern Conference team this year. IN!

Devils: Added through the draft, added via Trade, added in free agency (less dynamic) and have added by key players getting healthy. Failed to address the Cory Schneider situation. He is 33 years old and has a career 2.40 GAA with a .919 Sv%. Those a good numbers, but let's look closer. Over the most recent 3 seasons his lowest GAA was 2.82 and highest Sv% was .908. He has totaled 4 shutouts over 126 games. I'm also not sure that adding P.K. on the blue line helps address defensive stability. They come close and could be the last team in.

The Rest of the East:

Canadians: This group came within an eyelash of playing in the playoffs last season. But the Eastern Conference teams all seemed to beef up while Montreal failed to make any significant moves. The trades they made landed them some futures, but nothing to help this years club. I see a high draft pick in their future.

Red Wings: Rebuild. Larkin will spend another year in the NHL with little NHL talent around him. Howard and/or Bernier could have a renaissance but I'm not sure even that would be enough to get them in.

Sabres: True Wild Card. They were 22 points out of a playoff spot last season. Ended with just 33 wins and 10 OTL. They are my candidate for biggest point increase year-over-year. But, they could add 20 points to their total and still not make the playoffs. Carter Hutton can be an everyday goalie. Tage Thompson can have a breakout season and add depth to this team. Dahlin can become a top 10 defensmen. The question that looms is will these things come to pass this season? I think it comes together for them and they are the NYI of 2020.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Caps, Lightning, Bruins, Leafs, Panthers, Flyers, Sabres and....Blue Jackets. I am an optimist when it comes to my hometown team. It is a homer pick and I agree I should be ridiculed for it. There is a solid core, strong defense and, I believe, high potential goaltending.

The Werenski signing concerns me. It was mentioned on this website that there is the potential for swapping RFAs and Provorov landing here. If he is traded, there will be NHL level return. If signed the CBJ keep a strong D-man that could be mentioned in top 20 position lists.

Then there is the goalie discussion. Leaving Elvis out of this as there is no NHL sample to even discuss, we will look at Korpi. Looking at his career numbers is not pretty: 2.89 GAA and .907 Sv%. The problem with looking at these number is that they were always with inconsistent starts and playing time. In the 2018-2019 season he had a consistent run of starts (or playing time) from December 27 through February 2. In that time he played in 8 of 15 games. Not exactly consistent playing time but the most consistent of 2019. That stretch saw him make 194 saves and give up 14 goals. That is a Sv% of .932. Also, going back to 2015-2016 when he started 30 games (16-11-4 record), he had a Sv% of .920. He played 12 games in the month of February that season going 7-3-2 with Sv% of .922. That was on a CBJ team that won on 34 games. Jack Johnson and Fedor Tyutin were the Jackets top pair on D back then.

Is Korpi elite? No. Could he be? Maybe. In short stints he has played well. When he gets inconsistent work, he is notably inconsistent. He is not as bad as sportswriters make him out to be, I would even argue that he could end up in the top 12 or 15 in Sv% this season. And that would certainly be enough for this CBJ team to find themselves in the playoff hunt.

Thank you for reading.
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