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Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Vancouver Canucks:
1. Defensive lapses. The Canucks were a disaster in their own zone a season ago. Nothing has changed. They are giving up shot attempts, scoring chances, expected goals, and actual goals at a higher rate than every team in the league at 5v5. Yes, you read that correctly. They’ve been worse defensively than the likes of Ottawa and Detroit. It is bad; real bad. While they’ve had some time off to try and tighten things up, there is only so much coaching can do. This seems like a good Get Right spot for a Flames team that ranks 4th in 5v5 chances/60 but 18th in shooting percentage. The top-end looks should be there, and it’s only a matter of time before they start to go.
2. An edge in goal. Vancouver’s defense has been putrid to date. They haven’t gotten much help from the goaltending, though. Both Thatcher Demko and Braden Holtby possess save percentages of .900 (or worse) at 5v5, ranking them bottom-4 among the 28 most utilized goaltenders this season. Jacob Markstrom, by comparison, sits 5th with a .936 save percentage in that game state; better than the likes of John Gibson, Carey Price, and Connor Hellebuyck. If all else is equal, or even close, the Flames still figure to have a good chance of winning tonight because of a massive advantage between the pipes.
3. Special teams play. Only San Jose, Montreal, and Boston have spent more time shorthanded per game than Vancouver. They take *a lot* of penalties. While the Flames are more disciplined, they’re not exactly saints. They rank 11th in shorthanded time on ice per game. If both teams live up to their averages, we’ll see ~15 minutes in penalties tonight. That’s a quarter of the game. Winning that 15 minutes could go a long way towards earning two points.
4. Lotto line struggles. Believe it or not, the J.T. Miller - Elias Pettersson - Brock Boeser line has been at the forefront of Vancouver’s struggles. Despite Vancouver shooting 16% – 16%! – at 5v5 with that trio on the ice, they own a negative goal differential. Deservedly so. The Canucks are controlling 44% of the attempts, and 40% of the expected goals with them out there. That’s stunning. If they can’t find a way to take it up a couple notches, the Canucks will continue to pile up the losses because, simply put, their bottom-6 is not going to win them many – any? – games.
5. Continued dominance. Andrew Mangiapane has a 70 xGF% this season. That is absurd to post over a few games, let alone 12. He is absolutely feasting on opposing bottom-6’s and I’d expect more of the same tonight. Vancouver is expected to ice a B6 of Bailey, Gaudette, Sutter, Roussel, Beagle, and MacEwen. No combination of that group is going to be effective against the Bread Man, and his line, with how well he’s playing. I’d expect another impactful game from him.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
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