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With absolutely nothing happening in the hockey world right now, and for the foreseeable future, I’ve decided to take the plunge and write player profiles for each member of the Calgary Flames.
As was the case when I did them last summer, we’ll be looking at the season they just put together and expectations moving forward.
I’ve written up 19 players thus far, with Tobias Rieder being the most recent.
Today we’re going with Erik Gustafsson.
Counting stats (Chicago included): 66 games played, 29 points (six goals, 23 assists), 20:23 average time on ice (18:01 in CGY)
5v5 underlyings: 0.93 points/60, +0.43 CF% Rel, +5.15 GF% Rel, -2.60 xGF% Rel, 102.5 PDO
2019-20 review: There’s peaking too soon, and then there’s what Erik Gustafsson did a season ago. He parlayed ~22 minutes per night, PP1 usage, and inflated percentages – he shot almost 11%, which is absurd for a defenseman – into 17 goals and 60 points in 79 games. Unfortunately, that wasn’t his contract year. This was, and his production was sliced in half. His SH% dipped nearly 5%, his power play performance declined, and he produced 5v5 points at the lowest rate of his career.
All that said, he still had a fairly solid season. Gustafsson produced at a 36-point pace over 82 games. He averaged more points/60 at 5v5 than Mikhail Sergachev, Mark Giordano, Oscar Klefbom and Seth Jones. That’s still impressive.
Were there some defensive miscues along the way? Sure. But, at the end of the day, he finished with a positive on-ice goal differential at 5v5 for the fourth consecutive season.
I realize he wasn’t used on the matchup pairing or anything but it’s hard to play 20+ minutes a night and be completely sheltered. You still have to go out and play, and the results Gustafsson garnered suggests he did a good job of that.
Fun fact(s): Although Gustafsson’s production did take a hit this season, he still ranks 10th among defensemen in 5v5 points over the last two years. Erik Karlsson, Shea Weber, Victor Hedman, Alex Pietrangelo and Zach Werenski are just a few of the players he has out-produced.
2020-21 outlook: Gustafsson will play 18-20 minutes a night on an offensive-minded pairing, and see power play time, regardless of which team he’s suiting up for. It’s hard to say who that will be.
I think his production being sliced in half this year will help make the cost of a new deal much more affordable, which could very well open up the door for a return in Calgary.
I don’t know that I’d say it is likely but the Flames wanted another puck-mover/offensively gifted defender to begin with – there’s a reason they traded for him in the first place – and potentially losing T.J. Brodie would only make matters worse. Beyond that, Travis Hamonic has generally played top-4 minutes and I’d be surprised if he returns.
I think Brodie would be the biggest priority of the bunch but, should he and Hamonic walk, I think the Flames could take a real run at extending Gustafsson. If the price is reasonable, of course.
Though the blueline would still need some TLC, a group featuring Mark Giordano, Rasmus Andersson, Noah Hanifin, Juuso Valimaki, Oliver Kylington and Gustafsson wouldn’t be the worst to build around. It’d need more stability – particularly on the right side – but the upside is there.
Note: I wouldn't be surprised if Hanifin and/or Kylington are shopped to address other needs (right defense, scoring wingers, etc.) and I'd be on board with that.
numbers via naturalstattrick.com and hockey-reference.com
Recent posts:
2020-21 player profile: Sean Monahan
2020-21 player profile: Johnny Gaudreau
2020-21 player profile: Travis Hamonic
2020-21 player profile: David Rittich
2020-21 player profile: Cam Talbot
2020-21 player profile: Milan Lucic
2020-21 player profile: Mark Giordano
2020-21 player profile: Dillon Dube
2020-21 player profile: Andrew Mangiapane
2020-21 player profile: Sam Bennett
2020-21 player profile: T.J. Brodie
2020-21 player profile: Mikael Backlund
2020-21 player profile: Noah Hanifin
2020-21 player profile: Elias Lindholm
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